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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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6 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Or those models assumed no social distancing and we’re having an effect. 

Or it wasn't nearly as bad as predicted based on the cruise ships that provided perfect experiments that could be extrapolated onto larger populations. Nevertheless, this horrible precedent has been set for future occurrences. So next time the flu is bad we can expect life to be shut down. 

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5 minutes ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Password just changed. “truckerbabes6969” was too obvious I guess. 

No wonder he was on it.

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8 minutes ago, Bob said:

 

 

 

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EUz1loyUwAIk18T?format=png&name=small

Notice Sweden looks like all the other curves

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34 minutes ago, Bob said:

EUz1loyUwAIk18T?format=png&name=small

Notice Sweden looks like all the other curves

No one is disputing test and trace isn’t a viable and better strategy.  We just weren’t prepared and reacted way to slowly.  Perhaps we will get a pandemic office back that will react faster in test develop and have a more effective resource plan. 

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Trump said people with Lupus couldn't get get CoronaVirus.  So I'm I'm looking to get just a little bit Lupus. Anyone know how to get it a little bit?

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5 hours ago, sactowndog said:

I know some blame Trump, others blame the Chinese,  some blame Cuomo but the real root cause has been discovered.  
 

it’s all the +++++ing Canadians fault

1918 - Toronto wins Stanley Cup
1919 - Stanley Cup canceled

1993 - Toronto wins World Series
1994 - World Series canceled

2019 - Toronto wins NBA Finals
2020 - ...
 

God forbid Toronto wins anything again in the future.   

prove american GIF

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13 minutes ago, rudolro said:

Trump said people with Lupus couldn't get get CoronaVirus.  So I'm I'm looking to get just a little bit Lupus. Anyone know how to get it a little bit?

Did he really?   I find it hard to believe but when does the piece of shit stop going on TV and making unproven medical statements?  At what point do people like @Bob, who would never accept such behavior from anyone else, pull their heads out of their asses and realize how worthless this POTUS is. 

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6 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Holy smokes! We need to invade right now!

"Canadian Bacon" starring John Candy, Alan Alda, Rip Torn and more brought to life. Synopsis:

Quote

The U.S. President, low in the opinion polls, gets talked into raising his popularity by trying to start a cold war against Canada.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109370/

 

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2 hours ago, mugtang said:

Or those models assumed no social distancing and we’re having an effect. 

Even with social distancing the death toll was predicted to be 100,000-200,000. At this point it appears we will be significantly under that. Not quibbling, that is a good thing. This is supposed to be doomsday week per the experts and politicians, so I guess we’ll find out how accurate the forecasts are. 

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The day I take medical advice from this clown is likely the day I die. Hopefully that’s not the case for all of his indoctrinated followers.

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2 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

No way. That would ruin all that nice firewood and drinking water I'm we're going to take.

Good point.  Invade, send the French back to France.  That would solve most of the problems.  The non-French will love our healthcare and we need more contributors to Social Security and Medicare. No need to build a northern wall, gives new meaning to "from sea to shining sea".

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4 minutes ago, Aztecmg said:

 

The day I take medical advice from this clown is likely the day I die. Hopefully that’s not the case for all of his indoctrinated followers.

I don’t care what this MD says. If I’m near death from this virus I’m going to tell them to give me the phucking hydroxychloroquine. 

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14 minutes ago, Aztecmg said:

 

The day I take medical advice from this clown is likely the day I die. Hopefully that’s not the case for all of his indoctrinated followers.

You don’t have to read too much of her Twitter to see what motivates this San Francisco based doctor’s opinion.  There are plenty of doctors with a differing opinion.  Hydroxychloroquine has been used and believed to be effective in several countries (China, South Korea, France come to mind) in the battle against covid19.  It’s irresponsible to just dismiss it like she does because Trump...

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2 hours ago, mugtang said:

Or those models assumed no social distancing and we’re having an effect. 

Another issue is the fact that there is a time lag between the onset of symptoms and the need for hospitalization. 

The $64000 question is what's the expected value of COVID-19+ cases in NYC? If we assume a low-end CFR of 1%, then the current death total of approx. 3,000 may be assumed to represent approx. 1% of the total case count within that population as of 20-27 days ago. So it may be reasonable estimates the number of COVID-19+ cases in NYC as of 3ish weeks ago to be about 300K. 

Case doubling rates in NY were running between once every 2-3 days, though this is in part a function of how many people are being tested and is additionally dependent on the dynamic impact of social distancing on transmissibility rates. Say, for instance, such measures reduce transmissibility rates so the case doubling rate is reduced to once every 7 days. Then it may be assumed there are about 2.4 million infected people in NYC. Say it's effectively reduced the case doubling rate in NYC to just once every 14 days. Then it is reasonable to expect there are somewhere between 750K-1 million COVID-19+ people in NYC, of which somewhere between 50-80% will be symptomatic.

So based on the adjusted case doubling rate, if we assume a 1% CFR then we can expect somewhere between 7500-24000 deaths in NYC.

However, Germany - who has aggressively been testing since Day One and has identified a majority of the COVD-19 cases in the country as evidenced by the slow growth rate of positive cases relative to the increase in per capita testing, 1.5% is a better conservative estimate. Thus, it would be reasonable to expect somewhere between 11,250 and 36,000 deaths.

Keep in mind, this is entirely dependent on 'flattening the curve' to the degree it would reduce the case doubling rate to 7-14 days.

However, if the case doubling rate is only reduced to once every 6 days, it would shift the projection to approx. 48,000-72,000 with a CFR of 1-1.5%. 

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2 hours ago, Bob said:

EUz1loyUwAIk18T?format=png&name=small

Notice Sweden looks like all the other curves

Sweden and Norway make an interesting comparison. But Norway is not on that chart.

Sweden has about 10.1 million people, Norway about 5.2 million. But the median ages of both countries are similar at about 40+/-.

Sweden's first death was on March 11, Norway's first death was on March 12. Only 1 day apart.

The day of its first death, Norway began taking measures shutting down schools, businesses (except food), etc.

Norway has also tested at a per capita rate 6X higher than Sweden.

As of April 5:

  • Sweden - 401 deaths
  • Norway - 71 deaths
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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Another issue is the fact that there is a time lag between the onset of symptoms and the need for hospitalization. 

The $64000 question is what's the expected value of COVID-19+ cases in NYC? If we assume a low-end CFR of 1%, then the current death total of approx. 3,000 may be assumed to represent approx. 1% of the total case count within that population as of 20-27 days ago. So it may be reasonable estimates the number of COVID-19+ cases in NYC as of 3ish weeks ago to be about 300K. 

Case doubling rates in NY were running between once every 2-3 days, though this is in part a function of how many people are being tested and is additionally dependent on the dynamic impact of social distancing on transmissibility rates. Say, for instance, such measures reduce transmissibility rates so the case doubling rate is reduced to once every 7 days. Then it may be assumed there are about 2.4 million infected people in NYC. Say it's effectively reduced the case doubling rate in NYC to just once every 14 days. Then it is reasonable to expect there are somewhere between 750K-1 million COVID-19+ people in NYC, of which somewhere between 50-80% will be symptomatic.

So based on the adjusted case doubling rate, if we assume a 1% CFR then we can expect somewhere between 7500-24000 deaths in NYC.

However, Germany - who has aggressively been testing since Day One and has identified a majority of the COVD-19 cases in the country as evidenced by the slow growth rate of positive cases relative to the increase in per capita testing, 1.5% is a better conservative estimate. Thus, it would be reasonable to expect somewhere between 11,250 and 36,000 deaths.

Keep in mind, this is entirely dependent on 'flattening the curve' to the degree it would reduce the case doubling rate to 7-14 days.

However, if the case doubling rate is only reduced to once every 6 days, it would shift the projection to approx. 48,000-72,000 with a CFR of 1-1.5%. 


So in essence the experts didn’t really know and made a bunch of assumptions based on incomplete data, but gave us all a high number to scare us into distancing compliance. 

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3 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

 

"Canadian Bacon" starring John Candy, Alan Alda, Rip Torn and more brought to life. Synopsis:

 

Oh I’ve seen Canadian Bacon, sir. It’s bad. But it’s badness gets better with every new set of politicians.

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