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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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16 hours ago, retrofade said:

Georgia's governor issued a shelter in place order earlier this week, and now today he just re-opened their beaches.

I'm confused.

As long as the beach isn't crowded, no risk of spread.  Moderate exercise is good physically and mentally.

I brought a granddaughter to see her mom and baby brother in Stockton.  Although I couldn't find anything definite for San Joaquin County, stricter Bay Area counties allow child custody / visitation.  The mom and me agreed the safest thing to do was to keep our distance at 6 feet and meet at a park instead of going into her apartment.  At the nearest park, there were 6 officers on bikes asking people to leave the park.  I understand closing playground equipment, picnic tables and the like, but I fail to see the harm in letting people hang out on benches or the lawn, as long as adequate distance is maintained.  We went for a walk, stopped and sat on a flower bed brick wall and ate lunch.  The group of officers on bikes went by.  One officer said we couldn't sit there, but another just asked us to move when we were done eating.  They were nice and respectful, just doing there job. In our case, it seemed to be a good balance between common sense while still protecting the public.  As for the park, I am sure the directive came down to close the park.

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1 hour ago, retrofade said:

 

The cheating kicker who squared off his foot and shoe?  Lol, I kid about that.  RIP, he was a great one.

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I wonder how many lives will be saved vs deaths due to poor ventilator design and construction.  I have a hard time seeing how all the bugs will be worked out with these new ventilator designs.  It will be sad to see a ventilator pop someone’s lungs because of a lack of FDA oversight and adherence to GMPs.

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22 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

With the world population approaching 8 billion people and putting a strain on the earths resources, maybe Mother Nature is stepping in and doing what humans refuse to do. 

 are you arguing that coronavirus is good because we stupidly stopped holocausting each other?

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I have no idea where this post belongs but the future of free trade is certainly going to be an issue.   Just as many are concerned about the Chinese government preventing medical supplies from coming to the US, Europe has the same concerns but the target of their ire is the US.   
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-52161995

 

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1 hour ago, happycamper said:

 are you arguing that coronavirus is good because we stupidly stopped holocausting each other?

I don't think that's what he meant. I think he meant that every species has a finite quantity and when that maximum nears, nature has a way of adjusting.

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According to this guy, time to restart the economy while taking mitigation steps, or at least start the task force.  He makes some good points.

 

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Does anyone have a link or information on normal daily death rates.  I am curious how much the daily deaths are going up in total, vs the mix of C19 vs other diseases.  I wonder if some of those other disease death counts are steady, up, or down.

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54 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

I have no idea where this post belongs but the future of free trade is certainly going to be an issue.   Just as many are concerned about the Chinese government preventing medical supplies from coming to the US, Europe has the same concerns but the target of their ire is the US.   
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-52161995

 

would you trust trump?  I would not

 

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1 hour ago, modestobulldog said:

According to this guy, time to restart the economy while taking mitigation steps, or at least start the task force.  He makes some good points.

 

He makes some good points, but we are probably 2-3 weeks too early. The positive tests and death count are still rising. On restart extensive testing and tracing are necessary to minimize a second surge.

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1 hour ago, modestobulldog said:

Does anyone have a link or information on normal daily death rates.  I am curious how much the daily deaths are going up in total, vs the mix of C19 vs other diseases.  I wonder if some of those other disease death counts are steady, up, or down.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

 

whoops sorry mis read your request.   You want Covid versus normal.  My bad. 
 

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Now this is interesting. There could be a genetic factor with some people more susceptible. We already know in cats the coronavirus (an older one) turns lethal in cats with certain genes. It results in FIP, feline infectious peritonitis.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html

 

Also interesting because premature infants have a lack of surfactant and there are treatments for that. Maybe that's an Avenue in treatment they should explore 

 

Quote
One possibility is a gene variation in the ACE2 gene. ACE2 is an enzyme that that attaches to the outer surface of cells in the lungs, as well as the heart. In an article in Science magazine, Immunologist Dr. Philip Murphy of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said that "variations in the ACE2 gene that alter the receptor could make it easier or harder for the virus to get into lung cells."

It is also possible that a critical ingredient produced by the body, known as surfactant, which better allows the lungs to expand and contract, becomes depleted in some patients infected with the coronavirus. If you think of your lungs as a sponge, surfactant would be the detergent which would make them soft and pliable. Without surfactant, however, your lung becomes stiff and hard to squeeze. It may be why some patients continue to struggle even on a breathing machine.

 

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UK Prime Miinister Boris Johnson has been taken to the hospital on advice of doctors after having COVID-19 for 10 days.

 

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4 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

UK Prime Miinister Boris Johnson has been taken to the hospital on advice of doctors after having COVID-19 for 10 days.

 

He will be on a vent soon.  Pre-existing condition: obesity.  Anybody that out of shape will have a hard time with the corona.

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

He makes some good points, but we are probably 2-3 weeks too early. The positive tests and death count are still rising. On restart extensive testing and tracing are necessary to minimize a second surge.

Yes, it's definitely too early. Right now, I'd say the country should look at a target date being sometime during the first week of May. (Think exactly a month from today, Cinco de Mayo, and we'll all celebrate getting through the worst of it with a margarita.)

But I otherwise generally agree with the guy that medical authorities are being overly cautious to the detriment of the economy. It seems to me that once drive-up testing is possible for everybody, the strategy should begin to shift from social distancing to herd immunity and if that's done prudently and intelligently, when the second "wave" of the disease hits in the fall, it will be no more consequential than the common flu.

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28 minutes ago, sandiegopete said:

He will be on a vent soon.  Pre-existing condition: obesity.  Anybody that out of shape will have a hard time with the corona.

We don't know that for certain. However, as I understand it, the guy is 5-9 and was about 225 lbs until going on a diet and exercise program a year or so ago which allowed him to drop about 20 lbs. However, the pressures of being prime minister have resulted in him gaining that weight back. Maybe worse, just like Trump he's a junk food junky and his diet is horrible so you have to wonder whether a cholestoral and/or blood pressure problem doesn't have a lot to do with his inability to fight off the disease.

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1 hour ago, sactowndog said:

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

 

whoops sorry mis read your request.   You want Covid versus normal.  My bad. 
 

It is obvious C19 deaths have been going up exponentially, I was curious if other deaths were down significantly. Just guessing some were about to die anyway, and now are classified as C19. :shrug:

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5 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

It is obvious C19 deaths have been going up exponentially, I was curious if other deaths were down significantly. Just guessing some were about to die anyway, and now are classified as C19. :shrug:

Not an unreasonable supposition.  Would be interesting to see the data.

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