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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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35 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

Thanks for sharing.  Just a casual comparison by myself and my county of Stanislaus vs. wealthier counties of Alameda and my workplace of Contra Costa. The wealthier counties had a steeper drop in most categories.  I wonder if wealthier communities have the ability to stock up more, pay higher prices for delivery of groceries, restaurant food, supplies.  White collar jobs are a better fit for working from home.  Stanislaus County is heavy Agricultural production and I suspect is essential.  Also, those two Bay area counters had a 2/3 reduction related to transportation centers, versus less than 1/3 here in Stanislaus County. My hunch is people in the Bay area take transit more out of convenience than necessity.

You don’t think any of it is related to church going members who have Pooh-poohed this thing and in some cases still do?  Or the right wingers who still parrot Trumps original message that it is no worse than the flu?   +++++ read this board for the endless stream of its no big deal still from right wingers here.
 

We sheltered in place and watched church online a couple weeks before Newsom’s order and our pastor made some comment about faithful Christians attending church.  I hear right wing minimization every day including from one family I know who’s child is immune compromised from Luekemia treatments.  

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8 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

I’ll tip my cap to you on that. Although this early thread shows the mood of the posters, and probably the country, were as flippant about it as the government was.

Although for a Cassandra there is a good deal of silence between this post and your first post mentioning coronavirus explicitly on March 3rd, which to be fair was a week ahead of our federal and state governments. I hope you got your money out in time Senator :foottap:

I was sounding the alarm mainly within my circle of family and friends, colleagues, and what few healthcare workers I know.

As far as money is concerned, I didn't go to a cash position until 2-3 weeks ago, by which time I had already taken about a 30% loss just like most people (however, I plan on reestablishing positions in the relative near term).

Thanks for finding that post tho. :cheers:

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13 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

Thanks for sharing. 

Just a casual comparison by myself and my county of Stanislaus vs. wealthier counties of Alameda and my workplace of Contra Costa.

The wealthier counties had a steeper drop in most categories.  I wonder if wealthier communities have the ability to stock up more, pay higher prices for delivery of groceries, restaurant food, supplies.

White collar jobs are a better fit for working from home.  Stanislaus County is heavy Agricultural production and I suspect is essential. 

Those two Bay area counters had a 2/3 reduction related to transportation centers, versus less than 1/3 here in Stanislaus County. My hunch is people in the Bay area take transit more out of convenience than necessity.

Edit: I just checked the county my cabin is located in Wisconsin, that rural county is doing as good or even better than California and the wealthy counties of Contra Costa and Alameda.  Much better information, analysis, and depth in those Google mobility documents then the information that Sactowndog posted.  Making this a red vs. blue issue is bovine fetulence.

Dude for the record I was making it a when the shelter in place order was issued.  And generally shelter in place orders have been more slowly in acted in Southern States.   
 

You are the one trying to ascribe underlying reasons for that behavior with your comprehensive list of underlying causes.

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Perspective:
 

According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, approximately 7,452 people die every day in the United States.
 

As of today there have been 7896 total deaths from the Corona virus

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9 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Perspective:
 

According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, approximately 7,452 people die every day in the United States.
 

As of today there have been 7896 total deaths from the Corona virus

So it is possible, as the virus accelerates, that more people will be dying a day one thing than all the other causes of death combined.  hmm perspective.  It was certainly killing more in Italy and Spain a day than all other causes combined.

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10 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Perspective:
 

According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, approximately 7,452 people die every day in the United States.
 

As of today there have been 7896 total deaths from the Corona virus

More perspective:

3,000 Americans died from 9-11

Why do you feel the need to downplay this?

 

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26 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Perspective:
 

According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, approximately 7,452 people die every day in the United States.
 

As of today there have been 7896 total deaths from the Corona virus

Perspective:

Over 2,500 of those deaths occurred within the last 24 hours. and nearly half of them over the past 48.

By comparison, between 90 and 100 Americans die every day from car accidents.

Perspective:

Over the last week, COVID-19 has killed an average of 3,857 people each day, making it more deadly now than any other disease on the planet:

Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-10-06-33-AM.pn

 

 

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14 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

You don’t think any of it is related to church going members who have Pooh-poohed this thing and in some cases still do?  Or the right wingers who still parrot Trumps original message that it is no worse than the flu?   
 

We sheltered in place and watched church online a couple weeks before Newsom’s order and our pastor made some comment about faithful Christians attending church.  I hear right wing minimization every day including from one family I know who’s child is immune compromised from Luekemia treatments.  

Sactown faithful and liberals are divine; conservatives, Trump supporters, evangelicals, right wingers are depraved and degenerate.  Got it.

Of course it has to do with "some" of it. There will always be outliers, appropriate pressure is being applied to egregious non-compliance.

I grew up in a fundamentalist Baptist home.  Thankfully my parents and family moved on from that.  I have heard my share hell, fire and brimstone sermons from traveling Evangelists. The scape-goating you do on this board is no different than those Evangelists, just from a different angle.

Praise be to your pastor who went online before California's heathen school districts. Please post the name of your church and pastor, much adulation is deserved.  I will rummage through my stuff, I might be able to sanitize and send an old Sunday School ribbon or pin.

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You know what I personally miss the most?

Speeding like a f*cking demon. Driving like a bat out of hell. Nailing apexes and kissing the rev limiter.

With so few cars on the road now, the Johhny Law to outlaw ratio is, like the rent in NYC, too damn high.

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2 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

You know what I personally miss the most?

Speeding like a f*cking demon. Driving like a bat out of hell. Nailing apexes and kissing the rev limiter.

With so few cars on the road now, the Johhny Law to outlaw ratio is, like the rent in NYC, too damn high.

I drove up to San Francisco last week going 90 the entire way. I was going 90 through the middle of LA and a cop passed me in the carpool lane. I don't think writing tickets for speeding is very high on their priority right now.

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58 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

Thanks for sharing. 

Just a casual comparison by myself and my county of Stanislaus vs. wealthier counties of Alameda and my workplace of Contra Costa.

The wealthier counties had a steeper drop in most categories.  I wonder if wealthier communities have the ability to stock up more, pay higher prices for delivery of groceries, restaurant food, supplies.

White collar jobs are a better fit for working from home.  Stanislaus County is heavy Agricultural production and I suspect is essential. 

Those two Bay area counters had a 2/3 reduction related to transportation centers, versus less than 1/3 here in Stanislaus County. My hunch is people in the Bay area take transit more out of convenience than necessity.

Edit: I just checked the county my cabin is located in Wisconsin, that rural county is doing as good or even better than California and the wealthy counties of Contra Costa and Alameda.  Much better information, analysis, and depth in those Google mobility documents then the information that Sactowndog posted.  Making this a red vs. blue issue is bovine fetulence.

Being financially able to stock up for a month along with blue collar vs white collar jobs are some consensus opinions among experts about a few reasons for differences in counties.

For example, jobs in both ag and warehouse/fulfillment are hands-on. Both are also in the essential category these days. Those workers are continuing to travel. I think that is why counties like Stanislaus, San Joaquin and San Bernardino do not see as much workplace location drop-off as Bay Area or other SoCal counties.

Ag is going to be interesting to watch. Will there be a shortage of seasonal workers this year if there are coronavirus-caused delays processing H2-A visas or even just enough seasonal workers willing to come north this year with or without visas? How do you apply social distancing in food packing/processing lines or in the fields especially with the design of some of the harvesting equipment? As a fieldworker in this article said, "“You can’t pick strawberries over Zoom.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-01/california-farmworkers-coronavirus

I spoke with an exec at an Ag company a few days ago. He was taking the virus serious early as he knew several people in large cities who had contracted COVID-19 in the first few weeks. Many of the other execs/managers at his company were downplaying it. Then the exponential growth started and leaders/influencers on the right started talking differently which changed opinions. More and more in the ag industry are starting to pay attention that this will be a serious problem.

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Wow

India

What is going to happen there will be tragic. Those tight packed slums are going to go off like wild fire.

Yes we have our own problems. I just saw an article and am reflecting on what a disaster that country is looking at.

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54 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

Sactown faithful and liberals are divine; conservatives, Trump supporters, evangelicals, right wingers are depraved and degenerate.  Got it.

Of course it has to do with "some" of it. There will always be outliers, appropriate pressure is being applied to egregious non-compliance.

I grew up in a fundamentalist Baptist home.  Thankfully my parents and family moved on from that.  I have heard my share hell, fire and brimstone sermons from traveling Evangelists. The scape-goating you do on this board is no different than those Evangelists, just from a different angle.

Praise be to your pastor who went online before California's heathen school districts. Please post the name of your church and pastor, much adulation is deserved.  I will rummage through my stuff, I might be able to sanitize and send an old Sunday School ribbon or pin.

Give it a rest.  
 

I go to an evangelical church and many of my friends are Trumpers.   Me saying some right wingers are taking this too lightly when comparing to the flu is hardly calling all Trumpers depraved and degenerate.  
 

I think Trump has been a horrible President but I have also given him his due for cutting Corporate taxes, shutting the border with China, and, if you read Mug’s thread, holding Ventilators in reserve.   But pointing out Trump’s many failures is hardly scape goating.   
 

As for the map, I pointed out movement seemed to be correlated with lack of shelter in place orders which had nothing to do with red or blue states.  You turned a statement about effectiveness of stay at home orders into a political discussion all on your own.  

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2 minutes ago, mysfit said:

Wow

India

What is going to happen there will be tragic. Those tight packed slums are going to go off like wild fire.

Yes we have our own problems. I just saw an article and am reflecting on what a disaster that country is looking at.

Sounds like a self-cleaning oven to me. 

The downside is, servants will be more expensive. 

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30 minutes ago, Los_Aztecas said:

I drove up to San Francisco last week going 90 the entire way. I was going 90 through the middle of LA and a cop passed me in the carpool lane. I don't think writing tickets for speeding is very high on their priority right now.

I had the same experience though I was only going 84.   Lol

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Taiwan donating 2 million masks to the United States 

 

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2 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Taiwan donating 2 million masks to the United States 

 

Taiwan = good player on world stage 

China = bad player on world stage

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1 minute ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Taiwan = good player on world stage 

China = bad player on world stage

Pretty much

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

Perspective:
According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, approximately 7,452 people die every day in the United States.
As of today there have been 7896 total deaths from the Corona virus

The average hospital stay from Pneumonia with or without complications or comorbidities is 3 to 5 days. It is an average of 7 days for pneumonia involving an ICU stay.

Current data indicates the average hospital stay from COVID-19 averages 10 to 12 days.(early New York data is the most critical cases are on a ventilator for 20 to 30 days plus the additional hospital days off the machine).

Medical insurance companies are going to be making big payouts this year for hospitalizations that recover, not just those who die. Keep an eye on insurance premiums, they will increase next year.

We need to keep hospitalizations down by limiting the spread.

 

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18 minutes ago, mysfit said:

Wow

India

What is going to happen there will be tragic. Those tight packed slums are going to go off like wild fire.

Yes we have our own problems. I just saw an article and am reflecting on what a disaster that country is looking at.

Yep. They're about 3-4 weeks behind us on the epi curve.

And with .9 hospital beds per thousand, the magnitude of the disaster there will likely be horrific.

While they did a commendable job in aggressively contact tracing to secondary and tertiary degrees and isolating and quarantining suspect populations, in typically Indian style they compensated by screwing it up in the negligible amount of testing they've performed to date. While scaling up, just two weeks ago they had tested all of 6.1 people per million.

And with the off-the-charts population density, they simply had less room for error.

We think our two-ends-of-a-shit-sandwich taste bad - India's getting the while footlong. :ph34r:

Just as our supply chains became disrupted at the local level, so are (and will be) India's. And due to the heavy reliance on laborers that come in from the insular villages - who have been returning to said villages en masse since the lockdown - these will become exacerbated. And amongst those throngs of laborers returning to their village are no shortage of transmission vectors to villages of 1K-100K that completely lack the healthcare infrastructure found in the cities.

And it's not just India. SE Asia is going to get throttled, as will Central and S America in the weeks and months to come. 

 

tl;dr - I'd humbly suggest avoid investing in emerging markets for the time being.

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