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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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3 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Again, I am placing blame on Trump.  Where am I defending him?  What the god damn World Health Organization says carries weight.  It carries weight with governors and policy makers.  It carried weight in Europe.  When the world looks to one organization for truth in such matters, it matters.  Our intelligence agencies alerted to the possibility of a pandemic, and Trump should be held accountable for not taking a worst case scenario approach as would have been prudent.  However nobody in the West did.  We are judging Trump with the benefit of hindsight, which is both fair and not fair.  We are STILL not sold on the measure being taken.  Still.  With all the data, the destruction.  

I know I would have been pissed had Trump taken measures to trace contacts that violate my goddamn rights at the time.  As would many democrats because it was Trump doing it.  Trump would have needed to build a case for why such unconstitutional measures were needed.  Building that case is far above his capacity.  

Blaming him for the CDC following their SoP's, is dumb.  Blaming him for a lack of ability to manufacture and produce medical equipment, is dumb.  Thinking he could have convinced this nation to adopt policies that MAYBE, MAYBE would have prevented social distancing measure another month, is dumb.

A perfect leader, with the benefit of hindsight, could have steered us into a better direction.  The math supports that.  I fail to see where this perfect leader would have come from.  Europe failed.  We failed.  Trump failed.  The WHO failed.  My governor failed.  

 

I agree with everything you said except for the bolded part. There was a playbook but it was not followed. The NSC working group responsible for scripting policy and ensuring our federal agencies are acting in a manner congruent with policy goals was disbanded - by Trump - in 2018.

And with 1-2 exceptions, every. single. cabinet member who met with their outgoing counterparts from the last administration on January 13, 2017 to discuss this exact scenario is a victim of the abnormally high rate of attrition in this WH.

Yes, there is plenty of blame to spread around. But as it pertains to our well being, as a nation, the buck stops with this administration, with this president. 

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1 hour ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

There is a second group.  People like me.  People who fully understand what we are giving up with so little resistance.  It terrifies me.  But for now, I will go along with it.  I do not know how we as a society could look at ourselves should the worst case come to pass.  If we had let a few million die, we would be giving up our rights at an even faster pace under the promises of "never again".

As I've been maintaining, it's like two ends of a shit sandwich, where one end gives you a really bad case of e coli.

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I’ve learned jail isn’t so bad (if you have a TV and IPad). The biggest issue is not knowing the length of sentence. 

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27 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I agree with everything you said except for the bolded part. There was a playbook but it was not followed. The NSC working group responsible for scripting policy and ensuring our federal agencies are acting in a manner congruent with policy goals was disbanded - by Trump - in 2018.

And with 1-2 exceptions, every. single. cabinet member who met with their outgoing counterparts from the last administration on January 13, 2017 to discuss this exact scenario is a victim of the abnormally high rate of attrition in this WH.

Yes, there is plenty of blame to spread around. But as it pertains to our well being, as a nation, the buck stops with this administration, with this president. 

You highlighted in bold a paragraph with 3 points.  Was it this part you found issue with "Thinking he could have convinced this nation to adopt policies that MAYBE, MAYBE would have prevented social distancing measure another month, is dumb."?

I am unable to, given the context your provided, ascertain which of the three points in that paragraph you take objection to, or if you take objection to all three.  I am sure that is more me being tired as hell and less you being clear in your context.  

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26 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

As I've been maintaining, it's like two ends of a shit sandwich, where one end gives you a really bad case of e coli.

I am scared at the rate in which we are embracing our liberties being removed.  But I also have an understanding, should we not embrace it now, we would be looking at a scenario in which we are begging the government to remove said liberties in 5 months.  This is complete shit.  All of it.  In a perfect world everybody would be on the same page, we would voluntarily and with high hearts impose these measure on ourselves instead of not having them mandated.  Sadly, we needed them mandated because we are not so selfless.  It is +++++ed.  It is all +++++ed.

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3 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Well, sooner than 3 days ago.  About 3 weeks ago.  Which was far too late.

I have read almost every post on this board in the past month.  There are several claiming the US, with our demographics and mobility, would have been able to prevent social distancing measure from being necessary.  That is a clown take that stems only from extreme partisanship and not reality or any understanding of this virus. Nobody believes you.  Fauci thinks that is full of shit.  The math thinks that is FoS.  Every reputable virologist thinks that is FoS.

It was not Trump having witnessed shit go down.  We had China at the time, and under 20 deaths in in Itally.  Under 20 deaths in Italy at the time constitutionally violating our rights would have had to have been the recommended course of action to prevent attempt to prevent spread.  An attempt that would have failed.

3 weeks ago? lol.  Trump was still saying no big deal, see everybody at Easter and wutabout the flu 4 days ago.

Again for the 400th time, not my argument and not the general.    

Go ahead, keep on making up your own definition of what could be done, and then saying we can't do that to so you can absolve Trump and all our leadership.

 

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9 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

You highlighted in bold a paragraph with 3 points.  Was it this part you found issue with "Thinking he could have convinced this nation to adopt policies that MAYBE, MAYBE would have prevented social distancing measure another month, is dumb."?

I am unable to, given the context your provided, ascertain which of the three points in that paragraph you take objection to, or if you take objection to all three.  I am sure that is more me being tired as hell and less you being clear in your context.  

Didn't parse it to that level of detail tbh. :shrug: And to be frank, I really don't get the context of the sentence you quoted. No offense, but it's kind of obtuse. 

But if I understand it correctly, then yes, the federal government could have enacted policies that would have effectively slowed the early stage transmission and therefore slowed the timeline for enacting stay-at-home orders.

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1 minute ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I am scared at the rate in which we are embracing our liberties being removed.  But I also have an understanding, should we not embrace it now, we would be looking at a scenario in which we are begging the government to remove said liberties in 5 months.  This is complete shit.  All of it.  In a perfect world everybody would be on the same page, we would voluntarily and with high hearts impose these measure on ourselves instead of not having them mandated.  Sadly, we needed them mandated because we are not so selfless.  It is +++++ed.  It is all +++++ed.

You and I both brother. I have no doubt there are nefarious actors who would love nothing more than to capitalize on our disjoint nature. Shit, we have an entire carrier offline at the moment. One battle at a time. 

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5 minutes ago, toonkee said:

3 weeks ago? lol.  Trump was still saying no big deal, see everybody at Easter and wutabout the flu 4 days ago.

Again for the 400th time, not my argument and not the general.    

Go ahead, keep on making up your own definition of what could be done, and then saying we can't do that to so you can absolve Trump and all our leadership.

 

No, Trump started taking this seriously about 3 weeks ago.  He mentioned getting us up and running again by Easter, which was, for the record, +++++ing stupid but that does not, that single statement, make lie to the actions, severe actions, being recommended, embraced and instituted at the highest level.  Look at what we are doing.  We are treating this very seriously, now and far to late.  But we are now.  And we have been for weeks.   

Your vehemence with me is misplaced.  Read my posts. I am not trying to absolve Trump.  I am trying to put it in perspective.  Trump need be held accountable.  I have said that what now, 7 times in the past 8 pages?  You just do not like the rest of what I have to say.  You like an easy target and I present things that make it less easy for you to direct blame, which removes you from the comfort of having one single direction to rage at.  That is why you are angry at me in disproportion to the context of my posts.   

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On 4/1/2020 at 7:36 AM, mugtang said:

Sorry didn’t mean to out you like that.  
 

But yeah that would be bad considering where you work is exceptionally vital.  Hopefully you guys are taking every precaution possible. 

Nailed it... Now I can watch the construction from my office window. Along with all the damn helicopters coming in. 

https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2020/04/03/renown-health-converting-parking-garage-into-hospital-rooms/2941718001/

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15 minutes ago, toonkee said:

3 weeks ago? lol.  Trump was still saying no big deal, see everybody at Easter and wutabout the flu 4 days ago.

Again for the 400th time, not my argument and not the general.    

Go ahead, keep on making up your own definition of what could be done, and then saying we can't do that to so you can absolve Trump and all our leadership.

 

Also, kindly read what I am actually writing.  Absolve all our leadership?  Nay.  Not so.  I am the only one wanting to put blame equally on our leadership where blame should be laid.  I am just not as stupid as some, and realize what our best and brightest are telling us.  And have continued  to tell us. Which is ignored by those with an actual blinding bias.  

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26 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

You and I both brother. I have no doubt there are nefarious actors who would love nothing more than to capitalize on our disjoint nature. Shit, we have an entire carrier offline at the moment. One battle at a time. 

I got into a verbal argument over the phone with my father last night whether gun stores should be considered essential business. He thinks they aren't essential, I argued they are.   

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53 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

I got into a verbal argument over the phone with my father last night whether gun stores should be considered essential business. He thinks they aren't essential, I argued they are.   

Lots of afraid and very panicked people. Who knows what people will do if they get desperate enough. 

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5 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Lots of afraid and very panicked people. Who knows what people will do if they get desperate enough. 

Our local law enforcement has made a public statement (phucking idiotic in my opinion) they will not respond to certain crimes such as shoplifting, theft, theft from vehicle, vandalism, and vandalism of vehicle. In the last week our community has seen a spike in auto thefts, break ins, and shoplifting. It's getting to the point where I don't feel comfortable leaving my home unattended for longer than 15 minutes. LA county ordered all gun stores to be closed, but our county has remained open. Our sheriff is pro 2A so I hope he keeps it that way.  

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12 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Speak for yourself, Hoss. I might as well have legally hanged my name to Cassandra by late January. :ph34r:

I’ll tip my cap to you on that. Although this early thread shows the mood of the posters, and probably the country, were as flippant about it as the government was.

Although for a Cassandra there is a good deal of silence between this post and your first post mentioning coronavirus explicitly on March 3rd, which to be fair was a week ahead of our federal and state governments. I hope you got your money out in time Senator :foottap:

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So the question we all want to have answered ... after "surviving" COVID-19, are we then immune to catching it again with a second wave? As of today there are no concrete answers as researchers are tackling this question around the globe. Here's an article from TIME giving some hope that survivors may develop antibodies that could last for a couple of years but that estimate is based on what happened with SARS:

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

If this shit has the ability to quickly reinfect people with a stronger second wave, we're in big trouble on both the health and economic fronts. Hopefully Big Pharma will turn their collective focus from things like erectile dysfunction and plaque psoriasis to life preserving treatments and vaccines for COVID-19. 

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18 hours ago, toonkee said:

I see a wide disconnect of between those that want to excuse trump and those that want to charge him with some sort of negligence.

Everyone is talking past each other. We're not arguing the same thing.

I think I speak for a lot of the "Trump was somewhat negligent crowd" when I say in no way do we think he, or anyone, could have stopped the virus from doing it's thing and that is all that matters.  Nobody believes that.

We're saying he could have got the machine started up a lot earlier and in fact actually played a part in preventing it from getting going earlier. So, if you disagree with that, argue it, but please stop inferring we think he had the power to stop the virus.  Nobody thinks that.

 

  

God I’m hoping we don’t have this argument for the length of the CoronaVirus.   
 

it’s basically this: 

Never Trumpers:  Trump failed to respond or plan for far too long

Trumpers:  Nobody could stop this virus and if Trump says its perfect I believe every he says....

repeat ad infinitum

   

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15 hours ago, sean327 said:

The usual suspects here don’t care. Constitution? Can’t let that get in the way because itS FuR mUh SaFty and tHe gReAtEr GoOd....

You do know Fresno is a very conservative town and the Trump administration has been pushing for this policy point so they don’t have to release illegals.   
 

so not sure who the usual suspects are but this violation of rights comes from the right wing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/judicial/489599-covid-19-bill-barr-and-the-american-authoritarian-tradition%3Famp

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18 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

Google posted today what I think is much better mobility data showing the change in movement behavior in different counties, states, and countries.

Instead of simply identifying a change in total movement, Google looks at the percentage change over the last few weeks in location data from several location categories:

  • retail and recreation,
  • groceries and pharmacies,
  • parks,
  • transit stations,
  • workplaces,
  • and residential.

I think that is a better way to identify behavior change instead of just travel distance. It accounts for the longer distances some areas may have to reach essentials.

The data is at this link. Select the US (or another country) then select an individual state for the US. County level data is part of each state's pdf.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

For example, here is California. It shows a 50% reduction in location data at restaurants/retail/entertainment/etc statewide; a 24% reduction from locations like groceries/farmers markets/etc; and reductions from other locations except for residences which has an increase. Then there are 30 pages of individual county graphs.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_US_California_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Thanks for sharing. 

Just a casual comparison by myself and my county of Stanislaus vs. wealthier counties of Alameda and my workplace of Contra Costa.

The wealthier counties had a steeper drop in most categories.  I wonder if wealthier communities have the ability to stock up more, pay higher prices for delivery of groceries, restaurant food, supplies.

White collar jobs are a better fit for working from home.  Stanislaus County is heavy Agricultural production and I suspect is essential. 

Those two Bay area counters had a 2/3 reduction related to transportation centers, versus less than 1/3 here in Stanislaus County. My hunch is people in the Bay area take transit more out of convenience than necessity.

Edit: I just checked the county my cabin is located in Wisconsin, that rural county is doing as good or even better than California and the wealthy counties of Contra Costa and Alameda.  Much better information, analysis, and depth in those Google mobility documents then the information that Sactowndog posted.  Making this a red vs. blue issue is bovine fetulence.

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