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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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10 minutes ago, retrofade said:

If current trends continue, it looks like we're going to break 100k cases here in the US by the end of the day.

The total # of cases is a sign of the numbers of tests that have been reported more than anything else.  Obviously a lot more than 100k have contracted it.  And a hell of a lot more than 11k in UK have if the prime minister and prince Charles have it.

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1 hour ago, sactowndog said:

Japan has vigorously done test and trace has have other Asian countries like Taiwan.  I could post the data but my guess is your mind is made up regardless so why bother? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html

Oh, and I'm the one who is close minded here. Lol

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nm

 

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1 hour ago, Del Scorcho said:

such a beautiful country with great people, I know this low on the list of priorities right now but I fear with the stigma attached to the virus, its going to take a long time for tourism to bounce back.  I've only been to a few Italian cities, but I've always wanted to go to Milan, Florence and Venice

Yeah, there are many places I still need to get to there myself. My hope is that the stigma of Covid-19 is so broad-based that no one country unduly suffers for it.  I mean, in the end the U.S. will have the biggest numbers, yet I don’t think that will scare all that many from eventually visiting  here...

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1 minute ago, mugtang said:

 

Don't worry, those cases will all disappear once the weather gets hot enough.

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1 minute ago, retrofade said:

Don't worry, those cases will all disappear once the weather gets hot enough.

Thanks global warming!

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50 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

The total # of cases is a sign of the numbers of tests that have been reported more than anything else.  Obviously a lot more than 100k have contracted it.  And a hell of a lot more than 11k in UK have if the prime minister and prince Charles have it.

This is a good point... what does the # of cases on a chart look like compared to # of tests administered? And is there any situation out there right now where it's even possible for stats people to make an educated guess at how many people actually have the virus using # of people showing sumptoms?

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I think this is the right thread for the home schooling jokes

Screenshot_20200327-121035_Samsung Internet.jpg

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6 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

This is a good point... what does the # of cases on a chart look like compared to # of tests administered? And is there any situation out there right now where it's even possible for stats people to make an educated guess at how many people actually have the virus using # of people showing sumptoms?

This is from a different/older dataset, but it should give a decent overview.

MBjHhli.png

That puts us at about 15% of people who have tests administered end up testing positive. We also know that people who are tested are ones who exhibit all symptoms and/or have come in contact with someone who has tested positive. Something else to note is that at the beginning of the week, that tested positive rate was between 12-13%, so it has inched up since then... likely due to test criteria being tightened. 

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Must watch for the nay sayers. Before it’s all said and done over a million will get it.

 

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1 hour ago, retrofade said:

OMG...

 

:lol:

 

I’m sure Massey is an a-hole, but I don’t think politicians should go around calling each other names publicly.  Trump is obviously the biggest offender of this.

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4 weeks ago: 60 cases, 0 deaths
3 weeks ago: 227 cases, 12 deaths
2 weeks ago: 1,636 cases, 41 deaths
1 week ago: 13,229 cases, 195 deaths
Right now: 82,135 cases, 1,195 deaths

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11 minutes ago, Warbow said:

Must watch for the nay sayers. Before it’s all said and done over a million will get it.

 

Here is another video of an actual COVID-19 patient's lungs from George Washington University in DC. This one is a 3D video from a CT scan. The yellow in the video is the infected/inflamed area of the lungs.

The patient is a 59 year old male coronavirus patient with only high blood pressure as a known preexisting condition.

Currently he is on both a ventilator at the highest setting plus a machine to oxygenate his blood.

 

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We must do better for our health care workers than we are. They have to have proper PPE. We've already lost 1 nurse in NY.

 

Quote

51 Italian doctors who contracted coronavirus have died since the start of the pandemic

From Sharon Braithwaite in London

Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis in Italy, 51 doctors who tested positive for the disease have died, the Italian Association of Doctors said Friday.

The news of the death toll comes after an urgent call for medical protective equipment from the president of the association, Filippo Anelli, on Thursday.

By the numbers: Since the beginning of the epidemic, 6,414 health workers have been infected by coronavirus as of Thursday, according to the Italian National Institute of Health.

Out of the 51 deceased doctors, 32 were working in Lombardy, the Italian region worst-hit by coronavirus.

 

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18 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Here is another video of an actual COVID-19 patient's lungs from George Washington University in DC. This one is a 3D video from a CT scan. The yellow in the video is the infected/inflamed area of the lungs.

The patient is a 59 year old male coronavirus patient with only high blood pressure as a known preexisting condition.

Currently he is on both a ventilator at the highest setting plus a machine to oxygenate his blood.

 

I'm also concerned about the reports that the coronavirus causes heart damage 

 

I don't know that you need both a vent and ECMO

Unless there is something therapeutic for the lungs?

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Just now, mysfit said:

I'm also concerned about the reports that the coronavirus causes heart damage 

The lack of oxygen has an effect on all major organs. 

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cytokine storm?  ugly

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1 hour ago, mysfit said:

We must do better for our health care workers than we are. They have to have proper PPE. We've already lost 1 nurse in NY.

 

 

When you think about how many doctors (likely) die from the flu contracted via their (hundreds of) patients each year, that is just an obscene number of doctor deaths, and in a very short period of time. This number (51) will only get worse. So tragic for the very people who are simply doing their best to try and save lives and under terrible conditions/circumstances...

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21 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Seems there are two main world views when it comes to this.

- save as many lives as possible while doing their best not to tank the economy too much

- keep the economy as stable as possible while doing their best to ensure a catastrophic number of people don’t die 

The former stress that if the medical system is overwhelmed, the economy will tank anyway. The latter says if the economic downturn is too severe, people will die anyway. Kind of a catch-22, I can see why not many appear to be changing their minds. 

Yeah, it is a bit of a Catch-22 and I'll put it this way:

Joe Average physician thinks we should quarantine virtually everybody until the proverbial curve is flattened to zero.

Joe Average big business owner thinks nobody who is productive and asymptomatic should be quarantined after Easter Sunday.

Because none of us are physicians or big business owners, the position of most of us here appears to be somewhere in between.

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