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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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7 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Just when you do it, try to do the following:

1. Avoid peak hours. The probability of exposure is dependent on the number of encounters you have, which itself is a function of the sheer number of people around you

2. Respect social distancing. Keep 6' between yourself and someone else, and don't be embarrassed to request the same of others.

3. Every 4-6 days, the probability of exposure doubles. While supply chains will largely sort themselves out over the next few weeks, this will intersect the day-to-day increase in infection rate and rising number of fatalities, and the genpop is going to react accordingly. I would humbly suggest doing a lion's share of your shopping over the next 2-3 weeks and plan on riding out the peak of the wave in (relative) isolation. 

4. Get a mask. I was speaking with an infectious disease specialist today who told me some of their lab (which is working on a vaccine) findings. I do not want to repeat possibly bad information until I see it published, but it led me to believe that even surgical masks can offer at east some protection from airborne infection. The mask protects both you and others; remember - you could be one of the 18% or so who are asymptomatic but could still be shedding the virus.

 

The governor said their AI/supercomputer modeling is predicting 56% infection rate statewide. I think he "misspoke" when he gave the numbers he did for the projected overcapacity in hospitals. If just 14% require hospitalization (as per expected values), that would overwhelm capacity statewide by over 3 million patients. And if just 3% of symptomatic patients require intensive care, there would be hundreds of thousands - not 19K - of Californians in need of intensive care without any room to accomodate them.

 

Scary numbers.  I assume that is with no intervention?

 

Kind of where I am .  I only go out for groceries and then very early or late when few are around.  I have a few masks but feel weird wearing them.  at once a day I can go a few months.

Weird times

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1 minute ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Just when you do it, try to do the following:

1. Avoid peak hours. The probability of exposure is dependent on the number of encounters you have, which itself is a function of the sheer number of people around you

2. Respect social distancing. Keep 6' between yourself and someone else, and don't be embarrassed to request the same of others.

3. Every 4-6 days, the probability of exposure doubles. While supply chains will largely sort themselves out over the next few weeks, this will intersect the day-to-day increase in infection rate and rising number of fatalities, and the genpop is going to react accordingly. I would humbly suggest doing a lion's share of your shopping over the next 2-3 weeks and plan on riding out the peak of the wave in (relative) isolation. 

4. Get a mask. I was speaking with an infectious disease specialist today who told me some of their lab (which is working on a vaccine) findings. I do not want to repeat possibly bad information until I see it published, but it led me to believe that even surgical masks can offer at east some protection from airborne infection. The mask protects both you and others; remember - you could be one of the 18% or so who are asymptomatic but could still be shedding the virus.

 

The governor said their AI/supercomputer modeling is predicting 56% infection rate statewide. I think he "misspoke" when he gave the numbers he did for the projected overcapacity in hospitals. If just 14% require hospitalization (as per expected values), that would overwhelm capacity statewide by over 3 million patients. And if just 3% of symptomatic patients require intensive care, there would be hundreds of thousands - not 19K - of Californians in need of intensive care without any room to accomodate them.

I’ve been meaning to thank you for all your input through all of this. Your information has helped me explain things to people in terms they can understand, which is what I do for a living when I actually know what I’m taking about. 
 

Remind me to buy you a beer next time I’m in that neck of the woods. 

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1 minute ago, phxpoke said:

Drink a few beers. There are no more rules.😎

It physically hurt to drink carbonated beverages.  I had bariatric surgery a couple of years ago and my stomach is tiny. 

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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1 hour ago, mugtang said:

I don’t know how long people are going to tolerate being told to shelter in place.  I think the maximum you’re going to get out of people is a month before they just say phuck it I don’t care if I get sick.  I’m kinda surprised there aren’t riots breaking out already.   

I give it 2-3 weeks at most. 

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1 hour ago, CPslograd said:

The last sentence is an interesting question.  In France, Spain, and Italy that apparently is not the case.  Or more accurately, is not an approved activity.

The hard thing for me is my youngest, who I think has a less than great immune system, and puts her hands in her mouth constantly.  Really going to be hard not taking her to the park for a month.  And if I do, she will go right to the playground, and I can't really sanitize that.

I'll try the river, lake, and mountains, but it's not like she is going to go for hikes.  Short walks and a quiet place to play are what I need.

Might I suggest a canoe?  No better time.

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23 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Just when you do it, try to do the following:

1. Avoid peak hours. The probability of exposure is dependent on the number of encounters you have, which itself is a function of the sheer number of people around you

2. Respect social distancing. Keep 6' between yourself and someone else, and don't be embarrassed to request the same of others.

3. Every 4-6 days, the probability of exposure doubles. While supply chains will largely sort themselves out over the next few weeks, this will intersect the day-to-day increase in infection rate and rising number of fatalities, and the genpop is going to react accordingly. I would humbly suggest doing a lion's share of your shopping over the next 2-3 weeks and plan on riding out the peak of the wave in (relative) isolation. 

4. Get a mask. I was speaking with an infectious disease specialist today who told me some of their lab (which is working on a vaccine) findings. I do not want to repeat possibly bad information until I see it published, but it led me to believe that even surgical masks can offer at east some protection from airborne infection. The mask protects both you and others; remember - you could be one of the 18% or so who are asymptomatic but could still be shedding the virus.

 

The governor said their AI/supercomputer modeling is predicting 56% infection rate statewide. I think he "misspoke" when he gave the numbers he did for the projected overcapacity in hospitals. If just 14% require hospitalization (as per expected values), that would overwhelm capacity statewide by over 3 million patients. And if just 3% of symptomatic patients require intensive care, there would be hundreds of thousands - not 19K - of Californians in need of intensive care without any room to accomodate them.

Your first two comments made me laugh. Our home supplies finally dwindled way down. So my wife tells me I’m the sacrificial lamb and need to go to the grocery store. Fallacy of course because she gets the virus if I get it.

Anyway she informs me the local Albertsons has dedicated early morning shopping for old folks from 7:00am to 9:00am. So, I get up around 6:30 and arrive at the store about 7:10 am. I pull up in the parking lot which is almost full. I go into the store and the aisles are packed with old people like me only much slower. Distancing is next to impossible. You ever shop with a bunch of old people? Geezus they are slow. They’ll stop in front of the item you want and stare at it for several minutes at the same time blocking the aisle with their cart. 

Anyway, I grab what I can and as quickly as I can and get the hell out of there. Luckily the number exposed in Boise is still very low, but could turn into Russian roulette by the next time I shop. 

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28 minutes ago, Billings said:

Scary numbers.  I assume that is with no intervention?

Kind of where I am .  I only go out for groceries and then very early or late when few are around.  I have a few masks but feel weird wearing them.  at once a day I can go a few months.

Weird times

Correct. I heard today that if we can just trim the doubling time to 8 days it makes a remarkable difference downstream on the resultant burden to our healthcare infrastructure. 

My wife and I spent $700 at Costco this morning. Arrived at 0700. We won't have to reprovision until July. Also got Charmin like a f*cking boss.

And yes, these are very weird times. The entire paradigm has shifted very suddenly. Just remember...

restau-pe-when-the-going-gets-weird-the-

And after standing in line to get rationed toilet paper, I think my wife and I have now become professional hunter-gatherers. :ph34r:

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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33 minutes ago, Mad_Hatter said:

I’ve been meaning to thank you for all your input through all of this. Your information has helped me explain things to people in terms they can understand, which is what I do for a living when I actually know what I’m taking about. 
 

Remind me to buy you a beer next time I’m in that neck of the woods. 

Happily. We're all in this together. :cheers:

  • Cheers 1

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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2 hours ago, mugtang said:

I do.  200,000 casino employees just lost their jobs and who knows how many retail, restaurant, etc other employees.  So let’s call it 350,000 people in Nevada that just lost their jobs over this virus.  Since we’re a low population state it’s fair to assume most other states have higher job losses.  So if 350,000 is a lower end number, take that and multiply it by 50 and there are now or soon to be 17,500,000 people unemployed and that’s just to start.  Let’s this drag out for 3 or 4 months and you’re looking at 40-50 million unemployed people which is an unemployment rate of 25-32%.  People will revolt if that happens and millions will die. 

Everything will be fine. Donald Trump is in charge. 

:shots:

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1 hour ago, Billings said:

 

I am lucky.  as a Teacher I am getting paid and teaching my students online.  had almost 75% log in today for their first set of assignments.  I buy from local business, bread shops, pet stores, etc.  Big stores are giving employees pay for a couple of weeks but the little guys getting hammered.

We have more small farms than any county in the country, and a couple of them have stepped up to fill supply chain disruptions and package produce that is being delivered all over the county now.

We'll find a way to get through this f*ckery.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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2 hours ago, CPslograd said:

That's the argument, and I'm willing to give then the benefit of the doubt, for a short while, and to a point.  But we are reaching that point pretty quickly in California

Idk man. I think I can waste a considerable amount of time mtn biking and hiking on local trails, maybe do a little fishing, and taking care of the f*ckton of things I need to do in and around the house.

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St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

The governor said their AI/supercomputer modeling is predicting 56% infection rate statewide. I think he "misspoke" when he gave the numbers he did for the projected overcapacity in hospitals. If just 14% require hospitalization (as per expected values), that would overwhelm capacity statewide by over 3 million patients. And if just 3% of symptomatic patients require intensive care, there would be hundreds of thousands - not 19K - of Californians in need of intensive care without any room to accomodate them.

Newsom's spokesperson clarified later the 56% rate is a model based on taking no measures.

https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1240771523545190400

 

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27 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Correct. I heard today that if we can just trim the doubling time to 8 days it makes a remarkable difference downstream on the resultant burden to our healthcare infrastructure. 

My wife and I spent $700 at Costco this morning. Arrived at 0700. We won't have to reprovision until July. Also got Charmin like a f*cking boss.

And yes, these are very weird times. The entire paradigm has shifted very suddenly. Just remember...

restau-pe-when-the-going-gets-weird-the-

And after standing in line to get rationed toilet paper, I think my wife and I have now become professional hunter-gatherers. :ph34r:

My 10 year old entrepreneur gave us a good laugh the other day. Given my roots we’re typically always stocked with a modest supply of essentials, rotating supplies from house, to camping, to emergency. Anyway, she sees the line for TP at Costco and figures she can acquire a pack before it’s gone. We tell her we’re definitely good, but she pulls some crumpled cash from her pocket and says she would like to buy one. She waits in line politely and patiently, allowing a few line-cutters because she’s done the math. 
 

She gets her pack, pays out-of-pocket, and carries it out on her own. At that point I knew some kind of hustle was soon to follow. Turns out she wants to “go to market” with her homemade slime creations during spring break and figured she’d give away a free roll of TP with every slime purchase at her slime stand. (25 cents each). And if they don’t sell she’ll “donate the rest“. 
 

Proud moment if I do say so myself. 

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1 hour ago, renoskier said:

You think that will happen if the virus continues to spread exponentially?

 

I think it happens either way if the lockdowns continue for too long. If the virus keeps spreading, then there will be a sense of fatalism in that even these measures didn't stop the virus. And if a month from now everyone is locked in their homes and 300 people have died in CA from it, you'll see people pissed that all this was being done for what seems like a pretty small threat.

Either way, there is hard cap on the amount of time that people will voluntarily imprison themselves in their own homes or their own neighborhoods. Beyond that hard cap, the state needs to enforce the rules utilizing force against the citizens. Only authoritarian states can sustain this sort of thing after that hard cap.

That's why someone besides a doctor should be offering some input into these decisions, as well.

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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6 hours ago, Mad_Hatter said:

So now that all of the hotels in Nevada and elsewhere, are or will be empty, what’s the level of difficulty involved if they have to be converted to makeshift medical facilities?

 

Restocking the mini bar.

110926run_defense710.jpg
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