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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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2 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Tell me about it. :ph34r:

Since you're in the business, what are your thoughts on this mathematical model for SARs vs current predictions on Covid? Obviously conditions are different now than 2003, good and bad. I've been amazed by the rapidity of biomedical responses through CRISPR, PCR and AI supercomputing. Not apples and apples but just curious about the accuracy of early modeling.

https://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/831

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1 hour ago, Bob said:

Really great article here

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

+100

Succinct and to the point. We don't have very much information but from what we do know, the vast majority of deaths have been with people who because of age, chronic illness, decades of heavy smoking and the like have compromised cardiovascular or immune systems. Although shutting things down to maximize social distancing so as to reduce spread of the disease is essential at this point in time, we are beginning to get into the realm of overreaction.

As an example, yesterday California governor Gavin Newsom announced that K-12 schools will likely not reopen until the fall. How ridiculous is that? This is not a disease of the young and although "distance learning" is becoming prevalent, school isn't just academics. Among other things, school also provides for at least one good meal per day for kids who often otherwise don't get one, at least some exercise for many kids who similarly don't get any, and social interaction not possible electronically. And how about all those employed by schools? At a minimum, if schools won't be open there will be no reason for custodians to continue to work.

Let too many government officials like Newsom make policy decisions on this stuff and we risk crashing the economy. And how many people would THAT kill?

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Boom goes the dynamite.

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44 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I blame mother nature for inflicting this virus on us. But she doesn’t listen and we mortal humans can’t control her. She can be a real bitch at times. 

All true, but our government is rolling out tools supposedly reserved for actual existential threats.  Covid-19 is not an existential threat.  We are going to pay a huge, huge price for these gross over reactions by politicians in an election year.  I get people are scared and want to feel like the government is protecting them, but we are throwing the baby out with the bathwater.  All of these measures should be targeted.  This virus has a predilection (unlike H1N1) and we know exactly who it is.  Old people and people with co-morbidity health issues.  Those people should take extreme caution.  Not the whole damn country.

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20 hours ago, renoskier said:

Huh? That's exactly what we do.

US dollars, and all the major currencies of the world, are Fiat currencies. They aren't "backed" by anything other than faith in the government they are issued by.

I dislike it when people have faith in our govt backing our debt.....shit, its the productive American that should get the credit.

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Jesus.  Those are probably optimistic estimates too. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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2 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

+100

Succinct and to the point. We don't have very much information but from what we do know, the vast majority of deaths have been with people who because of age, chronic illness, decades of heavy smoking and the like have compromised cardiovascular or immune systems. Although shutting things down to maximize social distancing so as to reduce spread of the disease is essential at this point in time, we are beginning to get into the realm of overreaction.

As an example, yesterday California governor Gavin Newsom announced that K-12 schools will likely not reopen until the fall. How ridiculous is that? This is not a disease of the young and although "distance learning" is becoming prevalent, school isn't just academics. Among other things, school also provides for at least one good meal per day for kids who often otherwise don't get one, at least some exercise for many kids who similarly don't get any, and social interaction not possible electronically. How how about all those employed by schools? At a minimum, if schools won't be open there will be no reason for custodians to continue to work.

Let too many government officials like Newsom make policy decisions on this stuff and we risk crashing the economy. And how many people would THAT kill?

In the way we’re responding to this custodians are probably more vital employees than teachers. 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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4 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

All true, but our government is rolling out tools supposedly reserved for actual existential threats.  Covid-19 is not an existential threat.  We are going to pay a huge, huge price for these gross over reactions by politicians in an election year.  I get people are scared and want to feel like the government is protecting them, but we are throwing the baby out with the bathwater.  All of these measures should be targeted.  This virus has a predilection (unlike H1N1) and we know exactly who it is.  Old people and people with co-morbidity health issues.  Those people should take extreme caution.  Not the whole damn country.

Our politicians have to outdo each other.   They have to act this way or the leftist media will take them down

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1 minute ago, NorCalCoug said:

Yeah, I think that should be considered a win all things considered.

I think Q1 is going to be -6%, Q2 -18% and Q3 +3%.  My expectation is unemployment is going to skyrocket to 10-12% in the short term.  

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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2 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

+100

Succinct and to the point. We don't have very much information but from what we do know, the vast majority of deaths have been with people who because of age, chronic illness, decades of heavy smoking and the like have compromised cardiovascular or immune systems. Although shutting things down to maximize social distancing so as to reduce spread of the disease is essential at this point in time, we are beginning to get into the realm of overreaction.

As an example, yesterday California governor Gavin Newsom announced that K-12 schools will likely not reopen until the fall. How ridiculous is that? This is not a disease of the young and although "distance learning" is becoming prevalent, school isn't just academics. Among other things, school also provides for at least one good meal per day for kids who often otherwise don't get one, at least some exercise for many kids who similarly don't get any, and social interaction not possible electronically. How how about all those employed by schools? At a minimum, if schools won't be open there will be no reason for custodians to continue to work.

Let too many government officials like Newsom make policy decisions on this stuff and we risk crashing the economy. And how many people would THAT kill?

I don't know any doctors who don't feel the same way. I'll be curious to see what the increase in Covid related psychiatric admissions will be.

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8 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Jesus.  Those are probably optimistic estimates too. 

I would be happy with those results.  Hell that is good news 

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