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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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2 minutes ago, mugtang said:

The government should start selling “corona bonds” similar to what we did in WWII with “war bonds”. 

 

I have no clue what to say about that one!  maybe?  

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12 hours ago, mugtang said:

They’re already working on anti-viral treatments.  My guess is they find something that successful in most patients within a month and the FDA fast tracks it to approval, other consequences be damned. 

I'm already in the secret trial... so far the only side effect is I grew a third breast.  :lol:

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down in a hole.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Billings said:

uhh South Korea and Taiwan are winning the war by testing the crap out of everyone.  oh wait

For now. The whole point of the study everyone is basing these lockdowns on is this thing isn’t going away, once it’s in the population in large numbers you have to lock everyone down.

We’re well past the point of having a chance at being Taiwan and South Korea.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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12 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

That 68,000 number is getting misquoted a lot. It does not help the conversation when numbers are not used correctly.

According to the study everyone is hearing, Italy saw 68,000 deaths starting in the 2013-14 flu season then going to and including the 2016-17 flu season. That is 4 flu seasons, not one or two.

Italy's per flu season death breakdown is:

  • 2013/14: 7,027
  • 2014/15: 20,259
  • 2015/16: 15,801
  • 2016/17: 24,981

Source study:  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

For comparison, currently Italy has reported 2,503 coronavirus deaths as of today with more unfortunately to come especially if their medical system reaches capacity and they start triaging/prioritizing patients as is being reportedly planned. Additionally the coronavirus cases and deaths are on top of the numbers from the current flu season.

Thank you.

People here need to just stop equating the US to Italy. I don't mean to downplay what we're all going through but our situation is simply NOT of Italian proportions nor is it going to get that bad.

More broadly speaking, some of the things on this thread are so alarmist that I have to wonder whether they were posted by this guy:

hf5oi73wh6x7dpapzn4q.png

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Boom goes the dynamite.

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17 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Linked upthread: Link

Sorry. 

I'm slow today

 

Uhm

Quote

We assumed an incubation period of 5.1 days9,10 . Infectiousness is assumed to occur from 12 hours prior to the onset of symptoms for those that are symptomatic and from 4.6 days after infection in those that are asymptomatic with an infectiousness profile over time that results in a 6.5-day mean generation time. Based on fits to the early growth-rate of the epidemic in Wuhan10,11, we make a baseline assumption that R0=2.4 but examine values between 2.0 and 2.6. We assume that symptomatic individuals are 50% more infectious than asymptomatic individuals

Not to make something bad already worse, 1) they assume infectiousness of only 12 hours prior to symptoms but we are seeing that be 72 hours

2) they assume symptomatic individuals are more infectious but we're seeing higher viral loads in the NON SYMPTOMATIC samples

 

Both of those I think would present worsening conditions in the models.

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One of the Final Five..........

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13 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

Trump's messaging needs to improve. BIGLY!

He is a wartime president now. The messaging needs to be clear, concise and accurate. There isn't a need to talk about approval ratings, China or anything other than what the government is doing to win this war. 

 

I thought he was fine today, and I've never been accused of being a trump fan

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Idk how many hospital beds they have in Sea-Tac, but given we have the 2nd-largest USMC base on the planet and are the homeport of the 7th Fleet, I imagine that there will be a need for ancillary beds here as well. Fortunately, hospital ships are eminently mobile.

Doesn't San Diego have the 1st & 2nd largest Marine bases in the world?  Or are you not considering Pendleton?

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

@Wyovanian my apologies man. We fell a lot faster than I thought. 

Bud, I love you.  But you got to stop watching the news for a day or two and stop running models through your head.  There are are a lot of ways this could play out, some less bad than others.  Take your kids for a walk, and talk about Tom Brady going to the Patriots or something.

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My babysitter is back from visiting family in Spain, safe and sound as far as we know.  Two week self isolation of course.  I'm grateful she's home.

They had young kids with them, and of course cut the trip short.  Getting through the airport and the rest of the travel must have been hell.

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4 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

For now. The whole point of the study everyone is basing these lockdowns on is this thing isn’t going away, once it’s in the population in large numbers you have to lock everyone down.

We’re well past the point of having a chance at being Taiwan and South Korea.

if you are saying the CDC and government totally screwed up the response?  Then Yes I agree and the FDA is now making it worse

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3 minutes ago, Broncomare said:

Doesn't San Diego have the 1st & 2nd largest Marine bases in the world?  Or are you not considering Pendleton?

I would guess that 29 Palms is the largest.  But between Pendleton, Miramar, NAS N Island, and Balboa Naval Hospital, there has to be resources available to aid the region.

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1 minute ago, CPslograd said:

I thought he was fine today, and I've never been accused of being a trump fan

Everyone is going to have their own opinion. Mine is that people don't care about anything else than getting money in their pockets to pay their bills, not get sick, and get this over as fast as possible. Anything that doesn't track with that such as the name of the virus, polls, and the election don't matter right now. There will be plenty of time for that after. Stick to what the government is doing and what people should be doing. 

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1 minute ago, CPslograd said:

My babysitter is back from visiting family in Spain, safe and sound as far as we know.  Two week self isolation of course.  I'm grateful she's home.

Being curious, how long would you believe it would take before you are comfortable with them babysitting at your house?  

It may be interesting to see what the anxiety of this will be moving forward.  Even moreso if the fear now becomes proven to be merited.

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8 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Holy hell...

 

 

i'm out alia shawkat GIF by Drunk History

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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1 minute ago, East Coast Aztec said:

I would guess that 29 Palms is the largest.  But between Pendleton, Miramar, NAS N Island, and Balboa Naval Hospital, there has to be resources available to aid the region.

Pendleton has a hospital (as I'm sure you are aware), which is pretty good sized.  But I think Balboa is bigger.  

 

 

 

 

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