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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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4 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

This is all starting to look like an apocalyptic event like in the Walking Dead where months from now we’ll have to rebuild from scratch. Not nearly that bad, no zombies, but whoever thought a scenario like this would ever come to pass. 

I'm just angry that we've known about this virus since December and did absolutely nothing about it. I remember being in my classroom reading a news story on it the first week back from winter break. Imagine where we would be if we had a 3 month head start to get in front of it.   

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I have a theoretical question.  And I want to be very clear that this is theoretical, not real world.  And equally clear that I wish no one misconstrue my post as being insensitive about the casualties of this pandemic.

But, is it viable to shut down the economy and society in general as we are doing?  How long is this sustainable?  Millions of people are going to be out of work by Monday.  The government can only push out so much money.  Is it possible that dramatic social distancing measures are causing the virus to mutate through self selection in a way that will make it even more virulent?  I'm not questioning the experts, and I swear I'm not minimizing the problem.  I just think these are questions we need to ask.  Because you can't shut down every thing for long.

I think flattening the curve sounds like a viable course of action.  But at some point we are going to have to have an honest conversation about acceptable losses, or else face societal collapse..

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3 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

I'm just angry that we've known about this virus since December and did absolutely nothing about it. I remember being in my classroom reading a news story on it the first week back from winter break. Imagine where we would be if we had a 3 month head start to get in front of it.   

What could we have changed? More testing sooner, for sure. But Americans are used to their freedom & practically have to be hit in the head. 

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6 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Just curious, have any of the local hospitals, governments etc...reached out to you to plug a hole in the line if necessary?

I already work at the hospital. Fitted with our PPE as the lingo is. Canceled elective surgeries and waiting for the bug to hit. They sent out requests to local non affiliated docs to be available if possible. Our patients check in and wait in their cars until we call them. Trying to set up telemedicine terminals for home visits as we speak. Only one visitor per patient and no kids. It’s tough for the families considering I deliver babies. So far no local infections. 

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20 hours ago, Rebelbacker said:

If you want call it the Wuhan virus because that's where it really started. No different than Lyme disease or Ebola or a ton of other diseases that are named from their original location. It's not racist, it's the facts. And by the way everyone from Ted Lieu to CNN was calling it exactly that until they decided they could score points by changing the name and saying it was racist. 

This started November 17. The CCP hid it from the WHO and arrested doctors trying to get the word out for over a month. They didn't close their borders and allowed people to fly out. That's one of the main reasons Italy was hit so hard. They lied about their cases and no one really believes their numbers. Add to that now they have a disinformation campaign where they are trying to pin this on the US Army and the US government. Not to mention they have threatened to not send us drugs or medical supplies that American companies make there. So +++++ their government. The same government that steals our intellectual property and uses slave labor to make our products. I have no ill feelings towards the Chinese people but their government can go to hell. 

 

I’m good with the Wuhan Virus.

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7 hours ago, Los_Aztecas said:

Here is an article from the verge. https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184015/coronavirus-testing-pcr-diagnostic-point-of-care-cdc-techonology

TLDR

German test was there but we didn't use it. Plus we don't have the infrastructure to run that type of test in an epidemic.

They used different  German proteins for the PCR test because the CDC thought there were to many false results with the original. Unfortunately, the CDC produced an even faultier test initially. PCR testing is actually very common but like the article says can be labor intensive. The Koreans do it faster because they have the capability to prep the samples mechanically rather than manually as they do here. Who knows why we can’t. I don’t know if it’s a regulatory issue. Anyway, the new rapid tests should help a lot.

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51 minutes ago, Broncomare said:

What could we have changed? More testing sooner, for sure. But Americans are used to their freedom & practically have to be hit in the head. 

We could have adopted the WHO test instead of insisting on creating our own.

We could have started ramping up testing production when we closed the border instead of waiting.  

here is the graphic that shows testing here and in Korea.  
 

65694236-251F-4E19-AEDD-098DC0DE8820.png.ba83646dd9ea456d47dbc966f4a98f4c.png

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1 hour ago, Broncomare said:

What could we have changed? More testing sooner, for sure. But Americans are used to their freedom & practically have to be hit in the head. 

Not just Americans, everyone has been caught off guard by this and no one was that well prepared except for maybe South Korea. People want to play the blame game right now which isn't doing any good at this point. We need solutions, constant bitching is not helping anyone or anything. This isn't targeted at you obviously. :)

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2 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

This is important enough that I am cross-posting this from the thread in the sport forum:

According to a report released just yesterday by the Imperial College of London, as per their own modeling social distancing is the single largest causal factor in reducing the severity of the pandemic.

Link

And in the absence of the social-distancing led effort to mitigate this pandemic here in the United States?

Link

Their model also predicts the epidemic curve:

Screen-Shot-2020-03-17-at-7-25-09-PM.png

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, mugtang said:

Well if we can save 2 million lives by shutting down for 20-30 days it makes sense to do it. 

Holy +++++ing shit this is not good!!! This isn’t going to work guys. You flatten the curve with 5 months of lockdown, but once you relax things for one month it begins rising again requiring another two months of lock down. Rinse and repeat until a vaccine is found or until we get herd immunity. That could take two years. This is going to be a world war 3 causing depression.

DB0-F9-D07-8538-4149-9636-98-F918-AEE0-A

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2 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

 

Holy +++++ing shit this is not good!!! This isn’t going to work guys. You flatten the curve with 5 months of lockdown, but once you relax things for one month it begins rising again requiring another two months of lock down. Rinse and repeat until a vaccine is found or until we get herd immunity. That could take two years This is going to be a world war 3 causing depression.

Well if China is telling the truth and what South Korea has done, then there is a chance to flatten the curve with in a couple of months. Some are claiming a vaccine might be ready by this fall for the masses. Something has to give, destroying the economy could end up harming more people than the virus. It's still early.

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6 minutes ago, BroncoOrange said:

Well if China is telling the truth and what South Korea has done, then there is a chance to flatten the curve with in a couple of months. Some are claiming a vaccine might be ready by this fall for the masses. Something has to give, destroying the economy could end up harming more people than the virus. It's still early.

No chance for a vaccine in America by the fall. Phase 1 of clinical trials for the one in Seattle lasts an entire year. There’s still 2 more phases after that, unless the FDA wants to just say to hell with it and start injecting people with questionable stuff like Jonas Salk.

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1 hour ago, CPslograd said:

I have a theoretical question.  And I want to be very clear that this is theoretical, not real world.  And equally clear that I wish no one misconstrue my post as being insensitive about the casualties of this pandemic.

But, is it viable to shut down the economy and society in general as we are doing?  How long is this sustainable?  Millions of people are going to be out of work by Monday.  The government can only push out so much money.  Is it possible that dramatic social distancing measures are causing the virus to mutate through self selection in a way that will make it even more virulent?  I'm not questioning the experts, and I swear I'm not minimizing the problem.  I just think these are questions we need to ask.  Because you can't shut down every thing for long.

I think flattening the curve sounds like a viable course of action.  But at some point we are going to have to have an honest conversation about acceptable losses, or else face societal collapse..

It’s not viable. We’re royally +++++ed into becoming communists, or letting a few million Americans die.

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11 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

No chance for a vaccine in America by the fall. Phase 1 of clinical trials for the one in Seattle lasts an entire year. There’s still 2 more phases after that, unless the FDA wants to just say to hell with it and start injecting people with questionable stuff like Jonas Salk.

I have a feeling they will be expediting that. 

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24 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

 

Holy +++++ing shit this is not good!!! This isn’t going to work guys. You flatten the curve with 5 months of lockdown, but once you relax things for one month it begins rising again requiring another two months of lock down. Rinse and repeat until a vaccine is found or until we get herd immunity. That could take two years. This is going to be a world war 3 causing depression.

DB0-F9-D07-8538-4149-9636-98-F918-AEE0-A

That’s the imperial college estimate.  But if that’s the case we will have really hard decisions to make. It’s possible the economic disruption could kill more than the virus.  If we can get widespread testing up and isolate those who test positive we can relax the restrictions.  We need to ramp up testing now. South Korea isn’t isolating their entire country.  This is where our system has serious flaws.  We have trouble implementing wide scale testing like that. 

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18 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

No chance for a vaccine in America by the fall. Phase 1 of clinical trials for the one in Seattle lasts an entire year. There’s still 2 more phases after that, unless the FDA wants to just say to hell with it and start injecting people with questionable stuff like Jonas Salk.

I think that might be the best (of cascading worse) option(s). 

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11 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

It’s not viable. We’re royally +++++ed into becoming communists, or letting a few million Americans die.

Have a drink or ten my friend.  I hear you, but I think our worst fears won't be realized.

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1 minute ago, CPslograd said:

Have a drink or ten my friend.  I hear you, but I think our worst fears won't be realized.

I hope that study is very, very wrong. If not, Big Pharma needs to come through in a Manhattan project style big way the first time around.

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33 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

 

Holy +++++ing shit this is not good!!! This isn’t going to work guys. You flatten the curve with 5 months of lockdown, but once you relax things for one month it begins rising again requiring another two months of lock down. Rinse and repeat until a vaccine is found or until we get herd immunity. That could take two years. This is going to be a world war 3 causing depression.

DB0-F9-D07-8538-4149-9636-98-F918-AEE0-A

Upon seeing those graphs, my friend, ever the eternal optimist, responded by saying, "Hey - July looks GREAT!" 

Not to make bad news worse, but I read a report over the weekend in which it was reported they've observed and measured a reproduction number of 3.5 in person-to-person transmissions, which is more than 50% greater than the R0 used in that model run. That would increase the magnitude of those intermittent peaks.

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