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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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Just now, scounty said:

Haven't followed it that closely. Just what I see and hear from time to time. He isn't anti vax, as his initial rollout of the vax was specifically targeted to those in the targeted age range that were at high risk in a state with a large retiree population. He's specifically anti vax mandate. What is the initial reporting on the vaccines and how it deals with Omni? I've seen that Israel has numbers through the roof and that the vax may not work on Omni either? I don't know, the science aspect of it is way outside my ability to understand. Too much info out there going either way. Personally, I just avoid large crowds and hope I don't catch it as mitigation efforts seem to be useless at this point.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/01/24/florida-officials-fume-at-biden-for-limiting-monoclonal-antibody-use/

I'm pretty set on DeSantis unless a non politician I like runs. Just as long as Trump doesn't, which I'm not confident in.

What pisses me off the most about this entire ordeal, outside of the fact I lost 5 friends from Delta, is that the Chinese government will just wash their hands of it and call it good because they know they run the world economy to a large degree and nobody will push back on them. Particularly if it was lab generated, which Faucis own e mails early on might suggest they knew all along.

DeSantis is a typical new era R-populist. He’s sh!t. Sorry.  Find someone else to back, seriously. 

The data is overwhelmingly clear on the efficacy of vaccinations vs. Omicron for hospitalizations, ICUs, and mortalities.  I’ve never seen anything like the questioning of the Covid vaccines. It’s insane. 

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18 hours ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

They started monitoring the wastewater flow for virus loads at the UCSD campus early in the pandemic. At least here it’s now being done regionally. 

Here they have been doing it for a while, as some study and they have been seeing different things, but yea they have been looking at wastewater here as well. And with more and more areas doing it, that could be a thing for the future to see about future waves or find other things as well. 

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On 1/27/2022 at 6:22 PM, scounty said:

Haven't followed it that closely. Just what I see and hear from time to time. He isn't anti vax, as his initial rollout of the vax was specifically targeted to those in the targeted age range that were at high risk in a state with a large retiree population. He's specifically anti vax mandate. What is the initial reporting on the vaccines and how it deals with Omni? I've seen that Israel has numbers through the roof and that the vax may not work on Omni either? I don't know, the science aspect of it is way outside my ability to understand. Too much info out there going either way. 

 

Too much info either way?  (I missed that before).  That is a crazy, crazy statement.  You don’t need to be a data scientist to understand simple percentages. Israel showed the same effects which is why the CDC recommendations for a 3rd dose were too long delayed here, but at least it got there. 

 

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On 1/27/2022 at 5:22 PM, scounty said:

Haven't followed it that closely. Just what I see and hear from time to time. He isn't anti vax, as his initial rollout of the vax was specifically targeted to those in the targeted age range that were at high risk in a state with a large retiree population. He's specifically anti vax mandate. What is the initial reporting on the vaccines and how it deals with Omni? I've seen that Israel has numbers through the roof and that the vax may not work on Omni either? I don't know, the science aspect of it is way outside my ability to understand. Too much info out there going either way. Personally, I just avoid large crowds and hope I don't catch it as mitigation efforts seem to be useless at this point.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/01/24/florida-officials-fume-at-biden-for-limiting-monoclonal-antibody-use/

I'm pretty set on DeSantis unless a non politician I like runs. Just as long as Trump doesn't, which I'm not confident in.

What pisses me off the most about this entire ordeal, outside of the fact I lost 5 friends from Delta, is that the Chinese government will just wash their hands of it and call it good because they know they run the world economy to a large degree and nobody will push back on them. Particularly if it was lab generated, which Faucis own e mails early on might suggest they knew all along.

The vaccines are massively effective at reducing hospitalizations and deaths with omicron. Anybody avoiding that fact to sell you on "look at the case counts the vaccines don't work" is a bad dumb person.

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On 1/28/2022 at 2:53 AM, wolfpack1 said:

Some British scientists believe the new Omicron BA.2 variant has the possibility of taking over for Omicron. Omicron cases are slowly increasing again in Britain with 1 of every 20 new cases being the BA.2 variant. 

Good news is VE (vaccine effectiveness) appears to be similar to BA.1 (possibly better, but it’s early w/limited data) for the BA.2.  From the U.K.  Go to p15 for the comparison table:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050721/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-4.pdf

 

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On 1/28/2022 at 7:54 AM, toonkee said:

The vaccines are massively effective at reducing hospitalizations and deaths with omicron. Anybody avoiding that fact to sell you on "look at the case counts the vaccines don't work" is a bad dumb person.

Bad person, yes. Dumb, it depends.  There are a lot of lying fvckers out there. 

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On 1/28/2022 at 7:15 AM, grandjean87 said:

The manipulators with influence are the dangerous ones whether out of ignorance, pride, greed, and/or other human deficits.

Ignorance on the part of the manipulated is a problem too. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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On 1/28/2022 at 8:25 AM, Bob said:

 

N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care PersonnelA Randomized Clinical Trial

Key Points

Question  Is the use of N95 respirators or medical masks more effective in preventing influenza infection among outpatient health care personnel in close contact with patients with suspected respiratory illness?

Findings  In this pragmatic, cluster randomized clinical trial involving 2862 health care personnel, there was no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among health care personnel with the use of N95 respirators (8.2%) vs medical masks (7.2%).

Meaning  As worn by health care personnel in this trial, use of N95 respirators, compared with medical masks, in the outpatient setting resulted in no significant difference in the rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

 

It is pure fantasy that wearing masks of any kind will reduce respiratory illnesses .

That doesn't say what you think it says, if that is your conclusion.  And I am not a mask lover.

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On 1/28/2022 at 9:25 AM, Bob said:

 

N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care PersonnelA Randomized Clinical Trial

Key Points

Question  Is the use of N95 respirators or medical masks more effective in preventing influenza infection among outpatient health care personnel in close contact with patients with suspected respiratory illness?

Findings  In this pragmatic, cluster randomized clinical trial involving 2862 health care personnel, there was no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among health care personnel with the use of N95 respirators (8.2%) vs medical masks (7.2%).

Meaning  As worn by health care personnel in this trial, use of N95 respirators, compared with medical masks, in the outpatient setting resulted in no significant difference in the rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

 

It is pure fantasy that wearing masks of any kind will reduce respiratory illnesses .

A better study would have broken down the rates between the "self-reported" compliance groups. 1/3 of the participants in both groups were "sometimes" or "never" compliant.

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@Bob  what are you confused on?  You said it is a fantasy that any mask reduces respiratory illness, and used a study that analyzed effectiveness comparisons between two types of masks, so your conclusion already didn't jive with the study whatsoever.  Moreover, if we just face-valued the results with one having an 8% infection and the other around 7% with over 25% exposures on both mask groups, and we just accepted that with no confounding variables, at least one would be better than the other, just insignificant, and with a positivity rate less than the exposure rate, you cannot confidently conclude masks did absolutely nothing.  You just can't.  

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On 1/28/2022 at 8:25 AM, Bob said:

 

N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care PersonnelA Randomized Clinical Trial

Key Points

Question  Is the use of N95 respirators or medical masks more effective in preventing influenza infection among outpatient health care personnel in close contact with patients with suspected respiratory illness?

Findings  In this pragmatic, cluster randomized clinical trial involving 2862 health care personnel, there was no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among health care personnel with the use of N95 respirators (8.2%) vs medical masks (7.2%).

Meaning  As worn by health care personnel in this trial, use of N95 respirators, compared with medical masks, in the outpatient setting resulted in no significant difference in the rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

 

It is pure fantasy that wearing masks of any kind will reduce respiratory illnesses .

That's an interesting study and I appreciate you having posted it.

I see two glaring issues with the study. One is captured in the "Limitations" section: we know now - with a far larger dataset to validate it - that homes were the #1 source of transmission of COVID. So while these HCPs were wearing their PPE in the workplace, they were just as likely to get exposed to influenza at Costco or gatherings of family and friends as anyone else.

As mentioned, this is reflected in the "Limitations" clause:

Quote

Fourth, participants were not instructed to wear protective devices outside the workplace, which may have biased the results toward finding no difference between groups...

Second, not all participants adhered to the mask safety protocols as defined in the study. From the section titled, "Intervention, Adherence, and Adverse Events:"

Quote

 

Adherence was reported on daily surveys 22 330 times in the N95 respirator group and 23 315 times in the medical mask group. “Always” was reported 14 566 (65.2%) times in the N95 respirator group and 15 186 (65.1%) times in the medical mask group; “sometimes,” 5407 (24.2%) times in the N95 respirator group and 5853 (25.1%) times in the medical mask group; “never,” 2272 (10.2%) times in the N95 respirator group and 2207 (9.5%) times in the medical mask group...

 

So 34.4% - over a third - of the participants (19,973 to be exact) didn't "always" adhere to the safety protocols. I imagine it is possible at least some of the 207 laboratory-confirmed cases (amongst the 2862 randomized participants) could have come from those who did not always keep their mask on at the workplace.

In the end, when you have one study that reaches conclusions that represent an outlier and contradict a bunch of other published studies, it helps to take a qualitative approach to try to understand why. You see Bob, sometimes it helps to not be a sheep and actually read these and think for yourself. You should try it sometime. :cheers:

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St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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On 1/27/2022 at 3:31 PM, Bob said:

hmm wonder why all these people are wearing masks? hmmm. Could have something to do with bacteria, which covid isn't

do you honestly think that only bacteria is transferred during surgery?

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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On 1/28/2022 at 8:52 AM, Bob said:

The performance of two masks is analyzed, one is supposedly the gold standard mask. There is no statistically significant improvement in the gold standard vs an inferior masks. The CDC recently said that all masks but the gold standard N95 masks do not work and all other masks were called "facial decorations". If there is no difference between a n95 and any other masks the only conclusion is that N95 are worthless and are also "face decorations".

See I don't dive into the mask game much.  CDC reports called surgical masks facial decorations?  And are they still talking about using them to not transmit or are they talking about not contracting?  Because this study is about contracting.  I just don't know (or really care too much) to do the analysis of a bunch of studies.

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On 1/28/2022 at 9:05 AM, Bob said:

The reason your masks does not work is because it is impossible to seal a mask. If a mask were sealed completely you would not be able to breathe and you would pass out. Air passes through the edges freely and viruses escape and move freely. Look! It is really not a hard concept to understand. Viruses might have a harder time passing through the actual mask material, but it's moot. It just goes right through the margins, and covid is an airborne virus. You suck that shit right into your mask and into your pie hole regardless of the quality of your mask.

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Let me help you out there. N95s are negative pressure respirators, meaning they seal when you inhale, and break the seal when you exhale. N95s are primarily designed to protect the wearer, not others.

The example you post above references the lack of efficacy when exhaling, and has no bearing on the perfectly functional seal they have - when fitted properly - while inhaling.

That being said, even exhaling there is a significant amount of "exhaust" that gets caught up in the fabric, though as you show, a majority of exhaled breath simply exits the mask - as it is intended to do. 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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