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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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@Bobis found of graphs. He should ponder this one. Residents of Trumper counties are almost three times more likely to die of Covid. 
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

9822BF14-9B98-40C0-8205-9EA487DB1DEC.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

@Bobis found of graphs. He should ponder this one. Residents of Trumper counties are almost three times more likely to die of Covid. 
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

9822BF14-9B98-40C0-8205-9EA487DB1DEC.jpeg

Is 50 deaths per 100,000 statistically significant? That's like less than a percent isn't it?

Just a question.

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12 minutes ago, CV147 said:

Is 50 deaths per 100,000 statistically significant? That's like less than a percent isn't it?

Just a question.

Quote: People living in counties that went 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.7 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher COVID-19 mortality rates.

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I think it’s hard to put the anti-vax crowd into a neat little box and say here, this is who they are. What we see every day in our lives is anecdotal at best, but it does paint a picture of what is going on at the micro level. Yuma is a deep red county with a history of distrusting Govt, yet we have the highest vaccination rate in Arizona outside of the Navajo Reservation. I haven’t seen the numbers broken down by demographic, but what I see personally is very few people are resisting the vaccine, and for the most part, when wearing a mask was mandatory most people complied because they didn’t want to be assholes to their neighbors. Yuma functions for the most part as a small town even though our population is 120,000. There is a take care of your neighbors attitude here that make it a great place to live.

On an even smaller level is what is happening at my work place. All 26 of us are and have been fully vaccinated since May. The majority of us hold very Libertarian views when it comes to politics, the minority are Trump die hards. The catalyst for us was watching COVID run through our work place like a brush fire back in January, and the fact that it killed two of our guys. That outbreak happened when three Govt guys from the Program Office visited our site in late December of last year. One of them had COVID and spread it to us. When the mandate came down for Govt workers and contractors to be vaccinated the company we worked for was surprised that we were all vaccinated. They are having issues with people at other sites like Fallon NV, and Cherry Point NC not complying. 
If you go 20 miles up the road to Yuma Proving Ground, the majority of those guys are vaccinated too. Again those guys are also very Libertarian with a good bunch of Trump supporters.  All people who the media says are the majority of ant-vaxers. Hell, even my crazy conspiracy theorist brother in law is vaccinated. I think it all depends on the community you live in, and the personal experiences people have had with COVID. I personally don’t know anyone who refuses to get vaccinated. My family is vaccinated, my inner circle of friends and coworkers are, as are my two next door neighbors. We don’t talk to the neighbors across the street, because we rarely see them. They went hermit when COVID broke. 
When I talk to my dad in New Mexico, he says it’s pretty much the same where he and my mom are. I’m pretty sure ani-vaxers are the minority, they are just a very vocal minority who are getting all the attention.

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35 minutes ago, CV147 said:

Is 50 deaths per 100,000 statistically significant? That's like less than a percent isn't it?

Just a question.

Looks like closer to 100 for the higher Trump voter counties, but yes, that’s significant (50 or 100). Prior to Covid the national suicide rate was around 14.  Idaho is now around 20 and Wyoming approaching 30 in what you could call in lay terms an epidemic.   High Trump voter counties deaths at 5 times Idaho’s elevated suicide rate for example. 

Opiod overdose deaths are lower by a few or more multiples depending on the state.  So, there are probably counties where it’s close to ten-fold greater Covid deaths than the epidemic we were hearing about for a few years before Covid. 

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53 minutes ago, grandjean87 said:

Looks like closer to 100 for the higher Trump voter counties, but yes, that’s significant (50 or 100). Prior to Covid the national suicide rate was around 14.  Idaho is now around 20 and Wyoming approaching 30 in what you could call in lay terms an epidemic.   High Trump voter counties deaths at 5 times Idaho’s elevated suicide rate for example. 

Opiod overdose deaths are lower by a few or more multiples depending on the state.  So, there are probably counties where it’s close to ten-fold greater Covid deaths than the epidemic we were hearing about for a few years before Covid. 

50 out of 1,000 is what as a percentage? Is it 0.05 percent? So death rate is 0.05% higher in a red state? Granted, that's double the blue state, but really?

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30 minutes ago, CV147 said:

50 out of 1,000 is what as a percentage? Is it 0.05 percent? So death rate is 0.05% higher in a red state? Granted, that's double the blue state, but really?

I think I saw the 70-30 opposite voters were like a 3x, but yeh the small, fractional mortality % rates are a factor to consider.  (Remember they are annualized)

We are all collectively not very likely to die of Covid even if unvaxxed. We are also not likely to die in a car wreck, overdose, or suicide.   All of those other things we implement social policy to prevent have been multiples less than Covid mortalities.  So, I think it matters a little. 

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38 minutes ago, CV147 said:

50 out of 1,000 is what as a percentage? Is it 0.05 percent? So death rate is 0.05% higher in a red state? Granted, that's double the blue state, but really?

5%, not .05% (that would be 50 out of 100,000)

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In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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I think there is a disconnect  and people are trying to put everyone into one neat little pile when that isn't the case because you have sub groups of people, and as more information comes out, and things are ever forming that is also changing the group but everyone keeps wanting to put them into a group. But another thing that plays into it, is the unknown nature of the virus, there is a lot of stuff that the doctors and such don't know about the virus which them later on counterdicts stuff that came out earlier so then people are like which way do I go.

But there are people who don't get the vaccine because for whichever medical condition or medical situation they are going through it has been determined for them not to get them, you have another group of people that it is part of their religion to where they don't get vaccinated and such, there is another group of people that just don't want to get the vaccine, and then another group of people that is a little weary of them for some questions we don't know the answers to yet like how like they last, how truly effective they are which are always changing because we really don't know since this is all new. But you have all those sub groups who are being demonized by others without knowing those things. And now a new group has formed where they are asking the question of if I am going to get it no matter if I am vaccinated or not then why should I get it?

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1 hour ago, wolfpack1 said:

And now a new group has formed where they are asking the question of if I am going to get it no matter if I am vaccinated or not then why should I get it?

Because if you’re vaccinated you have a far, far lower likelihood of hospitalization and death, that’s why. 

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3 hours ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

Because if you’re vaccinated you have a far, far lower likelihood of hospitalization and death, that’s why. 

We don't know that, even Fauci has changed his wording on that to we believe. We have people that have been vaccinated that have died and been in the hospital and we have had the unvaccinated as well for the same thing. We have had people who have never been vaccinated who catch Covid and never show any symptoms and some who catch it who become deathly ill. They don't know why. In parts of the country there are more vaccinated people in the hospital with Covid than non vaccinated people. In some countries in the world, that are 97-99% vaccinated where their hospitals are being over run with Covid cases now and are going into shutdowns for the Christmas holiday. 

I am not anti-vax if you want to get vaccinated fine, if you don't that's fine. The thing is every thing is always evolving and three months from now we probably have different information that we have now. Just like now the scientists are starting to work on with each wave and strain, it is becoming easier to catch but deaths and hospitalizations even among the unvaccinated has gone down even and with new information that was released today with the Omicron where it is more easily transmitted than Delta but they are seeing less hospitalizations from it and minor to no symptoms in many of the people that tested positive who were being tested for another reason and then came back positive.

Thing is this isn't going to go away, it will always be there even WHO has said the same thing. It might follow a flu pattern when we find new strains of flu that pop up. 

 

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On 12/4/2021 at 5:25 PM, SalinasSpartan said:

Interesting. What frustrates me the most is seeing people previously apolitical that have morphed in to these hardcore partisans because COVID inconvenienced them. Like, “I used to not care about politics, but I found masks annoying, so now I am staunchly pro-anything Trump says”. Like my niece (through marriage) followed this progression EXACTLY. She’s even apparently called COVID the “China virus” online. I’m like, dude, YOU’RE FILIPINO. There are like 20 states you could visit where people would guess you were Chinese. 

Nothing at all wrong with calling it the China Virus.  Fight me.

 

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56 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Nothing at all wrong with calling it the China Virus.  Fight me.

 

Best buy parking lot. I'll do my best Bruce Buffer impersonation. 

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7 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

We don't know that, even Fauci has changed his wording on that to we believe. We have people that have been vaccinated that have died and been in the hospital and we have had the unvaccinated as well for the same thing. We have had people who have never been vaccinated who catch Covid and never show any symptoms and some who catch it who become deathly ill. They don't know why. In parts of the country there are more vaccinated people in the hospital with Covid than non vaccinated people. In some countries in the world, that are 97-99% vaccinated where their hospitals are being over run with Covid cases now and are going into shutdowns for the Christmas holiday. 

I am not anti-vax if you want to get vaccinated fine, if you don't that's fine. The thing is every thing is always evolving and three months from now we probably have different information that we have now. Just like now the scientists are starting to work on with each wave and strain, it is becoming easier to catch but deaths and hospitalizations even among the unvaccinated has gone down even and with new information that was released today with the Omicron where it is more easily transmitted than Delta but they are seeing less hospitalizations from it and minor to no symptoms in many of the people that tested positive who were being tested for another reason and then came back positive.

Thing is this isn't going to go away, it will always be there even WHO has said the same thing. It might follow a flu pattern when we find new strains of flu that pop up. 

 

You’re a moron. Please don’t reproduce. 

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9 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

We don't know that, even Fauci has changed his wording on that to we believe…

 

First, never reference Fauci. 

As of yesterday, only one nation is at 98% vaxxed w/some partial (UAE), and no U.S. state even close. 

The data on deaths and hospitalizations comparing vaccinated vs. unvaxxed is just straightforward across the board.  Maybe Omicron brings in the milder epidemic phase, but Delta is still rolling through the US pop.  

First link is deaths in USA.  It has an interactive feature by age groups. I’ve posted the all ages graphs here before.  The second link is the state of Washington on hospitalizations.  The multiples of protection of vaccinations for both are staggering.  Repeating, but they mirror the anecdotal deaths and hospitalizations I know of in my circles.  It would take just a few minutes to find other sources which do the same:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf

 

 

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16 hours ago, CV147 said:

50 out of 1,000 is what as a percentage? Is it 0.05 percent? So death rate is 0.05% higher in a red state? Granted, that's double the blue state, but really?

No. The death rate is 100% higher in a red state. 

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Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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3 hours ago, happycamper said:

No. The death rate is 100% higher in a red state. 

Since May 1st.

I'm curious to see the death data broken down by demographic or county like those scatter plots, but haven't seen them anywhere.

Liberal states had more cases early on, which helped with immunity in addition to vaccines.  And how much have average age demographics played a role? 

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6 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Since May 1st.

I'm curious to see the death data broken down by demographic or county like those scatter plots, but haven't seen them anywhere.

Liberal states had more cases early on, which helped with immunity in addition to vaccines.  And how much have average age demographics played a role? 

??? And what has happened since we figured out a more effective treatment regime?

the NIH is gonna have reams of data to parse this stuff out fortunately. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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