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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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8 hours ago, grandjean87 said:

I am, too. 

No surge in hospitalizations in South Africa is yet occurring.  A few well travelers have been identified so like the rest of the main strains, there will be a wide range of outcomes and most will be asymptomatic to mild. This may be the start of the endemic phase depending on how it goes and is eventually categorized. 

We now have more therapeutics, more convalescent patients, and plenty of vaccines (USA).  It’s too early to tell what Omicron will do, but I don’t think it’s going to be as deadly here as our Delta wave.  The global challenge is to get the less developed world immunized to high levels, get those newer vaccines out there, and have widespread distribution of effective therapeutics. Eventually, we’ll have a pan-coronavirus vaccine.

Back here in SW Idaho, we are who we are.   I just do my friendly thing to all I meet wherever.  Cast as much sunshine as I can.  

My concern is that it is far more contagious, like measles.   That will rip through the unvaccinated and those with no previous exposure quickly and mess up the hospitals again, or still in some states.  Many more high risk patients will die unless it has lessened in severity.. 

 

Worse case is measels contagious and can breakthrough the vaccines and previous infections.  I doubt we see that but.....

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1 hour ago, Billings said:

My concern is that it is far more contagious, like measles.   That will rip through the unvaccinated and those with no previous exposure quickly and mess up the hospitals again, or still in some states.  Many more high risk patients will die unless it has lessened in severity.. 

 

Worse case is measels contagious and can breakthrough the vaccines and previous infections.  I doubt we see that but.....

Just time to observe.  Be ready for what occurs.  

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1 hour ago, Maji said:

Incredibly dumb

oh who knows.   Better safe than Sorry kind of applies here.  They are also very advanced technically so may be doing what their scientists say.

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1 hour ago, grandjean87 said:

Just time to observe.  Be ready for what occurs.  

Observations From South Africa.

"Even though total cases across South Africa are still relatively low, health authorities are seeing a definite pattern in the people who are arriving in the hospital with serious illness: They’re younger and largely not fully vaccinated. “We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath Hospital, said at an online press briefing. “Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65 percent are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.” 

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/omicron-covid-south-africa-travel-bans-hospitals-surge.html

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5 minutes ago, Billings said:

Observations From South Africa.

"Even though total cases across South Africa are still relatively low, health authorities are seeing a definite pattern in the people who are arriving in the hospital with serious illness: They’re younger and largely not fully vaccinated. “We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath Hospital, said at an online press briefing. “Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65 percent are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.” 

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/omicron-covid-south-africa-travel-bans-hospitals-surge.html

Encouraging and yet not so at the same time.

 

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16 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Encouraging and yet not so at the same time.

 

We’re really early and no real data on it’s severity. Reuters has an article up on Omicron interviewing the head of their medical association saying that the symptoms are mostly fever, fatigue and body aches, relatively mild compared to other strains she’s treated. Hopefully all this knee jerk responses are premature.

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1 hour ago, NMpackalum said:

We’re really early and no real data on it’s severity. Reuters has an article up on Omicron interviewing the head of their medical association saying that the symptoms are mostly fever, fatigue and body aches, relatively mild compared to other strains she’s treated. Hopefully all this knee jerk responses are premature.

If this ends up causing more mild symptoms than other variants this could be a positive development, right? 

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1 hour ago, NMpackalum said:

We’re really early and no real data on it’s severity. Reuters has an article up on Omicron interviewing the head of their medical association saying that the symptoms are mostly fever, fatigue and body aches, relatively mild compared to other strains she’s treated. Hopefully all this knee jerk responses are premature.

 

yep but there is this

 

 Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and biostatistician at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston’s School of Public Health.

Jetelina referred to epidemiological modeling research estimating omicron is 500% more transmissible than the original novel coronavirus, while the delta variant was found to be 70% more transmissible.

 

If is escapes the vaccines and previous infections, then yea you will l get it or get it again if that is close to accurate.  Just a matter of time

 

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20 hours ago, Billings said:

Observations From South Africa.

"Even though total cases across South Africa are still relatively low, health authorities are seeing a definite pattern in the people who are arriving in the hospital with serious illness: They’re younger and largely not fully vaccinated. “We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath Hospital, said at an online press briefing. “Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65 percent are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.” 

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/omicron-covid-south-africa-travel-bans-hospitals-surge.html

I read a thread by @C_Althaus — Swiss epidemiologist — in the middle/end somewhere it surmised that basically all of South Africa had immunity via prior infected w/like 1/4 of the pop. vaxxed.  It suggests immune evasion is likely for Omicron.      

However, convalescent immunity is uncertain in duration and none of South Africa has been boosted.  3rd doses and hybrid immunity here should be a headwind for serious cases here.  If O is as highly transmissible as appears, and it’s as likely to cause serious cases, we might just repeat that pandemic of the unvaxxed still underway. 

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23 minutes ago, grandjean87 said:

I read a thread by @C_Althaus — Swiss epidemiologist — in the middle/end somewhere it surmised that basically all of South Africa had immunity via prior infected w/like 1/4 of the pop. vaxxed.  It suggests immune evasion is likely for Omicron.      

However, convalescent immunity is uncertain in duration and none of South Africa has been boosted.  3rd doses and hybrid immunity here should be a headwind for serious cases here.  If O is as highly transmissible as appears, and it’s as likely to cause serious cases, we might just repeat that pandemic of the unvaxxed still underway. 

good grief.   A couple of weeks until we see the vaccine data on how well they will stand up.  I agree that for those who have had covid once, at least a mild case, this one looks to infect them again.  We have to hope the booster will fortify us.  There is no shortage of vaccine in South Africa.  They are choosing to not vax or boost.  That sounds familiar.

 

So much for getting. herd immunity by letting it run its course.  Was as stupid idea from day one

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Enough with all this epidemiologist bullshit.

 

 

What do random morons on Twitter say?

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In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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6 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

If this ends up causing more mild symptoms than other variants this could be a positive development, right? 

We will be rooting for the variant to become dominant in that case.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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