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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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42 minutes ago, Bob said:

A great article by the incomparable el gato malo:

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/a-pandemic-so-bad-that-if-we-stop

Pandemic of the century of the millennium in Sweden

Was pretty much a nothing burger there

Over 15,000 dead in a country with 10 million people.

If they were a US State they'd be 9th best in deaths per capita.

Wyoming has almost twice as many deaths per capita. Because Sweden is at 82% adults vaccinated.

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49 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Over 15,000 dead in a country with 10 million people.

If they were a US State they'd be 9th best in deaths per capita.

Wyoming has almost twice as many deaths per capita. Because Sweden is at 82% adults vaccinated.

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Per capita Wyoming has the most deaths in nursing homes in the country.  https://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/health/wyoming-covid-19-nursing-home-deaths-highest-in-nation/article_9a2daaad-5f5f-563c-b7bb-d56d85458d9b.html

 

Horrible record on dealing with Covid.

 

Given modern medical knowledge most of those old Sweden pandemics would have had a very low death rate, other than maybe the Spanish Flu which was a killer.

 

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California seems to be doing pretty well, btw. Had an uptick like last week, and then leveled out. 

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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6 hours ago, Bob said:

A great article by the incomparable el gato malo:

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/a-pandemic-so-bad-that-if-we-stop

Pandemic of the century of the millennium in Sweden

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Was pretty much a nothing burger there

ec626b63-7439-4d18-8841-1e01c3efa650_120

 

Sheep Farm GIF by TLC

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5 hours ago, smltwnrckr said:

California seems to be doing pretty well, btw. Had an uptick like last week, and then leveled out. 

1800 deaths per million in California vs. 2300 deaths per million in Wyoming since the beginning.

So 40,000-ish lives saved in California compared to if they would have done the same thing as Wyoming.

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Scientists have voiced concern about a new COVID variant that has a "really awful" combination of mutations that could possibly cause the virus to evade immunity.

The variant, now called B.1.1.529, was reported on just days ago after a small cluster of cases were spotted by Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London in the U.K.

As of Wednesday this week, the variant had been detected in Botswana, South Africa, and Hong Kong, and there were only 10 cases reported, The Guardian newspaper reported.

Sequencing data does not yet appear to be listed on variant tracking platforms like GISAID or Outbreak.info.

Despite the low number of cases, B.1.1.529 has some experts worried due to the mutations it has.

In a Twitter thread on Tuesday, Peacock said the variant had a number of notable mutations such as K417N, S477N and E484A among several others associated with the virus' spike protein. The virus uses this protein to enter human cells.

Peacock wrote: "Worth emphasising this is at super low numbers right now in a region of Africa that is fairly well sampled, however it very very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile (would take a guess that this would be worse antigenically than nearly anything else about)."

https://www.newsweek.com/b-1-1-529-new-covid-variant-evade-immunity-countries-cases-south-africa-1653257

 

Lovely

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38 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Scientists have voiced concern about a new COVID variant that has a "really awful" combination of mutations that could possibly cause the virus to evade immunity.

The variant, now called B.1.1.529, was reported on just days ago after a small cluster of cases were spotted by Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London in the U.K.

As of Wednesday this week, the variant had been detected in Botswana, South Africa, and Hong Kong, and there were only 10 cases reported, The Guardian newspaper reported.

Sequencing data does not yet appear to be listed on variant tracking platforms like GISAID or Outbreak.info.

Despite the low number of cases, B.1.1.529 has some experts worried due to the mutations it has.

In a Twitter thread on Tuesday, Peacock said the variant had a number of notable mutations such as K417N, S477N and E484A among several others associated with the virus' spike protein. The virus uses this protein to enter human cells.

Peacock wrote: "Worth emphasising this is at super low numbers right now in a region of Africa that is fairly well sampled, however it very very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile (would take a guess that this would be worse antigenically than nearly anything else about)."

https://www.newsweek.com/b-1-1-529-new-covid-variant-evade-immunity-countries-cases-south-africa-1653257

 

Lovely

I think south Africa was up to 100+ cases of it last I saw this morning.

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49 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Scientists have voiced concern about a new COVID variant that has a "really awful" combination of mutations that could possibly cause the virus to evade immunity.

The variant, now called B.1.1.529, was reported on just days ago after a small cluster of cases were spotted by Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London in the U.K.

As of Wednesday this week, the variant had been detected in Botswana, South Africa, and Hong Kong, and there were only 10 cases reported, The Guardian newspaper reported.

Sequencing data does not yet appear to be listed on variant tracking platforms like GISAID or Outbreak.info.

Despite the low number of cases, B.1.1.529 has some experts worried due to the mutations it has.

In a Twitter thread on Tuesday, Peacock said the variant had a number of notable mutations such as K417N, S477N and E484A among several others associated with the virus' spike protein. The virus uses this protein to enter human cells.

Peacock wrote: "Worth emphasising this is at super low numbers right now in a region of Africa that is fairly well sampled, however it very very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile (would take a guess that this would be worse antigenically than nearly anything else about)."

https://www.newsweek.com/b-1-1-529-new-covid-variant-evade-immunity-countries-cases-south-africa-1653257

 

Lovely

9 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

I think south Africa was up to 100+ cases of it last I saw this morning.

Ugh. Almost makes me want to dig up those mobility models I used in mid-Jan 2020 to determine SARS-CoV-2 was already stateside. :facepalm:

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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13 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

1800 deaths per million in California vs. 2300 deaths per million in Wyoming since the beginning.

So 40,000-ish lives saved in California compared to if they would have done the same thing as Wyoming.

Take Fresno out of that, and it's even better.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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51 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

It was based on the spike mutations 

Understood but real world experience can be different and I think they are unsure of what the mutations mean still.  Hopefully it is less contagious than Delta and can't compete.

 

South Africa is not very well vaccinated but has a very high infection rate from previous variants.   Might be able to beat the vaccine and previous infections.

 

England has banned travel from South Africa and several African neighboring countries.

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The father of one of my son's friends died of covid on Wednesday. He was in his late 50's, very overweight and had other health issues in the past, yet refused to be vaccinated. It is tragic, he leaves behind 15 and 18 year old sons, their Mother had passed away several years ago. The crowd he runs with argued against vaccination due to the politics, but also were using the argument that getting the vaccination would be showing a lack of faith in God. I am deeply saddened for his kids.

 

 

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I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and money
The shit has hit the fan

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