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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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1 hour ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Or neither. The strain in Cambodia isn’t as closely related as the one in Yunnan. And even if it were, that doesn’t get you any closer to Wuhan.

Okay? That doesn't matter to my point. The strain in Yunnan was discovered after researchers decided to test frozen bat samples for corona viruses after the novel corona virus appeared. They were surprised to find how many corona viruses were similar to the current outbreak. It wasn't a thorough geographical survey of bats, Yunnan wasn't the only place that a similar virus was found, and the bat the original article cited is far from the only bat that is infected by type 2 coronaviruses. It is unclear how many coronaviruses are similar to the current outbreak, it is unclear what their distribution is, and we have no idea how many strains there are that are more similar to the current pandemic. We simply know from a small sample that there are similar endemic viruses ranging from Cambodia to China to Japan, a broad distribution. 

These were all covered both in my post and in my links. 

Again, the guy is either misinformed or lying. 

Moral of the story? Hesitate before trusting a dude who uses yahoo as his professional e-mail. Some jagoff mwcboarder can point out the issues with his thinking. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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6 hours ago, happycamper said:

Okay? That doesn't matter to my point. The strain in Yunnan was discovered after researchers decided to test frozen bat samples for corona viruses after the novel corona virus appeared. They were surprised to find how many corona viruses were similar to the current outbreak. It wasn't a thorough geographical survey of bats, Yunnan wasn't the only place that a similar virus was found, and the bat the original article cited is far from the only bat that is infected by type 2 coronaviruses. It is unclear how many coronaviruses are similar to the current outbreak, it is unclear what their distribution is, and we have no idea how many strains there are that are more similar to the current pandemic. We simply know from a small sample that there are similar endemic viruses ranging from Cambodia to China to Japan, a broad distribution. 

These were all covered both in my post and in my links. 

Again, the guy is either misinformed or lying. 

Moral of the story? Hesitate before trusting a dude who uses yahoo as his professional e-mail. Some jagoff mwcboarder can point out the issues with his thinking. 

What point do you think you’re making, that bats carry coronaviruses? Nobody disputed that, least of all the article where the paragraph you quoted says verbatim horseshoe bats carry coronaviruses. According to the article used to support this non-enlightening observation, “The species is sedentary, typically travelling up to 30 kilometres (19 mi) between the winter and summer roosts, with the longest recorded movement being 180 km (110 mi).”

Just because we haven’t found a population where the disease might have come from, doesn’t mean it’s a lie or being misinformed to say we haven’t found any bat carrying SARS-COV2 and the population we have found that is the closest is hundreds of miles away. Those are the honest facts as we have them.

Perhaps MIT Technology Review has an email address more credible for you.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The first was that someone became directly infected by a bat or its guano. Because of how these viruses can attach to receptors on human cells, direct infection is a possibility. But direct transmission isn’t favored as the cause of the current pandemic. That’s because the bats harboring SARS-like viruses live many hundreds of miles from Wuhan. “Since Wuhan is not a city or environment close to these bats’ environment, a direct jump from bats is not very likely,” Ben Embarek said during the press event...

The researchers went on to dismiss the lab accident theory as “extremely unlikely,” saying they had agreed not to pursue it any further. Their reasoning was fairly simple: Chinese scientists at several Wuhan labs told them they had never seen the virus before and hadn’t worked on it. “There could be a leak of a virus, but it should be a known or existing virus,” Liang reasoned, according to a translator. “If it doesn’t exist, there will be no way that this virus would be leaked.”

...One problem with the lab leak theory is that it presumes the Chinese are lying or hiding facts, a position incompatible with a joint scientific effort. This may have been why the WHO team, for instance, never asked to see the offline database...

...The scenario the WHO-China team said it considers most probable is the “intermediary” theory, in which a bat virus infected another wild animal that was then caught or farmed for food. The intermediary theory does have the strongest precedents. Not only is there the case of SARS, but in 2012 researchers discovered Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), a deadly lung infection caused by another coronavirus, and quickly traced it to dromedary camels.

The trouble with this hypothesis is that Chinese researchers have not succeeded in finding a “direct progenitor” of this virus in any animal they’ve looked at. Liang said China had tested 50,000 animal specimens, including 1,100 bats in Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. But no luck: a matching virus still hasn’t been found.

I feel pretty sturdy going out on that bolded and underlined limb.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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On 5/4/2021 at 8:12 AM, happycamper said:

Well, in @smltwnrckr is a prophet part 2,386...

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/05/liberals-covid-19-science-denial-lockdown/618780/

Sigh. I'm fully vaccinated. just the first shot protects me at 94%. I had the virus concurrently, so I'm protected that way too. I don't wear a mask outside. I don't have a problem shaking people's hands. Lockdown isn't a lifestyle, it's a set of measures designed to ameliorate deaths and damage to the economy over a finite span. 

 

Just a FYI for people that liked the article happy posted; the author is a guest on this episode of the 538 podcast. 

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11 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

What point do you think you’re making, that bats carry coronaviruses? Nobody disputed that, least of all the article where the paragraph you quoted says verbatim horseshoe bats carry coronaviruses. According to the article used to support this non-enlightening observation, “The species is sedentary, typically travelling up to 30 kilometres (19 mi) between the winter and summer roosts, with the longest recorded movement being 180 km (110 mi).”

Just because we haven’t found a population where the disease might have come from, doesn’t mean it’s a lie or being misinformed to say we haven’t found any bat carrying SARS-COV2 and the population we have found that is the closest is hundreds of miles away. Those are the honest facts as we have them.

Perhaps MIT Technology Review has an email address more credible for you.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The first was that someone became directly infected by a bat or its guano. Because of how these viruses can attach to receptors on human cells, direct infection is a possibility. But direct transmission isn’t favored as the cause of the current pandemic. That’s because the bats harboring SARS-like viruses live many hundreds of miles from Wuhan. “Since Wuhan is not a city or environment close to these bats’ environment, a direct jump from bats is not very likely,” Ben Embarek said during the press event...

The researchers went on to dismiss the lab accident theory as “extremely unlikely,” saying they had agreed not to pursue it any further. Their reasoning was fairly simple: Chinese scientists at several Wuhan labs told them they had never seen the virus before and hadn’t worked on it. “There could be a leak of a virus, but it should be a known or existing virus,” Liang reasoned, according to a translator. “If it doesn’t exist, there will be no way that this virus would be leaked.”

...One problem with the lab leak theory is that it presumes the Chinese are lying or hiding facts, a position incompatible with a joint scientific effort. This may have been why the WHO team, for instance, never asked to see the offline database...

...The scenario the WHO-China team said it considers most probable is the “intermediary” theory, in which a bat virus infected another wild animal that was then caught or farmed for food. The intermediary theory does have the strongest precedents. Not only is there the case of SARS, but in 2012 researchers discovered Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), a deadly lung infection caused by another coronavirus, and quickly traced it to dromedary camels.

The trouble with this hypothesis is that Chinese researchers have not succeeded in finding a “direct progenitor” of this virus in any animal they’ve looked at. Liang said China had tested 50,000 animal specimens, including 1,100 bats in Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. But no luck: a matching virus still hasn’t been found.

I feel pretty sturdy going out on that bolded and underlined limb.

The point I'm making is that the author of the article is either so misinformed that he is misrepresenting the facts of corona virus infections among bats, or he's aware of his own misrepresentations and so is lying. 

Lawlor, the dude claims that there is a "geographic error" with the idea that horseshoe bats are the carriers of a naturally occurring virus. His evidence is that the most similar corona virus found to the current pandemic was found in Yunnan, that horseshoe bats have a ~50 km range, and that one species of horseshoe bat - the intermediate horseshoe bat - is not extant near Wuhan.

Except every part of that is bullshit. Corona viruses are endemic among all horseshoe bats, from Slovenia to Japan, as I posted. Type II corona viruses similar to the current one have been found in China, Indonesia, and Japan, as I posted. The survey that discovered these similar viruses was not thorough or geographically based; it was simply a testing of already sampled bats after the fact. Assuming that this survey is a definitive mapping of similar coronaviruses amongst all horseshoe bats is ludicrous. Almost finally, he claims that "horseshoe bats" couldn't make it to Wuhan, while citing a single species - omitting the fact that 3 other species of horseshoe bat are found in and near Wuhan, all of which are natural reservoirs for coronavirus. Finally, he also omits the fact that the original virus wasn't mapped to a random wild encounter. It came from a wet market. The idea that a hunter couldn't have possibly sourced their bat from outside the Wuhan area is ridiculous - are we supposed to assume that humans developed a crippling inability to travel in China in late 2019? 

As I said earlier, there's a case for accidental release, probably a fairly strong one, but the article you posted presents it too strong and the author severely damages their credibility with the "geographic" argument. That article would have been far more convincing if it had simply omitted that "geographic" issues section. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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23 hours ago, Joe from WY said:

Interesting article in the Chronicle today about people who are refusing the vax, even here in the Bay Area. Diverse crowd of people too.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/We-asked-these-Bay-Area-vaccine-holdouts-what-it-16153882.php

 

No, Im not going to subscribe to the SF Chronicle. Damn paywalls.

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On 5/6/2021 at 1:26 PM, THEUniversityofNevada said:

I have never put a political sticker on my car, or my fridge, or anywhere. After 9-11, I may have stuck an US Flag sticker on my car. I certainly never stuck a giant flag celebrating a politician on my car or house either. Slavish devotion to a politician is moronic.

My late grandma used to say, "freedom of expression is a poor substitute for freedom of thought." 

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I did a volunteer shift today at the UCSD vaccination station. I was the initial screener. I made sure they had an email with a bar code confirming today’s date (they told us not to even worry about times). I had to ask everyone if they had had a positive Covid test within the last 2 weeks and if they had experienced any symptoms in the last two days. I had to confirm that 2nd shot appointments had their vaccination card and if not tell them how to get a new one. For 1st shot appointments I had to ask if they were Medicare patients. It was at times an uncomfortable question to ask. A lot of the Asian students were confused by the question. Some Anglo adults got angry. One South Asian guy with his son also got angry and told his son “they wouldn’t ask that if we were American.” Only two people answered yes. They were two East African Muslim women. San Diego has a big Sudanese population. They told us it was asked for statistical purposes. 

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On 5/6/2021 at 3:21 PM, UNLV2001 said:

 

Hold the bees, please. I'll just let a cute nurse shove a pipe cleaner up my nose. 

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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On 5/7/2021 at 9:11 AM, happycamper said:

The point I'm making is that the author of the article is either so misinformed that he is misrepresenting the facts of corona virus infections among bats, or he's aware of his own misrepresentations and so is lying. 

Lawlor, the dude claims that there is a "geographic error" with the idea that horseshoe bats are the carriers of a naturally occurring virus. His evidence is that the most similar corona virus found to the current pandemic was found in Yunnan, that horseshoe bats have a ~50 km range, and that one species of horseshoe bat - the intermediate horseshoe bat - is not extant near Wuhan.

Except every part of that is bullshit. Corona viruses are endemic among all horseshoe bats, from Slovenia to Japan, as I posted. Type II corona viruses similar to the current one have been found in China, Indonesia, and Japan, as I posted. The survey that discovered these similar viruses was not thorough or geographically based; it was simply a testing of already sampled bats after the fact. Assuming that this survey is a definitive mapping of similar coronaviruses amongst all horseshoe bats is ludicrous. Almost finally, he claims that "horseshoe bats" couldn't make it to Wuhan, while citing a single species - omitting the fact that 3 other species of horseshoe bat are found in and near Wuhan, all of which are natural reservoirs for coronavirus. Finally, he also omits the fact that the original virus wasn't mapped to a random wild encounter. It came from a wet market. The idea that a hunter couldn't have possibly sourced their bat from outside the Wuhan area is ridiculous - are we supposed to assume that humans developed a crippling inability to travel in China in late 2019? 

As I said earlier, there's a case for accidental release, probably a fairly strong one, but the article you posted presents it too strong and the author severely damages their credibility with the "geographic" argument. That article would have been far more convincing if it had simply omitted that "geographic" issues section. 

You use “viruses similar to the current one” more loosely than can be applied to Dre’s mom. Yes, coronaviruses are endemic to the horseshoe bat, but the vast majority of most of them don’t mean a damn thing when it comes to infecting humans. The percentage difference between the viruses found in the Yunnan caves and the frozen specimen tested in Cambodia is roughly the genetic difference between humans and chimps, and humans and cats, respectively. The lineage of the disease is what is in question and what the author is talking about. He, and we, and everybody else that seems to be catching up, can say with a good degree of certainty that if a natural outbreak of the Rona is the culprit, there are specific caves in a specific region of China because scientists have been looking into this sort of thing since the SARS outbreak two decades ago. Most of the bats with coronavirus mean almost nothing to the SARS or Covid.

When bat guano miners fell ill with SARS like symptoms in 2013, intrepid warrior monk scientists braved the creepy darkness of the caves Yunnan, grabbed 117 of those disgusting winged mammals, and shoved a fancy cotton swab in their ass. Those samples were taken to the Wuhan Institute of Virology where in 2013 they found two novel strains and in 2017 determined that to the exclusion of all other populations studied elsewhere, the bats in these caves showed a genetic diversity of coronaviruses that could make SARS possible. It was these bats with these specific viruses in this place that provided a viral stew where the virus could mutate, find animal hosts in enough numbers to mutate again and jump to humans, that would then infect the chefs and animal handlers that were the human population that was first recognized as contracting the disease.

We have not a single intermediary animal carrier that has been found for Covid, which is unlike the camels with MERS or the civets with SARS that were found within months. Now the fact that they found nothing doesn’t theoretically mean there isn’t some bat population with a rich genetic diversity of a Covid like virus that has gone undiscovered, while also being in the proximity of intermediary species that exist in a large enough population for the virus to mutate into something that is extremely successful at transmitting to other humans, and our world has been shook to its core because of a very unlikely miracle of evolution. But the circumstantial evidence against it grows with each passing day. 

And then there is this, where we have to wait for some peer reviews. But if this checks out, sometimes circumstantial evidence in the absence of all others becomes damming.

 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.073262v1.full

In a side-by-side comparison of evolutionary dynamics between the 2019/2020 SARS-CoV-2 and the 2003 SARS-CoV, we were surprised to find that SARS-CoV-2 resembles SARS-CoV in the late phase of the 2003 epidemic after SARS-CoV had developed several advantageous adaptations for human transmission. Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV. However, no precursors or branches of evolution stemming from a less human-adapted SARS-CoV-2-like virus have been detected.

Thats not a natural virus struggling and mutating in the face of a hostile universe to survive. That’s a disease that’s ready to roll on day one, with no intermediary species and no bay population to point the finger to.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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4 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

You use “viruses similar to the current one” more loosely than can be applied to Dre’s mom. Yes, coronaviruses are endemic to the horseshoe bat, but the vast majority of most of them don’t mean a damn thing when it comes to infecting humans. The percentage difference between the viruses found in the Yunnan caves and the frozen specimen tested in Cambodia is roughly the genetic difference between humans and chimps, and humans and cats, respectively. The lineage of the disease is what is in question and what the author is talking about. He, and we, and everybody else that seems to be catching up, can say with a good degree of certainty that if a natural outbreak of the Rona is the culprit, there are specific caves in a specific region of China because scientists have been looking into this sort of thing since the SARS outbreak two decades ago. Most of the bats with coronavirus mean almost nothing to the SARS or Covid.

When bat guano miners fell ill with SARS like symptoms in 2013, intrepid warrior monk scientists braved the creepy darkness of the caves Yunnan, grabbed 117 of those disgusting winged mammals, and shoved a fancy cotton swab in their ass. Those samples were taken to the Wuhan Institute of Virology where in 2013 they found two novel strains and in 2017 determined that to the exclusion of all other populations studied elsewhere, the bats in these caves showed a genetic diversity of coronaviruses that could make SARS possible. It was these bats with these specific viruses in this place that provided a viral stew where the virus could mutate, find animal hosts in enough numbers to mutate again and jump to humans, that would then infect the chefs and animal handlers that were the human population that was first recognized as contracting the disease.

We have not a single intermediary animal carrier that has been found for Covid, which is unlike the camels with MERS or the civets with SARS that were found within months. Now the fact that they found nothing doesn’t theoretically mean there isn’t some bat population with a rich genetic diversity of a Covid like virus that has gone undiscovered, while also being in the proximity of intermediary species that exist in a large enough population for the virus to mutate into something that is extremely successful at transmitting to other humans, and our world has been shook to its core because of a very unlikely miracle of evolution. But the circumstantial evidence against it grows with each passing day. 

And then there is this, where we have to wait for some peer reviews. But if this checks out, sometimes circumstantial evidence in the absence of all others becomes damming.

 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.073262v1.full

In a side-by-side comparison of evolutionary dynamics between the 2019/2020 SARS-CoV-2 and the 2003 SARS-CoV, we were surprised to find that SARS-CoV-2 resembles SARS-CoV in the late phase of the 2003 epidemic after SARS-CoV had developed several advantageous adaptations for human transmission. Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV. However, no precursors or branches of evolution stemming from a less human-adapted SARS-CoV-2-like virus have been detected.

Thats not a natural virus struggling and mutating in the face of a hostile universe to survive. That’s a disease that’s ready to roll on day one, with no intermediary species and no bay population to point the finger to.

I get you're invested in this theory,  Lawlor.  I've pointed out its plausible.  

You on the other hand are singularly unable to admit even an iota of inaccuracy or malfeasance in the part of a single point of your weakest source.  Okay.  I'll let you be married to your theory.  This has become football and not politics to you.

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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2 minutes ago, happycamper said:

I get you're invested in this theory,  Lawlor.  I've pointed out its plausible.  

You on the other hand are singularly unable to admit even an iota of inaccuracy or malfeasance in the part of a single point of your weakest source.  Okay.  I'll let you be married to your theory.  This has become football and not politics to you.

I’m only married to the theory that you are misinformed here while simultaneously calling someone else misinformed based on the fact that bats and other, non-human infecting forms of coronavirus exist. Sorry that speculation doesn’t hold up until it has something behind it.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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Just now, thelawlorfaithful said:

I’m only married to the theory that you are misinformed here while simultaneously calling someone else misinformed based on the fact that bats and other, non-human infecting forms of coronavirus exist. Sorry that speculation doesn’t hold up until it has something behind it.

Lol Lawlor. The dude completely misrepresented the range of horseshoe bats, the prevalence of coronaviruses within their population,  how widespread type 2 coronaviruses are in Asia,  how complete our sampling of both bats and coronaviruses are,  and ignored the fact that the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan happened at a market,  which is a place where humans gather products from far afield to sell. 

Like I said, this is football for you now.  It makes China look more asshole and you like that,  so instead of " for me the evidence points to accidental release, more than natural genesis due to the different levels of evidence of each" you go full Roger Stone denying everything. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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20 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-buxar-coronavirus-covid-panic-in-bihar-town-as-over-40-bodies-wash-up-on-banks-of-ganga-2438888

Title says it all.  Bodies being dumped into the Ganges.  India is averaging almost 400k official new cases per day.  4000 deaths per day and rising.

Dozens more washed up today.

It is estimated only 25% of deaths in India are medically certified in normal times. Here's a good article on BBC about how one newspaper in Gujarat (the home state of India's PM) worked to quantify the delta between official death counts and the actual numbers. From the above-linked article:

Quote

"So the newspaper decided to do some old-fashioned shoe-leather journalism. On the evening of 11 April, two reporters and a photographer staked out the mortuary of the 1,200-bed state-run Covid-19 hospital in Ahmedabad. Over 17 hours, they counted 69 body bags coming out of a single exit before they were loaded into waiting ambulances. Next day, Gujarat officially counted 55 deaths, including 20 from Ahmedabad."

So, while the official death count in Gujarat's capital city was 20 over a 24-hour period, these reporters counted 69 just from one hospital over just 17 hours.

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From the same article above:

Quote

"But reportage by other newspapers has stood up the alleged under-counting. The English language Hindu newspaper, for example, reported it had information that 689 bodies were cremated or buried in the seven cities following Covid-19 protocols on 16 April, when the official death toll for the entire state was 94. Some experts reckoned that last month alone Gujarat might have under-counted Covid-19 deaths by a staggering factor of 10."

 

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50 minutes ago, Bob said:

So many superspreader events and no uptick in cases? What gives. No one wearing their masks. I was told these neanderthals would be dead by now

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1392084826132414470?s=20

Its called vaccinations, and yes people are still wearing masks here.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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3 hours ago, Bob said:

So many superspreader events and no uptick in cases? What gives. No one wearing their masks. I was told these neanderthals would be dead by now

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1392084826132414470?s=20

2 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Watch out Bob the leftist echo chamber is going to get you banned from this board. 

Or ffs...

There have been approx. 1.7 million people fully vaccinated in Harris County (think Houston), and another 400K have already had COVID. So together, approx. 45% of the population is removed from the susceptible population. Maybe that has just a little to do with it?

F*cking anti-science morons... :rolleyes:

And BTW, of those 400K who have had COVID, over 6K - approx. 1.5% - have died from it.

Lastly, for comparison's sake, how are the flu (influenza) numbers in Harris county what with all the "useless" mask ordinances in place?

Screen-Shot-2021-05-11-at-1-22-55-PM.png

An average of two whole hospital visits per week dating back to last August. So how does that compare with the year before?

Screen-Shot-2021-05-11-at-1-27-41-PM.png

Turns out with mask ordinances in place, flu numbers fell off a cliff this year... imagine that. :rolleyes:

 

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