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bornontheblue

Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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Just now, smltwnrckr said:

I just hope people listen to him. Meet people where they're at while encouraging best practices. Even in a worst case fourth surge, people are not going to be willing to go back to square one. Or even square two, or three.

I'm afraid they won't listen unless the numbers surge significantly again. I called it wrong a year ago, I think, but I've been on board with Team @smltwnrckr's personal responsibility narrative for months now. But I'm also concerned people decide that as the vaccination lowers numbers that a certain segment use it as an excuse to not get one, even as they toss aside mitigation efforts. 

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20 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

I don't know that we're going to hit herd immunity. Kids can't get vaccinated and there are too many Bobs. But we can severely limit its transmission even without true herd immunity.

Herd immunity may be a pipe dream.  Just get the most vulnerable to the disease vaccinated - already pretty much there here in UT with some 80%+ of the 65+ age group already having it.  Does it really matter if kids get it?  It’s far less lethal to them than the flu and we don’t get hysterical about that.  Besides, it’s been shown that they (at least younger kids) don’t contract or spread the disease as readily as adults.

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5 hours ago, NorCalCoug said:

Herd immunity may be a pipe dream.  Just get the most vulnerable to the disease vaccinated - already pretty much there here in UT with some 80%+ of the 65+ age group already having it.  Does it really matter if kids get it?  It’s far less lethal to them than the flu and we don’t get hysterical about that.  Besides, it’s been shown that they (at least younger kids) don’t contract or spread the disease as readily as adults.

As things stand now, I am certainly not at all worried about it in terms of the health of children. I was just saying because we can't vaccinate kids we would basically need every healthy adult to get a vaccination, and that probably makes herd immunity, as you say, a pipe dream.

Ultimately, I don't know if that matters or not. Too many variables to know for sure. We don't know yet how long the vaccine will protect those who have received it or whether or not we see a mutation that could impact those who are immunized or more adversely affect the health of kids. And as long as we don't reach herd immunity, the chance of that happening will remain, even if it remains small. 

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10 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Herd immunity may be a pipe dream.  Just get the most vulnerable to the disease vaccinated - already pretty much there here in UT with some 80%+ of the 65+ age group already having it.  Does it really matter if kids get it?  It’s far less lethal to them than the flu and we don’t get hysterical about that.  Besides, it’s been shown that they (at least younger kids) don’t contract or spread the disease as readily as adults.

The purpose of herd immunity is that the disease stops circulating through various populations, concern with mutations, etc. Without it, the cycle continues, obviously slowed but not stamped out.  And no one knows how long the vaccines work. If everyone who can get the shot would do it ASAP would could just move on from the stupidity. 

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1 hour ago, NVGiant said:

I don't know that we're going to hit herd immunity. Kids can't get vaccinated and there are too many Bobs. But we can severely limit its transmission even without true herd immunity.

Probably this.  The kids will need to get vaccinated to hit herd immunity because of the math and science challenged anti-vaxxers. But, we just need to be close enough to get the Rt skimming a bit above 0.  

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1 hour ago, NevadaFan said:

The purpose of herd immunity is that the disease stops circulating through various populations, concern with mutations, etc. Without it, the cycle continues, obviously slowed but not stamped out.  And no one knows how long the vaccines work. If everyone who can get the shot would do it ASAP would could just move on from the stupidity. 

Too many Bobs.

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Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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1 hour ago, NevadaFan said:

The purpose of herd immunity is that the disease stops circulating through various populations, concern with mutations, etc. Without it, the cycle continues, obviously slowed but not stamped out.  And no one knows how long the vaccines work. If everyone who can get the shot would do it ASAP would could just move on from the stupidity. 

+1.  Not sure why this isn’t easily understood?

Additionally, we are seeing new spread for children with at least the B.1.1.7 variant.  The data are still immature, but the concern is there.  It’s not unreasonable to think a more serious (for children, young, and all) variant could emerge more easily w/o getting close to herd immunity. 

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We phucked up a lot with this pandemic.  But...this is good news!  We always find a way to kick ass.  :USFlag:

 

 

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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26 minutes ago, mugtang said:

We phucked up a lot with this pandemic.  But...this is good news!  We always find a way to kick ass.  :USFlag:

 

 

Yeah, I think for all the quibbling we've done well with our vaccination rollout. Could be better, I'm sure, but it appears we're still doing better than most any other. And that's a very good thing.

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Antivirals have been in the biotech news a lot recently:

https://endpts.com/with-one-pandemic-still-raging-jj-bets-780m-on-a-potential-flu-therapy-for-the-next/

Forgot about the (free) subscription wall, but antiviral conjugates (AVCs) have wide potential.

“AVCs differ from vaccines and monoclonal antibodies in that they’re potent long-acting drugs, Stein (CEO of Ciadara Therapeutics) said on a call with investors on Monday. Similar to antibody-drug conjugates, which consist of a therapeutic attached to an antibody, AVCs are antivirals coupled to a human antibody fragment, or Fc. They’re designed to inhibit viral replication while also engaging the immune system.”

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2 hours ago, mugtang said:

We phucked up a lot with this pandemic.  But...this is good news!  We always find a way to kick ass.  :USFlag:

 

 

Not so fast. I am watching the Blue Jays play the Rangers in a full stadium, and not a mask to be seen on a fan, LOL 

 

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Amazing.

https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/141892/novel-hiv-vaccine-approach-shows-promise-in-landmark-first-in-human-trial/ 

A novel vaccine approach for the prevention of HIV has shown promise in Phase I trials, reported IAVI and Scripps Research. According to the organisations, the vaccine successfully stimulated the production of the rare immune cells needed to generate antibodies against HIV in 97 percent of participants.

The vaccine is being developed to act as an immune primer, to trigger the activation of naïve B cells via a process called germline-targeting, as the first stage in a multi-step vaccine regimen to elicit the production of many different types of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs). Stimulating the production of bnAbs has been pursued as a holy grail in HIV for decades. It is hoped that these specialised blood proteins could attach to HIV surface proteins called spikes, which allow the virus to enter human cells, and disable them via a difficult-to-access regions that does not vary much from strain to strain...

...As a next step, the collaborators are partnering with the biotechnology company Moderna to develop and test an mRNA-based vaccine that harnesses the approach to produce the same beneficial immune cells. According to the team, using mRNA technology could significantly accelerate the pace of HIV vaccine development, as it did with vaccines for COVID-19.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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23 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

Remember how people were yammering about how social distancing, mask wearing businesses shutting down were going to result in mass suicides. 

According to the NHCS (National Center for Health Statistics) and the NVSS (National Vital Statistics System). Suicides were actually lower in 2020 than they’ve been in the previous four years.

  • 2020: 44,834
  • 2019: 47,511
  • 2018: 48,344
  • 2017: 47,173
  • 2016: 44,965

 

 

 

 

While I applaud the fact that suicides are down, this doesn't mean that mental health generally isn't much worse as a result of telling everyone to stay inside for a year. I'll be interested to see how it shakes out in 2021. I have a massive package. Lockdowns generally don't help overall mental health and well being. 

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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16 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

Not so fast. I am watching the Blue Jays play the Rangers in a full stadium, and not a mask to be seen on a fan, LOL 

 

Negative.  Game was on local TV, was the lead story on the local news, and also the main story this morning on local radio.  mask usage was mixed.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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California to lift all but a few statewide restrictions (the ones to remain relate to conferences and large indoor gatherings) on June 15. This is assuming that vaccines are available for anyone over 16 by then and that hospitalization rates continue to trend downward. 

I will be interested in seeing if any local municipalities or institutions like colleges continue with tighter restrictions even after the state-level restrictions are gone. My county is not one of only two counties in the most restrictive tier, which is really +++++ing annoying. Especially since it might be due to a backlog of tests and not an actual accurate reflection of the current infection rate.

I hope that if we continue to see vax rates trend up and supply continue to flow into the state, and hospitalization numbers stay low, that we can get the restrictions off even earlier than that. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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