Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

[halfmanhalfbronco]

8 minutes ago, Los_Aztecas said:

Covid was bad, but it is merely speeding up a process that was begun decades ago. Robotics is coming, soon - manufacturing jobs will continue to dry up at a breakneck pace. Retail will continue to shrink. Truckers are going to be out of a job. Telemarketers, phone operators, ect will all be out of a job. AI will hit other areas of the economy we can't comprehend right now.

These economic conditions will continue to drive social change, create unease, angst, and anger. Our enemies don't even have to use this against us, we will do it to ourselves. 

 

A UBI is inevitable.  

[Del Scorcho]

for f*ck sake ...

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/09/21/915257112/in-a-month-u-k-could-see-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-every-day-expert-warns

[Del Scorcho]

3 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

uncomfortable thoughts by del scorcho

anyone else have a large lump in their throat when contemplating the long term affects of this pandemic? I’m convinced that life as we knew it ended earlier this year and its never coming back. Some of the changes we’ll be forced to make will enhance our life to some degree, but others …

A vaccine for COVID-19 is needed and will greatly help, but its not going to solve the myriad of problems that were exposed by our vulnerability to this virus. And the next virus is peeking its head around the corner waiting for its chance.

case in point

 

[BYUcougfan]

2 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

case in point

 

I have not eaten at a Sizzler in a long time, but aren't they kind of a cafeteria style in how you gets your sides and salads.  My guess that type of model is going to suffer for a while to come.  I don't agree with you that we will live like this forever.  At some point, if vaccines fail, then COVID becomes part of life.  You aren't going to keep people locked in their houses forever.

[NMpackalum]

We will get herd immunity with vaccines and natural exposure as long as people get the vaccine. It really grates on me when the media and anti-Trumpers drop doubts on the safety of a vaccine. I guess politics as usual but I would blame them for unnecessary deaths as much as people blame Trump.  There's no doubt in my mind that they won't release a vaccine until it's been appropriately tested. There are just too many trial lawyers around hoping for the first adverse outcome. I'll be the first in line to get the vaccine. If we still have thousands of deaths a month in a year, it's really no fault except our own.

[NVGiant]

47 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

I have not eaten at a Sizzler in a long time, but aren't they kind of a cafeteria style in how you gets your sides and salads.  My guess that type of model is going to suffer for a while to come.  I don't agree with you that we will live like this forever.  At some point, if vaccines fail, then COVID becomes part of life.  You aren't going to keep people locked in their houses forever.

Nobody is locked in their houses. People are choosing not to travel and go to restaurants on their own. This is where long-term behavior may change.

[NVGiant]

16 minutes ago, NMpackalum said:

We will get herd immunity with vaccines and natural exposure as long as people get the vaccine. It really grates on me when the media and anti-Trumpers drop doubts on the safety of a vaccine. I guess politics as usual but I would blame them for unnecessary deaths as much as people blame Trump.  There's no doubt in my mind that they won't release a vaccine until it's been appropriately tested. There are just too many trial lawyers around hoping for the first adverse outcome. I'll be the first in line to get the vaccine. If we still have thousands of deaths a month in a year, it's really no fault except our own.

Most polls, including this one and this one, say Democrats are more likely to get the vaccine than Republicans, which undercuts your point a bit. But underplaying the severity of the illness for months and promising vaccines by election day does undermine trust. Which may be why one of those polls I linked said that 36% of Republicans say they will immediately take it, compared to 58% of Democrats.

All that said, it is +++++ing weird that vaccines are breaking down on such dramatic partisan lines, too.

[BYUcougfan]

24 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

Nobody is locked in their houses. People are choosing not to travel and go to restaurants on their own. This is where long-term behavior may change.

Perhaps.  I don't see people not traveling and seeing the world, not going to restaurants, not going to their kids football games or soccer games, etc.......all indefinitely if vaccines don't end up working.  COVID will be just another thing that kills people.  It is not what I am hoping for, but life will go on regardless.

[BYUcougfan]

14 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

Most polls, including this one and this one, say Democrats are more likely to get the vaccine than Republicans, which undercuts your point a bit. But underplaying the severity of the illness for months and promising vaccines by election day does undermine trust. Which may be why one of those polls I linked said that 36% of Republicans say they will immediately take it, compared to 58% of Democrats.

All that said, it is +++++ing weird that vaccines are breaking down on such dramatic partisan lines, too.

I have no problem taking a vaccine.  I won't be lining up to be one of the first.  It has nothing to do with politics.

[NVGiant]

8 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

Perhaps.  I don't see people not traveling and seeing the world, not going to restaurants, not going to their kids football games or soccer games, etc.......all indefinitely if vaccines don't end up working.  COVID will be just another thing that kills people.  It is not what I am hoping for, but life will go on regardless.

People are not traveling in nearly the same numbers. Restaurants are hurting. Both the travel and restaurant industries have lost a significant number of their older customers, who have more time and money to spend on such things. They are at most risk so they're staying home in larger numbers. Those industries have also lost a good number of their middle-age customers, too.  

Parents will still go to their kids games, because for parents, it's worth it. And life will go on. People figure it out. But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the world will look a little different. I don't know by how much, but it wouldn't shock me to see masks worn in public to be a more permanent thing. I mean, doctors and dentists didn't really wear latex gloves before the 1980s. These kinds of things have a way of changing behaviors.

[BYUcougfan]

40 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

People are not traveling in nearly the same numbers. Restaurants are hurting. Both the travel and restaurant industries have lost a significant number of their older customers, who have more time and money to spend on such things. They are at most risk so they're staying home in larger numbers. Those industries have also lost a good number of their middle-age customers, too.  

Parents will still go to their kids games, because for parents, it's worth it. And life will go on. People figure it out. But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the world will look a little different. I don't know by how much, but it wouldn't shock me to see masks worn in public to be a more permanent thing. I mean, doctors and dentists didn't really wear latex gloves before the 1980s. These kinds of things have a way of changing behaviors.

If vaccines don't work and this just becomes life, then COVID will eventually stop being news.  No more nightly death tallies.  Maybe high risk groups will stay away, but everyone else will eventually get back to life.  Life would probably halt if we did nightly death counts for flu during flu season.  Nightly death counts for obesity, smoking, whatever.  COVID sucks and it kills people.  If we fail to stop it, then we live with it like we do all the other things that kill us and don't make us stay home.  Hopefully we continue to get better and treating it, which is highly likely.

[soupslam1]

Here is a good article on vaccine status:

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-top-candidates-progress-moderna-oxford-astrazeneca-russia-china-india-serum-institute-quixplained-explained-6605750/
 

It looks like phase three clinical trial data should be available by Pfizer in about a month. If the trial data is positive, it will be distributed immediately. Fingers crossed the vaccine will be found to be effective with minor side effects.  

[East Coast Aztec]

3 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Here is a good article on vaccine status:

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-top-candidates-progress-moderna-oxford-astrazeneca-russia-china-india-serum-institute-quixplained-explained-6605750/
 

It looks like phase three clinical trial data should be available by Pfizer in about a month. If the trial data is positive, it will be distributed immediately. Fingers crossed the vaccine will be found to be effective with minor side effects.  

Right in time for MWC football.  

[soupslam1]

16 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Right in time for MWC football.  

And basketball. 

[NevadaFan]

1 hour ago, BYUcougfan said:

If vaccines don't work and this just becomes life, then COVID will eventually stop being news.  No more nightly death tallies.  Maybe high risk groups will stay away, but everyone else will eventually get back to life.  Life would probably halt if we did nightly death counts for flu during flu season.  Nightly death counts for obesity, smoking, whatever.  COVID sucks and it kills people.  If we fail to stop it, then we live with it like we do all the other things that kill us and don't make us stay home.  Hopefully we continue to get better and treating it, which is highly likely.

They do death counts during flu season. Especially in those areas hit hardest. And the flu is estimated to kill roughly 35k per year in the US. Couple 35k with the roughly 100k that will die from Covid in the next four months and we’re looking at about 350k deaths this year from flu. 

[DestinFlPackfan]

3 hours ago, NMpackalum said:

We will get herd immunity with vaccines and natural exposure as long as people get the vaccine. It really grates on me when the media and anti-Trumpers drop doubts on the safety of a vaccine. I guess politics as usual but I would blame them for unnecessary deaths as much as people blame Trump.  There's no doubt in my mind that they won't release a vaccine until it's been appropriately tested. There are just too many trial lawyers around hoping for the first adverse outcome. I'll be the first in line to get the vaccine. If we still have thousands of deaths a month in a year, it's really no fault except our own.

I'll disagree with one important statement you made..this ' It really grates on me when the media and anti-Trumpers drop doubts on the safety of a vaccine'. 

Most of my friends and family on Facebook are ardent Trump supporters.... and almost to a person they state that they "will not" take a vaccine. Your spin on anti-Trumpers is completely wrong. 

Edit: I've asked all of the them "if Trump was to back a vaccine in the next couple months would you change your mind" ...they all said NO. 

[soupslam1]

I’ll definitely get a vaccine after it’s been out a month or two. I’m tired of being limited in where I can go and what I can do. 

[DestinFlPackfan]

3 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I’ll definitely get a vaccine after it’s been out a month or two. I’m tired of being limited in where I can go and what I can do. 

I'm with you...don't want to be the proverbial ' guinea pig'.

[BYUcougfan]

3 hours ago, NevadaFan said:

They do death counts during flu season. Especially in those areas hit hardest. And the flu is estimated to kill roughly 35k per year in the US. Couple 35k with the roughly 100k that will die from Covid in the next four months and we’re looking at about 350k deaths this year from flu. 

They don't do nightly death counts across the country and show how many cases today, how many are in the hospital, are doctors getting it, how many died, and on and on and on.  That kind of coverage on everything that kills us would keep everyone in their homes.

[NevadaFan]

1 hour ago, BYUcougfan said:

They don't do nightly death counts across the country and show how many cases today, how many are in the hospital, are doctors getting it, how many died, and on and on and on.  That kind of coverage on everything that kills us would keep everyone in their homes.

Maybe because during regular flu season 1-2k aren’t dying every night? Maybe because a pandemic doesn’t happen often? I agree the coverage doesn’t help but it’s not going anywhere until covid subsides so hopefully a vaccine is close-ish.