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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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1 minute ago, NorCalCoug said:

Would you like to make a friendly wager that we don’t hit that mark?

Betting on something like this is foolish.  Do you think I'm rooting for 410K deaths? This is simply based on current conditions/death rate, and if nothing changes from now till 2021. Clearly things will change between now and then, it could get better and it could get worse. Nobody knows? 

I would love for this to all be over tomorrow.

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23 minutes ago, Bob said:

Nope. I can't let you fearmonger unabated. The model you referenced claims Sweden will have over 12k deaths. They are at ~5k and the virus is OVER there. You have referenced the most worthless, piece of shit model ever made by any person in human history. Congrats.

this is from the University of Washington and is the source the White House uses.  How is that fear mongering? Why do you feel the need to constantly minimize this virus?

Bob, what are your epidemiologists saying?  How many deaths are they predicting? 

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To date, aside from the passing of a couple distant friends/family members of friends within our circle, the closest COVID has hit home until today was when a good friend's brother tested positive, but he was asymptomatic. Just found out today another friend's brother not only has COVID but is in a coma. Dude is healthy (well, before COVID) and in his mid 40s.

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Quote

The U.S. will top more than 410,000 Covid-19 deaths by the end of the year as the country heads into the fall and winter, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Covid-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will more than double by Jan. 1 and could reach as high as 620,000 if states aggressively ease coronavirus restrictions and people disregard public health guidance.

“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday.

In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track. Some epidemiologists and mathematicians, however, have criticized IHME for making predictions too far into the future. 

IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.

IHME released three new projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario. The most likely scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/key-coronavirus-forecast-predicts-over-410000-total-us-deaths-by-jan-1.html

sigh.

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24 minutes ago, Bob said:

I thought around 200k a few weeks ago. Will probably be 215 k

So a maximum of another 22k people are going to die? We're averaging ~1,000 deaths/day right now, and have been for almost a month and a half. 

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Just now, Bob said:

All the major population centers of the USA are approaching herd immunity with the exception of maybe some areas of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest.Not that many people live there in comparison to the Northeast and Sunbelt. Sunbelt is certainly approaching herd immunity and the Northeast has had herd immunity for quite a while. The rona will be pretty much over in about a month-two months. Book it

Okay, I'll save this one and get back to you in two months. Which will interestingly be the day after the election. I have a feeling that this is going to age as badly as @soupslam1 claiming it was all going to be over in two weeks.

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12 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Okay, I'll save this one and get back to you in two months. Which will interestingly be the day after the election. I have a feeling that this is going to age as badly as @soupslam1 claiming it was all going to be over in two weeks.

Will it age as badly as your RUSSIAN COLLUSION!!! posts?  That’s the gold standard on this board for posts that age horrifically.

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4 hours ago, Bob said:

All the major population centers of the USA are approaching herd immunity with the exception of maybe some areas of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest.Not that many people live there in comparison to the Northeast and Sunbelt. Sunbelt is certainly approaching herd immunity and the Northeast has had herd immunity for quite a while. The rona will be pretty much over in about a month-two months. Book it

Remember when everyone was berating Sweden for going herd immunity. Sweden had 5 deaths today. We had almost 1,000. The US recently surpassed them in deaths per capita. We are trending up. They are trending down. 

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2 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Remember when everyone was berating Sweden for going herd immunity. Sweden had 5 deaths today. We had almost 1,000. The US recently surpassed them in deaths per capita. We are trending up. They are trending down. 

I think it's worth mentioning that unlike us, they have leadership who encourages public safety and doesn't try to emasculate the simple common sense steps every individual is expected to take to protect themselves and others from exposure. 

I also think it's also worth pointing out that i) they never achieved herd immunity (link), and ii) that their numbers suck compared to their Scandinavian neighbors. Oh, and that their economy suffered as much as their neighboring countries who implemented more stringent lockdown policies (link).

 

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5 hours ago, NorCalCoug said:

Will it age as badly as your RUSSIAN COLLUSION!!! posts?  That’s the gold standard on this board for posts that age horrifically.

Lulwut? You mean other these these pesky little facts from the Republican-led, bipartisan report from the Senate Intelligence Committee:

  • That then-campaign chairman Paul Manafort was working with Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian intelligence officer, and sought to share internal campaign information with Kilimnik. The committee says it obtained "some information suggesting Kilimnik may have been connected" to Russia's 2016 hacking operation and concludes Manafort's role on the campaign "represented a grave counterintelligence threat."
  • That Trump and senior campaign officials sought to obtain advance information on WikiLeaks' email dumps through Roger Stone, and that Trump spoke to Stone about WikiLeaks, despite telling the special counsel in written answers he had "no recollections" that they had spoken about it.
  • That information offered at the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting "was part of a broader influence operation" from the Russian government, though there's no evidence Trump campaign members knew of it. Two of the Russians who met with Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner and Manafort had "significant connections" to the Russian government, including Russian intelligence, and Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya's ties were "far more extensive and concerning than what had been publicly known."

Link

If you ned a primer on the established connection between Wikileaks and the GRU, let me know... I can task a 10-year old to explain it to you, as pretty much every f*cking sentient being on the planet is already aware of it.

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15 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I think it's worth mentioning that unlike us, they have leadership who encourages public safety and doesn't try to emasculate the simple common sense steps every individual is expected to take to protect themselves and others from exposure. 

I also think it's also worth pointing out that i) they never achieved herd immunity (link), and ii) that their numbers suck compared to their Scandinavian neighbors. Oh, and that their economy suffered as much as their neighboring countries who implemented more stringent lockdown policies (link).

 

You can make all the deflections you want, but the simple fact is they had only 5 deaths yesterday while we had 1,000. Could it be that they approached the virus in a superior manner to how we approached it? I remember many on this board saying their approach was wrong. 

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1 minute ago, soupslam1 said:

You can make all the deflections you want, but the simple fact is they had only 5 deaths yesterday while we had 1,000. Could it be that they approached the virus in a superior manner to how we approached it? I remember many on this board saying their approach was wrong. 

"Deflections?" :blink: I think the word you're looking for is facts, ace.

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8 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

You can make all the deflections you want, but the simple fact is they had only 5 deaths yesterday while we had 1,000. Could it be that they approached the virus in a superior manner to how we approached it? I remember many on this board saying their approach was wrong. 

Sweden has 10 million people. We have 35x that.  Now of course they are still much lower by percentage but let's be fair.

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15 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I think it's worth mentioning that unlike us, they have leadership who encourages public safety and doesn't try to emasculate the simple common sense steps every individual is expected to take to protect themselves and others from exposure. 

I also think it's also worth pointing out that i) they never achieved herd immunity (link), and ii) that their numbers suck compared to their Scandinavian neighbors. Oh, and that their economy suffered as much as their neighboring countries who implemented more stringent lockdown policies (link).

 

wut. 5 is lower than 1000.  muh brane.

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

You can make all the deflections you want, but the simple fact is they had only 5 deaths yesterday while we had 1,000. Could it be that they approached the virus in a superior manner to how we approached it? I remember many on this board saying their approach was wrong. 

Maybe. I'd say the "jury is still out".

Have you already made up your mind?

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