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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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6 hours ago, modestobulldog said:

Is there a difference between exposure and infection?  Per article:

The number of people in the United States who have been infected with the coronavirus is likely to be 10 times as high as the 2.4 million confirmed cases, based on antibody tests, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

CDC Director Robert Redfield’s estimate, shared with reporters in a conference call, indicates that at least 24 million Americans have been infected so far.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger.

modestobulldog's recollection we were at about 125k deaths at June 26.  125,000 / 24,000,000 = [drum roll] 0.5%

I said I was a finance / accounting guy, science is not my strength.  I am the one highlighting the huuuuuuuuuuge 10 week breakage between daily new case count trend and daily deaths trend.

A couple things - First, yes, there is a rather remarkable difference between "exposure" and "infection." I am near 100% certain I have been exposed to the virus at some point during my shopping trips, etc., but I have not been infected as the PPE I wear and a well-defined, repeatable process has kept me from ingesting a viral load that might otherwise infect me.

Second, that .5% figure you cite is the estimated infection fatality rate (IFR), which is always going to be lower than the case fatality rate (CFR). The CFR of COVID-19 is, to date, 5%, which makes it approx. 50x deadlier than the flu's CFR of .1%. 

We see this borne out in the numbers, as the 125,000+ deaths have come despite the drastic, economy-f*cking measures we've taken to date. 125K deaths with only 5-7% of the population infected. In the absence of containment, we will have near-100% infection rate based on the transmissibility of the virus. Even without taking into consideration the lack of ICU capacity we are beginning to see in the population centers of nuthugger states, a simple linear extrapolation still produces somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million deaths in this country.

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12 hours ago, sactowndog said:

Dude.  When I talk about AZ I’m talking from front line experience.  My daughter in law has the last ICU accepting patients in AZ.   She calls it going to the morgue because so many are going to die absent a miracle including a nurse friend of hers.   When you call it fear mongering it’s a bit insulting.  

AZ had a record number of one day deaths yesterday at 88 and 4900 new cases. Working in an ICU right now would be incredibly difficult. Props to you DIL.

https://ktar.com/story/3355397/arizona-reports-record-highs-of-4878-new-coronavirus-cases-88-deaths/

 

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Governor Newsom has closed all restaurants, bars, museums, and other indoor gathering facilities for the next 3 weeks here in California for 19 counties including Fresno, Tulare, Kern, and Los Angeles. My question is if a small business was forced to close again,can they reapply for PPP loans for another 8 weeks? This is going to destroy more small businesses who followed the guidelines, but were lumped in with everyone else.  

0918_FootballVBoise(Weir)6081.jpg.91934a8a511e3532b39599f1988bbacb.jpg

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20 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

Governor Newsom has closed all restaurants, bars, museums, and other indoor gathering facilities for the next 3 weeks here in California for 19 counties including Fresno, Tulare, Kern, and Los Angeles. My question is if a small business was forced to close again,can they reapply for PPP loans for another 8 weeks? This is going to destroy more small businesses who followed the guidelines, but were lumped in with everyone else.  

There is no more ppp money for loans left. New legislation will have to be passed.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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40 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

Governor Newsom has closed all restaurants, bars, museums, and other indoor gathering facilities for the next 3 weeks here in California for 19 counties including Fresno, Tulare, Kern, and Los Angeles. My question is if a small business was forced to close again,can they reapply for PPP loans for another 8 weeks? This is going to destroy more small businesses who followed the guidelines, but were lumped in with everyone else.  

Just to clarify, in those 19 counties he fully closed bars and then the indoor portion of those other business sectors.

For example, it looks like restaurants have to close indoor dining rooms but still can offer outdoor dining or take-out. So some businesses will be impacted at different levels.

The more interesting part to me is he has created state-level strike forces to enforce the order. Teams are made up of employees from Alcohol Beverage Commission, CalOSHA, Dept of Consumer Affairs, and others along with the CHP. Since some counties have said in recent weeks they would not enforce his previous orders such as masks, it looks like he will use other state regulatory powers to enforce this one.

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9 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Just to clarify, in those 19 counties he fully closed bars and then the indoor portion of those other business sectors.

For example, it looks like restaurants have to close indoor dining rooms but still can offer outdoor dining or take-out. So some businesses will be impacted at different levels.

The more interesting part to me is he has created state-level strike forces to enforce the order. Teams are made up of employees from Alcohol Beverage Commission, CalOSHA, Dept of Consumer Affairs, and others along with the CHP. Since some counties have said in recent weeks they would not enforce his previous orders such as masks, it looks like he will use other state regulatory powers to enforce this one.

It would go a long way if he mentioned some type of financial compensation for those businesses that were forced to close even if they were following the guidelines. With indoor dining closed again that's still a lot of lost revenue compared to take-out only dining. 

0918_FootballVBoise(Weir)6081.jpg.91934a8a511e3532b39599f1988bbacb.jpg

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Arizona asked VP Pence today for an additional 500 medical workers from FEMA to assist with Coronavirus.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/01/vice-president-mike-pence-returns-arizona-covid-19-surges/3286109001/

More worrisome though may be the news that Arizona this week has given hospitals permission to activate "Crisis Care" plans if needed.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/06/29/arizona-leaders-doctors-crisis-care-standards-coronavirus/3280852001/

Crisis Care in Arizona means hospitals, if needed, can follow protocols to determine who will receive limited medical resources/treatment and who will not. The protocol provides some liability protection to health care workers and hospitals that follow their plan.

The Crisis Care plan scores patients on a number of criteria including a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score; likelihood of mortality even with medical care at 1 year, 5 years, etc; and additional factors.

Patients are then allocated either medical treatment or simply given comfort level care based on the scores.

sactowndog, I hope for your Daughter-in-law's sake that Banner doesn't have to activate their Crisis Care plan.

 

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5 hours ago, ridgeview2 said:

Governor Newsom has closed all restaurants, bars, museums, and other indoor gathering facilities for the next 3 weeks here in California for 19 counties including Fresno, Tulare, Kern, and Los Angeles. My question is if a small business was forced to close again,can they reapply for PPP loans for another 8 weeks? This is going to destroy more small businesses who followed the guidelines, but were lumped in with everyone else.  

Hey I was wrong. The ppp deadline was extended last night into August and there is still $130 billion in unused funds in the program.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/30/politics/paycheck-protection-program-extension-passes-senate/index.html

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 hour ago, bitteraztec said:

AZ ICU beds are 90% of capacity. A record 88 daily deaths and a record 4,878 new cases today.

Time for me to hit the road.  I don’t usually like to go to Stanislaus County in the summer.  But It’s 2020.

Those bed numbers are also overstated.  A number of those beds are in rural communities without the personnel to make much of a difference.  

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1 hour ago, bitteraztec said:

 AZ ICU beds are 90% of capacity. A record 88 daily deaths and a record 4,878 new cases today.

Time for me to hit the road.  I don’t usually like to go to Stanislaus County in the summer.  But It’s 2020.

It’s going to be really hard for the Docs.   Nothing is worse than watching someone die who you know, if you had resources, you could have saved.   I watched my wife dissolve in tears over a horse she had to put down because the owner had no money.   The AZ Docs, making critical decisions, are going to get hit hard.   

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28 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

Those bed numbers are also overstated.  A number of those beds are in rural communities without the personnel to make much of a difference.  

The attitude here is unreal.  A good percentage of people still not wearing masks.

23 students and 8 employees at a Boy’s School just tested positive 

 

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/us-covid-19-death-toll-may-be-28-percent-higher-than-officially-thought/ar-BB16fwpk?li=BBnb7Kz

and we just hit 50K new cases for a new daily record in the US, what a sad indictment of our country. During 911 we came together as a country and showed what we were. What has happened?

 

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