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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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21 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Friday Idaho had a spike of 100 cases from the usual 20-40 for the last six weeks. Saturday only 5 cases reported. Someone made a correction or is manipulating the reporting data. 

Could have easily been a single event that infected a bunch of people. 

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26 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I doubt it. We would have heard about it in the local news if that happened. 

Only if they have completed the contact tracing.

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The shit has hit the fan

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I think one thing that isn't being talked about enough is the devastation for many of those who survive. We have focused on the life and death numbers, but the long term illnesses resulting from this virus are what makes it so devastating. When you recover from the flu, you fully recover. But so many Covid survivors experience multiple blood clots, resulting in strokes, heart attacks (even in young people), pulmonary embolisms, and extreme fatigue, not to mention pulmonary fibrosis. Active symptoms are frequently lasting anywhere from 2-4 months, and of course may extend even longer. Of course many lucky ones are asymptomatic, and experience no long term effects. There seems to be no rhyme or reason as to whom it devastates, for those who had no underlying conditions.

And the Kawasaki like illnesses, an offshoot from this virus, that are now manifesting in small children is enough to make me consider 'retiring' from dental hygiene, as I will NOT be the one to bring this to my grandchildren, or children. And yes, I take the precautions that are available to me at work, but with hygienists having a 99.79% risk factor, the highest of all healthcare professions, I doubt that it's enough. This is not how I anticipated leaving my life long profession. It might be either that, or quit seeing my family.

While I am on the subject of dentistry, unless you have an emergency, I would not hurry back in for routine or preventive care. The aerosols created during routine dentistry, and especially 'cleanings', can hang around in the operatory for approximately 2-3 hours. So although we can thoroughly disinfect all surfaces, and limit the use of ultrasonic scalers, unless our offices have installed negative air systems, (most have not) if a patient before you had the virus, you could possibly be exposed. To put it in perspective, the HIV can survive 1 1/2 seconds without a host. So either take the first appointment of the day, or give it a few more months before rushing in unless you have to, just MAKE SURE TO FLOSS, you'll be ok for another few months (and I'm referring to routine visits, not emergencies or periodontal disease). And no, that doesn't mean to quit going to the dentist indefinitely, lol, just maybe hold off for a bit until we know more.

 

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19 hours ago, SDSUfan said:

Facts are facts. I've been following the numbers assiduously since the beginning of this nonsense, initially the South Korea and Italian numbers and they are all the same; there is basically zero risk for anyone under twenty and a risk approaching zero for anyone under the age of 40. The numbers now coming in indicate that the Kung Flu isn't all that virulent. There's a 3% infection rate here in SD among the tested population which consists of  mostly, folks  complaining to their doctors, people like my wife who are"high risk" but visit doctors for regular checkups and essential workers.  These numbers are likewise similar to most places in the world.

Anecdotally, I spoke to the manager of the Vons where I shop and he has had ZERO employees test positive.

If you're old and sick, stay home.

If you're young, fat and diabetic, stay home

let the rest of us get on with our lives.

I'm not minimizing the fact that people are dying. I'm ridiculing those who can't seem to quantify the risk and are arrogantly proclaiming that all government actions are justified by  the "science".

BE SKEPTICAL.. ALWAYS.  The experts most often, aren't.  Look at the initial models that drove us to DESTROY the economy and the lives and livelihoods of millions.  Then look at the actual data.  Try and square to two. You can't.

When’s the next time your parents or grandparents go out shopping and where?

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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41 minutes ago, Warbow said:

When’s the next time your parents or grandparents go out shopping and where?

Well, mom is 84 and in a long term care facility suffering from end stage Alzheimer's so she's not going anywhere soon.  Dad is 86 , semi-ambulatory with congestive heart failure and beginning to experience rapid cognitive decline. We've been trying to get him in a facility since March but none are open to new patients until this nonsense dies down.  My grandfather on my mom's side died in 1941 in a boating accident.  My mom's mother died in 89 from cancer. Dad's parents are dead also

None of them will be going shopping anytime soon.

Would you care to make a cogent, fact -based argument free from emotionalism to counter my points?

Maybe ask about when I plan to go shopping since I'm over 60 and someone else's father and grandfather; 1 son, 1 daughter, 3 grandsons and hopefully a grand daughter shortly.

Answer:  Yesterday, I went to Vons for food, Home Depot for some pressure treated plywood and Costco to pick up a few odds and ends.  i wore my mask because its required to enter to store but I'm also healthy, fit (4 miles/day runner), of normal body weight, have no preexisting conditions, take no medications and am fully capable of the simple math required to calculate risk.

I've also traveled to various war zones (Iraq, Afghanistan, Djibouti) roughly 20 times in the last 15 years or so as well as numerous other garden spots war zone "adjacent" so how I perceive risk is slightly different than your average grand dad.  I'll be in Saudi as soon as i can get a flight.

Next question?

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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1 hour ago, SDSUfan said:

Well, mom is 84 and in a long term care facility suffering from end stage Alzheimer's so she's not going anywhere soon.  Dad is 86 , semi-ambulatory with congestive heart failure and beginning to experience rapid cognitive decline. We've been trying to get him in a facility since March but none are open to new patients until this nonsense dies down.  My grandfather on my mom's side died in 1941 in a boating accident.  My mom's mother died in 89 from cancer. Dad's parents are dead also

None of them will be going shopping anytime soon.

Would you care to make a cogent, fact -based argument free from emotionalism to counter my points?

Maybe ask about when I plan to go shopping since I'm over 60 and someone else's father and grandfather; 1 son, 1 daughter, 3 grandsons and hopefully a grand daughter shortly.

Answer:  Yesterday, I went to Vons for food, Home Depot for some pressure treated plywood and Costco to pick up a few odds and ends.  i wore my mask because its required to enter to store but I'm also healthy, fit (4 miles/day runner), of normal body weight, have no preexisting conditions, take no medications and am fully capable of the simple math required to calculate risk.

I've also traveled to various war zones (Iraq, Afghanistan, Djibouti) roughly 20 times in the last 15 years or so as well as numerous other garden spots war zone "adjacent" so how I perceive risk is slightly different than your average grand dad.  I'll be in Saudi as soon as i can get a flight.

Next question?

Are you proud that your parents are locked up somewhere because idiots like you refuse to take the advise of medical experts? Are you in for an inheritance? 

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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43 minutes ago, Warbow said:

Are you proud that your parents are locked up somewhere because idiots like you refuse to take the advise of medical experts? Are you in for an inheritance? 

1. My parents aren't locked up. My dad is at home and my mom is where she needs to be and has been for the last 2 years or so, long predating this nonsense. Dad still gets in his car and goes where he wants, usually to Fillipi's to pick up take-out or to Albertson's for TV dinners but he usually takes his Lark there. He's not worried about catching anything or for that matter dying.  It's a perspective borne of age and experience.

2. I'm old enough to understand that most experts are promoted into being "experts" usually by bosses that are bureaucrats with little scientific background, as opposed to earning the honorific through years of focused study, research and publications. If you've followed this nonsense from the beginning you'd understand that this particular field of endeavor (epidemiology) seems to be filled less than stellar "experts".

3. I don't need an inheritance nor do any of my siblings. We are all far better off financially that our parents but yes, dad owns So Cal property as does mom ( they're divorced) totaling somewhere in the low 7 figures between them.  I'm not sure what that has to do with anything.  You watch way too much TV and should probably reduce your pakalolo intake. It's fogging your brain.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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16 hours ago, Warbow said:

Are you proud that your parents are locked up somewhere because idiots like you refuse to take the advise of medical experts? Are you in for an inheritance? 

Nursing homes and retirement centers aren't locked up because people aren't social distancing. They're locked up for other reasons. Dipshit.

Edit: It's not nice to call people names.

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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6 hours ago, Mano said:

Only if they have completed the contact tracing.

I was talking to a guy I know in the state health services department today and you were correct. Apparently a large food processing plant near Twin Falls recently reopened and they had an outbreak of 80 cases out of the 100 reported state wide. 

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5 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

I think one thing that isn't being talked about enough is the devastation for many of those who survive. We have focused on the life and death numbers, but the long term illnesses resulting from this virus are what makes it so devastating. When you recover from the flu, you fully recover. But so many Covid survivors experience multiple blood clots, resulting in strokes, heart attacks (even in young people), pulmonary embolisms, and extreme fatigue, not to mention pulmonary fibrosis. Active symptoms are frequently lasting anywhere from 2-4 months, and of course may extend even longer. Of course many lucky ones are asymptomatic, and experience no long term effects. There seems to be no rhyme or reason as to whom it devastates, for those who had no underlying conditions.

And the Kawasaki like illnesses, an offshoot from this virus, that are now manifesting in small children is enough to make me consider 'retiring' from dental hygiene, as I will NOT be the one to bring this to my grandchildren, or children. And yes, I take the precautions that are available to me at work, but with hygienists having a 99.79% risk factor, the highest of all healthcare professions, I doubt that it's enough. This is not how I anticipated leaving my life long profession. It might be either that, or quit seeing my family.

While I am on the subject of dentistry, unless you have an emergency, I would not hurry back in for routine or preventive care. The aerosols created during routine dentistry, and especially 'cleanings', can hang around in the operatory for approximately 2-3 hours. So although we can thoroughly disinfect all surfaces, and limit the use of ultrasonic scalers, unless our offices have installed negative air systems, (most have not) if a patient before you had the virus, you could possibly be exposed. To put it in perspective, the HIV can survive 1 1/2 seconds without a host. So either take the first appointment of the day, or give it a few more months before rushing in unless you have to, just MAKE SURE TO FLOSS, you'll be ok for another few months (and I'm referring to routine visits, not emergencies or periodontal disease). And no, that doesn't mean to quit going to the dentist indefinitely, lol, just maybe hold off for a bit until we know more.

 

Thank you for the dentistry advice.  Seriously. 

My right upper side hurts from time to time. I think it may be to me unknowingly clinching my teeth ( from stress or whatever ), but I was considering getting them checked out in case it was something more serious.  

But, after reading your post, i'll bypass putting a dentist in a (probably) awkward postion.  I can deal with the occasional pain. 

Thanks again. 

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9 minutes ago, DestinFlPackfan said:

Thank you for the dentistry advice.  Seriously. 

My right upper side hurts from time to time. I think it may be to me unknowingly clinching my teeth ( from stress or whatever ), but I was considering getting them checked out in case it was something more serious.  

But, after reading your post, i'll bypass putting a dentist in a (probably) awkward postion.  I can deal with the occasional pain. 

Thanks again. 

No you should go get it checked out. Find out what's wrong, it may be a simple fix like a nightguard, or a simple procedure such as a filling. Like I said, I would just try to book the first appointment of the day. I just wouldn't have any elective procedures done right now, but I didn't mean to suggest you should continue in pain. I'm sorry. Definitely don't do that, because what might be a simple thing now could become a much bigger issue later.

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10 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Friday Idaho had a spike of 100 cases from the usual 20-40 for the last six weeks. Saturday only 5 cases reported. Someone made a correction or is manipulating the reporting data. 

Batch processing of tests?

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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On 5/24/2020 at 6:43 PM, SDSUfan said:

Facts are facts. I've been following the numbers assiduously since the beginning of this nonsense, initially the South Korea and Italian numbers and they are all the same; there is basically zero risk for anyone under twenty and a risk approaching zero for anyone under the age of 40. The numbers now coming in indicate that the Kung Flu isn't all that virulent. There's a 3% infection rate here in SD among the tested population which consists of  mostly, folks  complaining to their doctors, people like my wife who are"high risk" but visit doctors for regular checkups and essential workers.  These numbers are likewise similar to most places in the world.

Anecdotally, I spoke to the manager of the Vons where I shop and he has had ZERO employees test positive.

If you're old and sick, stay home.

If you're young, fat and diabetic, stay home

let the rest of us get on with our lives.

I'm not minimizing the fact that people are dying. I'm ridiculing those who can't seem to quantify the risk and are arrogantly proclaiming that all government actions are justified by  the "science".

BE SKEPTICAL.. ALWAYS.  The experts most often, aren't.  Look at the initial models that drove us to DESTROY the economy and the lives and livelihoods of millions.  Then look at the actual data.  Try and square to two. You can't.

I can.

The latest estimate (not the CDC's distilled single estimate but the ranges found in the latest studies) for the infection fatality rates based on antibody testing in Europe ranges from approx. .6%-1.3%. The transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 has been measured. In the absence of the shitdown we trend towards infection rates of 70%-90%. In the absence of mitigation we will still realize 200+ million infections. A 1% IFR would result in 2.2-3 million deaths, just as the models originally forecasted.

And with a huge spike in the epi curve, this would translate to a peak of 30,000 deaths a day or more. What, pray tell, do you think happens to markets under that scenario?

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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30 minutes ago, 4UNLV said:

No you should go get it checked out. Find out what's wrong, it may be a simple fix like a nightguard, or a simple procedure such as a filling. Like I said, I would just try to book the first appointment of the day. I just wouldn't have any elective procedures done right now, but I didn't mean to suggest you should continue in pain. I'm sorry. Definitely don't do that, because what might be a simple thing now could become a much bigger issue later.

I appreciate your response.  And no , you definitely didn't suggest I should continue in pain. I'll take your advise and find a dentist. Your reasoning on something that now may be 'intermittent 'that could be a sign of potentially bigger issues makes total sense. 

Thanks again. 

 

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I can.

The latest estimate (not the CDC's distilled single estimate but the ranges found in the latest studies) for the infection fatality rates based on antibody testing in Europe ranges from approx. .6%-1.3%. The transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 has been measured. In the absence of the shitdown we trend towards infection rates of 70%-90%. In the absence of mitigation we will still realize 200+ million infections. A 1% IFR would result in 2.2-3 million deaths, just as the models originally forecasted.

And with a huge spike in the epi curve, this would translate to a peak of 30,000 deaths a day or more. What, pray tell, do you think happens to markets under that scenario?

 

image.png.ea290bc29337e48163036622426e3a17.png

 

There's zero evidence nor was there ever a claim the "shutdown"  will mitigate the overall infection rate. It was sold as a way to slow the inevitable. Now, it's being sold as a way to contain the disease which is flat out untrue. Please explain how you think we'll get from the data above to 90%.  The number decreases as the tested population increases.

 

 

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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34 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

image.png.ea290bc29337e48163036622426e3a17.png

 

There's zero evidence nor was there ever a claim the "shutdown"  will mitigate the overall infection rate. It was sold as a way to slow the inevitable. Now, it's being sold as a way to contain the disease which is flat out untrue. Please explain how you think we'll get from the data above to 90%.  The number decreases as the tested population increases.

Even over a long enough timeline this is only partially true. A slow bake to herd immunity would result in a lower overall infection rate as the susceptible population would not be large enough to sustain transmission. Furthermore, suppression allows immunologists the head start on making a vaccine.

And there's value in slowing the inevitable. People wouldn't be in much of a partying mood in Missouri or anywhere if there had been a million deaths over the last two months as opposed to 100,000.

Or... are you making the argument that there is no evidence that the mitigation measures resulted in the decline in new postitives over the time they've been in effect (and as reflected in your chart above)? Because I'll happily post several links that will show how mistaken you would be.

The measured R0 of this virus is 2.5 and the measured secondary attack rate is 83%. In the absence of mitigation, the entire population is susceptible to infection and everybody who comes into contact with anybody will become infected eventually. Social distancing, the use of masks, and all the preventative steps suggested by the CDC will bring that number down. 

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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The attack on science the last few years is so bizarre to me. 97 percent of scientists have dedicated their lives to lying to you about global warming, coronavirus, 5g, etc..

 

Or the 3 percent may have been paid by those who stand to lose profit if action is taken to correct these problems.

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