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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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17 hours ago, mysfit said:

As for the whole reopen argument

 

Fauci's recommendations are based on data, on facts and on decades of experience.

Trump really doesn't know sh*t about it, he just wants things back open, to hell with the preventable deaths and disabilities. He's fixated on it only kills old people and they're expendable.

That assertion is wrong. We are seeing serious illness and deaths across all ages including children. NO ONE is expendable. The lack of morality and humanity is mind boggling at this point. 

 

Hands up for who wants to volunteer themselves, their family and their friends so we can open an economy that 1 really only benefits the 5% and 2 the uncontrolled tsunami that will hit our health care providers when this goes out of control again.

 

You will not have a viable economy until there is a plan and science based decisions on the when and how of this.

Data is a fluid entity hence the changes in Fauci's stance on masks and the severity of the pandemic. Decades of experience means little since this is a novel virus. He's a great spokesperson but I agree with Rand Paul that his opinions aren't the end all and shouldn't be the sole determinant in policy as the science and data change from day to day. Obviously the epidemiologist have much to add to the equation but there are many more factors with regard to the  health of the population than just this virus. Opening the economy affects way more than the 5 percent considering 36 million people have been laid off and likely will continue to increase over the next few months not to mention the major hit to retirement accounts and retirement pensions for all our seniors.

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Let me put it another way

Everyone has likely heard that a number of meatpacking plants shut down because of high numbers of workers contracting COVID-19. 

Which led to talks of shortages so the small fingered vulgarian labeled it a necessary to security function.

Of course that doesn't matter if more and more workers become I'll and simply cannot work.

Now scale that out across all of society and ask how long we can function. Around 0.7% have antibodies, and it has yet to be determined at what level if any that provides immunity. This bug is highly contagious. It won't take long to overwhelm healthcare and deplete the workforce.

How well is an already damaged economy going to recover?

It isn't either/or

It is one requires the other. A healthy economy requires healthy people.

The numbers have come down thanks to isolating. We end the isolation without adequate testing and tracing and we turn that curve right back to a steep climb.

One of the Final Five..........

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1 hour ago, NMpackalum said:

Data is a fluid entity hence the changes in Fauci's stance on masks and the severity of the pandemic. Decades of experience means little since this is a novel virus. He's a great spokesperson but I agree with Rand Paul that his opinions aren't the end all and shouldn't be the sole determinant in policy as the science and data change from day to day. Obviously the epidemiologist have much to add to the equation but there are many more factors with regard to the  health of the population than just this virus. Opening the economy affects way more than the 5 percent considering 36 million people have been laid off and likely will continue to increase over the next few months not to mention the major hit to retirement accounts and retirement pensions for all our seniors.

Fauci simply gives his educated opinion and recommendation based on 50+ years as a doctor and health professional. Is there anyone more qualified from a health perspective than him? NO

Is he the end all for things economic? NO  Has he ever claimed to be? Not that I've ever heard.

The problem is this administration is scared as f**k when someone tells it like it is. How many dozens of people have been fired by Trump simply because they had a differing opinion. We've witnessed it nearly every month during in his administration. Good leaders surround themselves with people who aren't afraid to disagree with them. Instead we have a child in office who is in constant need of his ego being stroked.

At some point Fauci will either get fired or god forbid some nut job will take him out (they've already had to beef up his security). Fortunately, Trump hasn't canned him yet.

Fauci has to tip toe around this administration because he doesn't have the tools he needs. If we had massive testing we could actually see where we stand and what the risks are. We don't have the testing to do that, and probably never will.  How awesome would it be if college football players had the ability to be tested daily. We could open up Summer camps tomorrow if that were the case.

 

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3 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

some potential good news

 

And the sun will come up tomorrow, brilliant. I've been saying for weeks, this social distancing outdoors is crap. But there should be no restrictions outside, no requirement to wear masks. No restrictions on where people go, or what they do outdoors as related to current virus related prohibitions.

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11 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

Fauci simply gives his educated opinion and recommendation based on 50+ years as a doctor and health professional. Is there anyone more qualified from a health perspective than him? NO

Is he the end all for things economic? NO  Has he ever claimed to be? Not that I've ever heard.

The problem is this administration is scared as f**k when someone tells it like it is. How many dozens of people have been fired by Trump simply because they had a differing opinion. We've witnessed it nearly every month during in his administration. Good leaders surround themselves with people who aren't afraid to disagree with them. Instead we have a child in office who is in constant need of his ego being stroked.

At some point Fauci will either get fired or god forbid some nut job will take him out (they've already had to beef up his security). Fortunately, Trump hasn't canned him yet.

Fauci has to tip toe around this administration because he doesn't have the tools he needs. If we had massive testing we could actually see where we stand and what the risks are. We don't have the testing to do that, and probably never will.  How awesome would it be if college football players had the ability to be tested daily. We could open up Summer camps tomorrow if that were the case.

 

I don't disagree. Faucci is as qualified a person that there is. He's never claimed it but the anti Trumpers certainly use him as the definitive alternative voice to Trump.  Trump may be all those things you and others say but it's ridiculous to say that they aren't doing their best they can within the limitations. Trump is his own worse enemy when he opens his mouth with his claims. Testing kits are readily available now, too bad we can't get the swabs to use the kits. This is going to be with us for a long time. I'm not holding my breath for an effective vaccine for the next couple of years if ever, considering the fastest vaccine development to date is 4 years and we've never been able to develop a vaccine for other corona viruses. We've better be able to figure out how to live with it until herd immunity decreases the prevalence.

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On 5/13/2020 at 12:06 PM, modestobulldog said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am not following your logic. I asked the question if not wearing a mask was the equivalent of murder. It seems like in this dialogue, you are stating that it is the equivalent of being a murderer, rapist, or drug dealer.

Jeebus. lighten up a bit, will ya? You and Bob have been inching toward the cliff on this issue and now almost have one foot over it. (Don't know why the software didn't pick up all the rest of your post. Whatever.)

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38 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

And the sun will come up tomorrow, brilliant. I've been saying for weeks, this social distancing outdoors is crap. But there should be no restrictions outside, no requirement to wear masks. No restrictions on where people go, or what they do outdoors as related to current virus related prohibitions.

this is exactly why we have more cases than all of Europe combined, because we have a select few Americans who are dumb as f*#k that will ruin it for everyone else.

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2 hours ago, mysfit said:

Let me put it another way

Everyone has likely heard that a number of meatpacking plants shut down because of high numbers of workers contracting COVID-19. 

Which led to talks of shortages so the small fingered vulgarian labeled it a necessary to security function.

Of course that doesn't matter if more and more workers become I'll and simply cannot work.

Now scale that out across all of society and ask how long we can function. Around 0.7% have antibodies, and it has yet to be determined at what level if any that provides immunity. This bug is highly contagious. It won't take long to overwhelm healthcare and deplete the workforce.

How well is an already damaged economy going to recover?

It isn't either/or

It is one requires the other. A healthy economy requires healthy people.

The numbers have come down thanks to isolating. We end the isolation without adequate testing and tracing and we turn that curve right back to a steep climb.

Does nobody ever recover from this illness in your “sky is falling” take?  

v0icAvfW.jpg

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2 hours ago, mysfit said:

Let me put it another way

Everyone has likely heard that a number of meatpacking plants shut down because of high numbers of workers contracting COVID-19. 

Which led to talks of shortages so the small fingered vulgarian labeled it a necessary to security function.

Of course that doesn't matter if more and more workers become I'll and simply cannot work.

Now scale that out across all of society and ask how long we can function. Around 0.7% have antibodies, and it has yet to be determined at what level if any that provides immunity. This bug is highly contagious. It won't take long to overwhelm healthcare and deplete the workforce.

How well is an already damaged economy going to recover?

It isn't either/or

It is one requires the other. A healthy economy requires healthy people.

The numbers have come down thanks to isolating. We end the isolation without adequate testing and tracing and we turn that curve right back to a steep climb.

A couple of things here. 

-Americans as a population and workforce are probably the most unhealthy/sickest group in any modern economy. Yet the American economy is the largest in the world. Go figure. 

-The overwhelming majority of people that get sick from COVID will recover without being hospitalized. We don't have good enough data to say the exact number, but I'd guess fewer than 1% of people that get COVID require a hospital bed at any point

-Each percentage point the unemployment rate rises, roughly 40,000 people die. Your lack of morality and humanity is mind boggling at this point. We should care deeply about the unemployed losing/taking their own lives, which is what an extended lockdown causes.

-I do agree we need better testing, but we can't continue to burn down our economy, the costs are too high

https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/96th Congress/The Social Costs of Unemployment (982).pdf

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p03kpvk2

 

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There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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7 hours ago, NorCalCoug said:

Does nobody ever recover from this illness in your “sky is falling” take?  

That can't be a serious question so I'm not going to bother answering it.

One of the Final Five..........

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10 hours ago, NMpackalum said:

Data is a fluid entity hence the changes in Fauci's stance on masks and the severity of the pandemic. Decades of experience means little since this is a novel virus. He's a great spokesperson but I agree with Rand Paul that his opinions aren't the end all and shouldn't be the sole determinant in policy as the science and data change from day to day. Obviously the epidemiologist have much to add to the equation but there are many more factors with regard to the  health of the population than just this virus. Opening the economy affects way more than the 5 percent considering 36 million people have been laid off and likely will continue to increase over the next few months not to mention the major hit to retirement accounts and retirement pensions for all our seniors.

My point there is that the economy we have really only benefits the top 5%.

The rest, 95% of us get screwed over. Stagnant wages, non living wages, many don't get health care.

The top 5% benefit and the rest of us are exploited for their benefit.

My point is, the current economy and how it works sucks badly. The widening inequality of income. Why should we risk lives to open that shit back up?

Fix it si it benefits most people. I know, pretty radical notion. But that's what I meant with the 5%.

One of the Final Five..........

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30 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

welp, we haven't seen many reinfected so maybe this is just a strange anomaly

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-13/coronavirus-test-second-infection-hospital

Pretty concerning.  May be just a testing accuracy issue of some sort, or it may be a twist in the behavior of the virus.  We are learning new stuff every day about this thing.

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I've heard of a few people claiming reinfection.

It has not been demonstrated that there is immunity after a bout.

It could also be different strains and you don't get cross immunity.

We still have so much to learn about this bug. And it's the worst kind, a stealthy little  monster. People are more afraid of ebola but IMO this critter is worse.

Ebola kills it's host before it can get very far and it's rapidly apparent there is a health issue. This coronavirus sits there contagious and  multiplying without symptoms for days.

One of the Final Five..........

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8 hours ago, CV147 said:

It really looks like we're on the down slope, if you look at daily detected cases in the United States.

Keep in mind, this is with increased testing capacity.

 

 

 

Screenshot_2020-05-14 Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV)(1).png

Since we are testing a lot more people than we did several weeks ago, yet seeing less positive cases, the above curve is even more hopeful. 

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1 hour ago, Del Scorcho said:

welp, we haven't seen many reinfected so maybe this is just a strange anomaly

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-13/coronavirus-test-second-infection-hospital

The So Koreans ran into a similar anomaly a couple of weeks ago and attributed it to testing issues.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html

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