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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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56 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

A couple thoughts - the first being aI wholly agree with your (highlighted) statement above, full stop.

Second, we do not know - at least in this country - that the consequences of shutdowns will "cause more death and suffering" than the pandemic itself. There was a study published last month (I'll have to go hunt for it) that measured the bounce-back (and net increase) in manufacturing within just a year (1920) following the last global pandemic of this magnitude (Spanish Flu), which experienced a 2% net growth by the end of 2020. Similar shutdowns occurred within the (population centers of the) United States in 1918 and 1919.

In addition, if we had not taken the drastic steps we did to flatten the curve, we likely would have experienced a similar economic contraction had the worst-case scenarios borne fruit (as all indications are they would have). 30K-50K American deaths each day likely would have resulted in another 40% drop in the market from last month's lows and the subsequent contractions and liquidity crisis would in all likelihood be worse than what we're staring at now. Not to mention we'd most likely see all the same measures to "flatten the curve" as we already have, but just more reactively (and with more lives lost and less to gain).

If you think the "save them at all costs" voices are loud enough to drown out debate now, imagine how loudly they'd resonate with 20x the number of daily deaths we're experiencing at present.

Maybe, if the worst case scenarios had happened, which seem really unlikely based on what we know now.  Still, it would have to be a major health catastrophe to throw 40+ million people out of work.  I know we are not there yet, but some of our biggest states are extending lock downs through May.  There was an estimate of nearly a 5% GDP contraction in Q1, which I think will end up being much higher.  Q2 will be far worse.  And of course we have the trillions and trillions of dollars added to the debt.  I no longer buy the argument that the economy would have tanked just as much.  Regardless of the arguments for or against our path, it has come with an enormous cost with so many 0s that it is hard to even grasp.

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3 hours ago, modestobulldog said:

Gavin Newsom steps on the turd. The guy is making a colossal mistake as regards to the Orange County beaches. any idiot knows those pictures taken at the angle probably on a small bluff are going to exaggerate the crowdedness of the beach. There was like 80,000 people that went to the beach over two days, and the beaches probably 15 or 20 miles long. There are reports that overhead pictures showed plenty of social distancing. What an a******.

Relevance of Buffalo Springfield relevant once again.

 

I’m not sure OC youth are the hill you want to die on.   Yes getting outside is good, yes it’s okay to open beaches and such with appropriate social distancing.  But we read plenty of quotes from those yahoos.  You have real arguments about why and where we need to loosen.  Self entitled brats talking about their rights to go to the beach isn’t your best argument.

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1 hour ago, sactowndog said:

 it’s okay to open beaches and such with appropriate social distancing.  

No one can open a beach. They can only close a beach. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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3 hours ago, renoskier said:

This might not be true even if there is herd immunity. Too soon to say.

What we can say is that most of the developed countries of the world are taking an approach similar to ours, and in some cases a much stronger approach.

Looks like you can’t catch COVID twice:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/scientists-conclude-people-cannot-get-coronavirus-twice/ar-BB13tm64

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13 minutes ago, BSUTOP25 said:

I want to look at a primary source first, but if this is true it's excellent news especially once an immunization is developed.

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1 hour ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Well...a friend who has intimate knowledge of the matter informed me that you can catch the Corona twice.  It's just that it's then called Dos Equis.

Rimshot - Ba dum tssshhh - YouTube

Yes, I know how bad that was.

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9 hours ago, sactowndog said:

I’m not sure OC youth are the hill you want to die on.   Yes getting outside is good, yes it’s okay to open beaches and such with appropriate social distancing.  But we read plenty of quotes from those yahoos.  You have real arguments about why and where we need to loosen.  Self entitled brats talking about their rights to go to the beach isn’t your best argument.

The beach is one of the most enjoyable, yet least risky places to go. Phuck Newsom.

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8 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

Not if you are packed in closely.  Your teams and shit attitude is conflicting with your common sense. 

The Times photo was misleading (Telephoto lens from a distance).  The accounts It isn't teams and shit, it is common sense.  The sheriff disagrees with Newsom, social distancing was working.  The pictures (Newsom's images) were misleading.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/30/newsom-closes-all-orange-county-beaches-despite-growing-political-backlash-1281581

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17 hours ago, modestobulldog said:

The Times photo was misleading (Telephoto lens from a distance).  The accounts It isn't teams and shit, it is common sense.  The sheriff disagrees with Newsom, social distancing was working.  The pictures (Newsom's images) were misleading.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/30/newsom-closes-all-orange-county-beaches-despite-growing-political-backlash-1281581

What’s the camera trick here?

 

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