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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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3 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

The latest positive case and death curves have flattened, but still at high numbers, about 25,000- 30,000 positive cases per day and 1,500-2,000 deaths per day. I’ve been watching these numbers every day and they don’t appear to be going down. And that is with most people sheltering. 

What are we going to do if those numbers don’t go down, continue at the same rates, or start going up higher as should be expected as people come out of their caves?

We should implement Sweden response.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world-health-organization-praises-sweden-for-coronavirus-response-resisting-shutdowns

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

 

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1 hour ago, sean327 said:

Maybe I did, but others are making the argument that worrying about the economy is wrong. I may have gone off half cocked on this one, but there are others who don’t want to hear anything but their side of the argument.

I think there is a rather distinct line between prioritizing life over the economy and staking one's tent in the "the economy doesn't matter" camp. It's like the difference between being pro-choice and being pro-abortion. :shrug: 

What would happen to the economy if 30K-50K Americans were dying each day instead of 2K? Because that's the likely scenario in the absence of mitigation. 

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24 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

The latest positive case and death curves have flattened, but still at high numbers, about 25,000- 30,000 positive cases per day and 1,500-2,000 deaths per day. I’ve been watching these numbers every day and they don’t appear to be going down. And that is with most people sheltering. 

What are we going to do if those numbers don’t go down, continue at the same rates, or start going up higher as should be expected as people come out of their caves?

Flattening the curve means lengthening it.  This is EXACTLY what we hopped would happen, best case scenario.  Too bad we are going to say +++++ it, end social distancing, it will remain flat through the summer due to temperature and humidity, it will ramp up in the fall and we likely see the death rate double or triple in the fall-winter, no lock down goes into place because people will not do it a second time, consumers out of fear will refuse to consume, half the country will blame the death and destruction on the other half, that half will say they did what was best for the majority and old people dying is better than people starving.  The divide will further widen in the country, the economy will be worse off than had we gone with a shelter in-shelter off policy, by far and the rest of the world will laugh/cry watching it.

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10 hours ago, DoubleBlueGold said:

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Who is this edm christy mack and why should I care what the hell she thinks or says?

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5 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

The latest positive case and death curves have flattened, but still at high numbers, about 25,000- 30,000 positive cases per day and 1,500-2,000 deaths per day. I’ve been watching these numbers every day and they don’t appear to be going down. And that is with most people sheltering. 

What are we going to do if those numbers don’t go down, continue at the same rates, or start going up higher as should be expected as people come out of their caves?

Those numbers will go down provided people continue to implement measures to break transmission chains (read: social distance, wear a mask, etc.). 

Remember - flattening the curve was an objective, not the goal in and of itself; flattening the curve simply means we're controlling the rate of infection (and thus transmission).

IMO a better perspective for gauging the state of the pandemic is to view the respective epidemic curves for each state. Here's a snapshot from CNN's tracking page:

Screen-Shot-2020-05-01-at-10-11-54-AM.pn

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6 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Flattening the curve means lengthening it.  This is EXACTLY what we hopped would happen, best case scenario.  Too bad we are going to say +++++ it, end social distancing, it will remain flat through the summer due to temperature and humidity, it will ramp up in the fall and we likely see the death rate double or triple in the fall-winter, no lock down goes into place because people will not do it a second time, consumers out of fear will refuse to consume, half the country will blame the death and destruction on the other half, that half will say they did what was best for the majority and old people dying is better than people starving.  The divide will further widen in the country, the economy will be worse off than had we not gone with a shelter in-shelter off policy, by far and the rest of the world will laugh/cry watching it.

But other than that how was the play, Mrs .Lincoln? 

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13 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

1. Will we accept the much higher death rate that Sweden is experiencing?

2. Is there any demonstrated proof of "herd immunity" with Covid-19?

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18 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I think there is a rather distinct line between prioritizing life over the economy and staking one's tent in the "the economy doesn't matter" camp. It's like the difference between being pro-choice and being pro-abortion. :shrug: 

What would happen to the economy if 30K-50K Americans were dying each day instead of 2K? Because that's the likely scenario in the absence of mitigation. 

There isn’t though. The coming economic disaster is going to cause more death and suffering than the virus. Suppressing that opinion is dangerous and irresponsible. Both concerns should and need to be voiced without anyone shouting them down. That’s all I’m trying to say here. There are very valid argument on both sides.

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11 minutes ago, renoskier said:

1. Will we accept the much higher death rate that Sweden is experiencing?

2. Is there any demonstrated proof of "herd immunity" with Covid-19?

1) We are likely going to end up there anyway just over a longer period of time

2) If there is no herd immunity we are all going to be phucked in any regard. If there is herd immunity Sweden has taken the better approach and suffered less damage to their economy. 

Look at the positive. You can still blame it on Trump no matter what happens.

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20 minutes ago, sean327 said:

There isn’t though. The coming economic disaster is going to cause more death and suffering than the virus. Suppressing that opinion is dangerous and irresponsible. Both concerns should and need to be voiced without anyone shouting them down. That’s all I’m trying to say here. There are very valid argument on both sides.

A couple thoughts - the first being aI wholly agree with your (highlighted) statement above, full stop.

Second, we do not know - at least in this country - that the consequences of shutdowns will "cause more death and suffering" than the pandemic itself. There was a study published last month (I'll have to go hunt for it) that measured the bounce-back (and net increase) in manufacturing within just a year (1920) following the last global pandemic of this magnitude (Spanish Flu), which experienced a 2% net growth by the end of 2020. Similar shutdowns occurred within the (population centers of the) United States in 1918 and 1919.

In addition, if we had not taken the drastic steps we did to flatten the curve, we likely would have experienced a similar economic contraction had the worst-case scenarios borne fruit (as all indications are they would have). 30K-50K American deaths each day likely would have resulted in another 40% drop in the market from last month's lows and the subsequent contractions and liquidity crisis would in all likelihood be worse than what we're staring at now. Not to mention we'd most likely see all the same measures to "flatten the curve" as we already have, but just more reactively (and with more lives lost and less to gain).

If you think the "save them at all costs" voices are loud enough to drown out debate now, imagine how loudly they'd resonate with 20x the number of daily deaths we're experiencing at present.

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1 hour ago, modestobulldog said:

Gavin Newsom steps on the turd. The guy is making a colossal mistake as regards to the Orange County beaches. any idiot knows those pictures taken at the angle probably on a small bluff are going to exaggerate the crowdedness of the beach. There was like 80,000 people that went to the beach over two days, and the beaches probably 15 or 20 miles long. There are reports that overhead pictures showed plenty of social distancing. What an a******.

The drone shots do show social distancing on the beaches.

But I think it may have as much to do with the beach being an attraction that causes people to not social distance elsewhere nearby.

I don't know what the sidewalks and retail looked like next to the Orange County beaches.

But I saw this photo from last weekend in Pismo Beach. The link is a photo of people waiting in line for clam chowder at Splash Cafe, one block from the beach in Pismo. No social distancing and no masks. You can see from the buildings there is no telephoto lens compression of the distance. City police had to respond to ask people to spread out on the sidewalk.

https://www.sanluisobispo.com/latest-news/wclecy/picture242300376/alternates/FREE_768/Pismo Beach Crowds122

 

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17 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

1) We are likely going to end up there anyway just over a longer period of time

2) If there is no herd immunity we are all going to be phucked in any regard. If there is herd immunity Sweden has taken the better approach and suffered less damage to their economy. 

Look at the positive. You can still blame it on Trump no matter what happens.

Incorrect. All the modeling has shown - which has been validated by real-world observations - the direct correlation (and causal relationship) between "flattening the curve" and reducing the number of fatalities.

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5 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

She certainly isn't the real Christy Mack, so I care even less what she says.  :D

I guess I’m old and out of touch. Lol

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23 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

The drone shots do show social distancing on the beaches.

But I think it may have as much to do with the beach being an attraction that causes people to not social distance elsewhere nearby.

I don't know what the sidewalks and retail looked like next to the Orange County beaches.

But I saw this photo from last weekend in Pismo Beach. The link is a photo of people waiting in line for clam chowder at Splash Cafe, one block from the beach in Pismo. No social distancing and no masks. You can see from the buildings there is no telephoto lens compression of the distance. City police had to respond to ask people to spread out on the sidewalk.

 

The issue presented in that photo could be partly mitigated by SLO County by requiring people wear masks when in public and within 6' of individuals to whom they are not related, as is now required in San Diego County.

 

BTW, this photo is why we do not deserve nice things.

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47 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

Well first, I thought WHO was now considered an organization with bad information. But they are right about Sweden? :hmmm::D

But additionally there are also many cultural differences. People in Sweden put more trust in each other and institutions. They also listen to government recommendations. For example, there is no mandatory childhood vaccination law in Sweden yet 97% of children receive vaccinations vs a lower percentage in the US.

 

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36 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

1) We are likely going to end up there anyway just over a longer period of time

2) If there is no herd immunity we are all going to be phucked in any regard. If there is herd immunity Sweden has taken the better approach and suffered less damage to their economy. 

Look at the positive. You can still blame it on Trump no matter what happens.

This might not be true even if there is herd immunity. Too soon to say.

What we can say is that most of the developed countries of the world are taking an approach similar to ours, and in some cases a much stronger approach.

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People need to get out of the "It's either the economy or piles of dead bodies" mindset. It seems perfectly possible to open up the economy at a rate that prevents the worst economic disaster scenarios while still keeping people reasonably safe. Everybody with a pulse in the government should be working on acquiring protective equipment and drafting rules that ensure reasonably safe workplaces. No one is asking for perfect safety. But sending people back into unsafe conditions to "save the economy" is BS, and I hope people won't accept it. 

We all keep yammering about how much we value our workers, how they are the best in the world, bla, bla, bla. Well, maybe we should not force them to choose between (both physically and financially) unsafe work conditions and no income at all. We need: 

  • Federally mandated sick leave
  • Federally mandated vacation days (because no one in their right mind takes their PTO to be sick at home)
  • Free-of-charge medical care for anything remotely COVID-related (I'd suggest free basic health care, but well... let's be realistic)
  • Government assistance for those who've had their hours cut
  • An epic, massive crap ton of protective gear, tests, temperature sensors, etc. at every damn workplace in the country. 

I do agree with the Admin that some sort of liability protection is required for businesses, but only if adequate measures are in place and enforced. 

If we are serious about saving the economy and businesses while also protecting America's workforce, this is a no brainer. Because it's going to be a whole lot cheaper than running the country into the ground. 

Akkula did not pay me for this post.

 

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40 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Incorrect. All the modeling has shown - which has been validated by real-world observations - the direct correlation (and causal relationship) between "flattening the curve" and reducing the number of fatalities.

Incorrect. This hasn’t all played out yet. 

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13 minutes ago, I am Ram said:

People need to get out of the "It's either the economy or piles of dead bodies" mindset. It seems perfectly possible to open up the economy at a rate that prevents the worst economic disaster scenarios while still keeping people reasonably safe. Everybody with a pulse in the government should be working on acquiring protective equipment and drafting rules that ensure reasonably safe workplaces. No one is asking for perfect safety. But sending people back into unsafe conditions to "save the economy" is BS, and I hope people won't accept it. 

We all keep yammering about how much we value our workers, how they are the best in the world, bla, bla, bla. Well, maybe we should not force them them to choose between (both physically and financially) unsafe work conditions and no income at all. We need: 

  • Federally mandated sick leave
  • Federally mandated vacation days (because no one in their right mind takes their PTO to be sick at home)
  • Free-of-charge medical care for anything remotely COVID-related (I'd suggest free basic health care, but well... let's be realistic)
  • Government assistance for those who've had their hours cut
  • An epic, massive crap ton of protective gear, tests, temperature sensors, etc. at every damn workplace in the country. 

I do agree with the Admin that some sort of liability protection is required for businesses, but only if adequate measures are in place and enforced. 

If we are serious about saving the economy and businesses while also protecting America's workforce, this is a no brainer. Because it's going to be a whole lot cheaper than running the country into the ground. 

Akkula did not pay me for this post.

 

This is one of the more rational posts Ive seen on this board since the virus was unleashed on all of us. 

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