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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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16 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

Mortality rates with Covid are probably impossible to state with any certainty.  Flu has been around for a long time and they likely have a handle on estimating cases.  Who knows for Covid?

 

7 minutes ago, qwelish said:

Do you actually think that flu mortality rates are based on testing 100% of all cases of influenza? Do you know how an extrapolation works? I can't believe what I am reading here. Testing 100% of a cases or of a populace is 100% impossible. Wow!

ex·tra·po·la·tion
/ikˌstrapəˈlāSH(ə)n/
 
noun
 
  1. the action of estimating or concluding something by assuming that existing trends will continue or a current method will remain applicable.
    "sizes were estimated by extrapolation"
    • MATHEMATICS
      the extension of a graph, curve, or range of values by inferring unknown values from trends in the known data.
      "extrapolation of the logarithmic curve yielded an estimate of 66 species"

Reading comprehension for the win.

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1 minute ago, BYUcougfan said:

There are lots of doctors weighing in on this.  I live in Utah and I think we should start opening up.

People are talking about the experts and we should listen to them.  However, risk experts will always see risk.  You don't let the credit risk experts at a bank have the final say because you would never loan any money.  You don't let the legal risk experts (lawyers) make the final decision in business or you would never do anything new.  I don't think we can let the health risk experts make our final decisions with this.  They will never see a time when there is no Covid risk.....because this thing is not going away.

I do know that we can't shelter in our homes for months on end.  Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny don't pay the bills in America....commerce does.  When we open up, infections will increase.  Too many people feel the sacrifices they have made should result in the virus going away.  That is not the case and never was going to be the case.

I agree with much of what you have said. But taking in and factoring the information in a reconciliatory fashion is not letting experts have the final say. It's just that you cannot reconcile the information if you do not take it in.

 

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Flu has multiple vaccines, covid has the shutdown. Two massive variables which make direct comparisons very difficult. We can probably extrapolate # of flu cases much more accurately than # of covid right now. We really don't know how many people had covid. To early to go the the mat defending any side of a comparison between the two.

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37 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

So wait a second? If somebody with no medical training finds Internet doctor who agrees with his point, that trumps all others with no medical training who follow the advice of even more medical experts? These are very strange times.

Those who can't debate or argue their positions are the ones most often to appeal to authority.

I bet I can a few scientists with 3 minutes on google who would state man does not contribute to climate change.

I know geographers on my flat earth society forum that believe the world to be flat.

 

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1 hour ago, qwelish said:

 

You reply to a 50 minute video in under 10 minutes?

If you don't need data to make your conclusions, then you are espousing dogma, not science. 

Your mind is clearly made up. 

By the way, WHAT ARE YOUR CREDENTIALS again?

Apparently, so is yours.

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Not shocking that this has been floating around for nearly a week, yet no one has managed to post it here. Would anyone like to pit their credentials against these two Doctors? These two Doctors are saying EXACTLY THE SAME THING as me and a few others here, who have been trying to get through to some of you thick skulled know-it-all's with doctorates from MSNBC. 

These are their words. Not mine. Also, notice that they are not wearing masks in a room full of reporters and others. 

- The initial projected numbers we're grossly overstated and inaccurate.  

- The mortality rate for covid-19 is very low, around 0.03%, less lethal than the flu, which is 0.02 to 0.13.... "Millions of cases, small amount of deaths."

- Doctors and their colleagues have been pressured to label non-covid deaths, as coronavirus.

- There's a large populace of untested carriers. Actual infections are a multiple of the reported numbers (extrapolated numbers approx 64 million Americans) due to the contagious nature of the virus, lack of testing and FEAR

- Vaccines that do work, work due to herd immunity. If herd immunity works, then people, especially young and healthy people, need to be exposed to the virus as quickly as possible. That is how the immune system works, duh!

- Quarantines are for the sick, not the mass public of healthy people. And that covid is widespread, similar to the flu, and that is a good thing!

- There is more than a 90% chance of full recovery from covid without visiting a hospital.

 

Their conclusions come from their own research and data collection as well as public numbers. Not just 3rd party information.

They call Fauci "a disconnected academic, who operates from an ivory tower". 

They also repeatedly stated that, "this is microbiology and immunology 101, stuff we've been doing for years" and to "follow the science."

 

 

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47 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

So wait a second? If somebody with no medical training finds Internet doctor who agrees with his point, that trumps all others with no medical training who follow the advice of even more medical experts? These are very strange times.

Hello "climate change".

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1 minute ago, toonkee said:

Flu has multiple vaccines, covid has the shutdown. Two massive variables which make direct comparisons very difficult. We can probably extrapolate # of flu cases much more accurately than # of covid right now. We really don't know how many people had covid. To early to go the the mat defending any side of a comparison between the two.

Nah, we know COVID killed over 40k in a 30 day period.  We can compare the two, in fact there is no comparison!  Comparing to to the flu is stupid.  I have seen mortality rate estimates as low as 0.2 but if that is the case than the RO is far higher then the staggering 3.4-4.0 estimates and likely closer to 8.0.  We can certainly compare the two.  One will end up killing over 100,000 Americans, minimum, and likely far more if there is a second or third wave before a vaccine.  

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8 minutes ago, qwelish said:

Not shocking that this has been floating around for nearly a week, yet no one has managed to post it here. Would anyone like to pit their credentials against these two Doctors? These two Doctors are saying EXACTLY THE SAME THING as me and a few others here, who have been trying to get through to some of you thick skulled know-it-all's with doctorates from MSNBC. 

These are their words. Not mine. Also, notice that they are not wearing masks in a room full of reporters and others. 

- The initial projected numbers we're grossly overstated and inaccurate.  

- The mortality rate for covid-19 is very low, around 0.03%, less lethal than the flu, which is 0.02 to 0.13.... "Millions of cases, small amount of deaths."

- Doctors and their colleagues have been pressured to label non-covid deaths, as coronavirus.

- There's a large populace of untested carriers. Actual infections are a multiple of the reported numbers (extrapolated numbers approx 64 million Americans) due to the contagious nature of the virus, lack of testing and FEAR

- Vaccines that do work, work due to herd immunity. If herd immunity works, then people, especially young and healthy people, need to be exposed to the virus as quickly as possible. That is how the immune system works, duh!

- Quarantines are for the sick, not the mass public of healthy people. And that covid is widespread, similar to the flu, and that is a good thing!

- There is more than a 90% chance of full recovery from covid without visiting a hospital.

 

Their conclusions come from their own research and data collection as well as public numbers. Not just 3rd party information.

They call Fauci "a disconnected academic, who operates from an ivory tower". 

They also repeatedly stated that, "this is microbiology and immunology 101, stuff we've been doing for years" and to "follow the science."

 

 

You just posted this like an hour ago?

Appeal to "authority" and ignore all the other authority.  Sorry we have actual infectious disease experts giving their opinion, not some guy who could not get his MD.

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14 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Those who can't debate or argue their positions are the ones most often to appeal to authority.

I bet I can a few scientists with 3 minutes on google who would state man does not contribute to climate change.

I know geographers on my flat earth society forum that believe the world to be flat.

 

Wait, you have a flat earther forum? 

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Guest #1Stunner
59 minutes ago, qwelish said:

About Dr. Dan W Erickson MD

Dr. Dan W Erickson, MD is a doctor primarily located in Bakersfield, CA. Their specialties include Emergency Medicine.

An emergency physician is a doctor who is an expert in handling conditions of an urgent and extremely dangerous nature. These specialists work in the emergency room (ER) departments of hospitals where they oversee cases involving cardiac distress, trauma, fractures, lacerations and other acute conditions.Emergency physicians are specially trained to make urgent life-saving decisions to treat patients during an emergency medical crisis. These doctors diagnose and stabilize patients before they are either well enough to be discharged, or transferred to the appropriate department for long-term care.

 

Dr. Daniel Erickson, MD

Family Physician

Marshfield, WI

Dr. Daniel Erickson, MD is a Family Physician in Marshfield, WI. Dr. Erickson completed their Medical School at University Of Wisconsin Medical Sch. Following their education, Dr. Erickson was board certified by the American Board of Family Medicine.

 

Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi, co-owners of a chain of Accelerated Urgent Care facilities, say that after conducting more than 5,000 coronavirus tests they have come to the conclusion that COVID-19 is no more dangerous than a normal seasonal flu and quarantines are not making any difference in preventing its spread.

I googled Dan Erickson Elvis Presley haircut, and the California guy showed up.... 

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37 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Those who can't debate or argue their positions are the ones most often to appeal to authority.

I bet I can a few scientists with 3 minutes on google who would state man does not contribute to climate change.

I know geographers on my flat earth society forum that believe the world to be flat.

 

I must say I’m a bit skeptical on what these two doctors are saying, but Im not totally discounting what they are saying either. Why would they lie? There is still a lot we don’t know about the Cvirus in particular how many are actually infected, compared to how many have been tested. 

Also, the flu season is usually 2-3 months so those deaths are high in a short time frame like the Cvirus. 

Regarding the flat earth period of history,  those in that period that believed otherwise were few in number also. 

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8 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I must say I’m a bit skeptical on what these two doctors are saying, but Im not totally discounting what they are saying either. Why would they lie? There is still a lot we don’t know about the Cvirus in particular how many are actually infected, compared to how many have been tested. 

Also, the flu season is usually 2-3 months so those deaths are high in a short duration like the Cvirus. 

For sure people will discount what they have to say and anything else along these same lines.  They need to feel that what we have done was/is absolutely worth it and necessary.  Maybe what we did was the right path, but there are data points out there that suggest there are other paths.  If a vaccine is more than a year away from being available, if ever available, we had better hope there is another path besides shutdowns.

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Guest #1Stunner
2 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

For sure people will discount what they have to say and anything else along these same lines.  They need to feel that what we have done was/is absolutely worth it and necessary.  Maybe what we did was the right path, but there are data points out there that suggest there are other paths.  If a vaccine is more than a year away from being available, if ever available, we had better hope there is another path besides shutdowns.

The shutdowns need to end, and soon...

If people are uncomfortable with the virus risks, they can self-quarantine.

We cannot afford to not be engaging in business and commerce.   Plus there are reports now that the food supply is under stress because of this lockdown.   It can't continue much longer.

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1 hour ago, qwelish said:

Not shocking that this has been floating around for nearly a week, yet no one has managed to post it here. Would anyone like to pit their credentials against these two Doctors? These two Doctors are saying EXACTLY THE SAME THING as me and a few others here, who have been trying to get through to some of you thick skulled know-it-all's with doctorates from MSNBC. 

These are their words. Not mine. Also, notice that they are not wearing masks in a room full of reporters and others. 

- The initial projected numbers we're grossly overstated and inaccurate.  

- The mortality rate for covid-19 is very low, around 0.03%, less lethal than the flu, which is 0.02 to 0.13.... "Millions of cases, small amount of deaths."

This is just obviously wrong. 0.03% of the population of the US is 90,000. That would mean that currently over half of all Americans have contracted the virus. New York alone has 12,000 deaths; that means that 0.06% of New York has already died from the coronavirus. Are you saying that 200% of New Yorkers have contracted the virus?

1 hour ago, qwelish said:

- Doctors and their colleagues have been pressured to label non-covid deaths, as coronavirus.

By whom?

1 hour ago, qwelish said:

- There's a large populace of untested carriers. Actual infections are a multiple of the reported numbers (extrapolated numbers approx 64 million Americans) due to the contagious nature of the virus, lack of testing and FEAR

What is this extrapolation based on? Also, there have been 55,000 deaths in the US; if 64 million people have been infected, then that's a death rate of 0.08%, which is much higher than the figure quoted above, with many unresolved cases. 

1 hour ago, qwelish said:

- Vaccines that do work, work due to herd immunity. If herd immunity works, then people, especially young and healthy people, need to be exposed to the virus as quickly as possible. That is how the immune system works, duh!

Wait, what? Vaccines work by making individual people immune; vaccines create herd immunity if enough people are vaccinated, which protects the people who can't be vaccinated.

We don't have the tests to determine who has the disease and it's asymptomatic for weeks. what are you going to do, herd "young and healthy" people in to, say, camps and swab covid into their mouths and make them stay there for 2 months? Cause that kind of thing is great for the economy...?

1 hour ago, qwelish said:

- Quarantines are for the sick, not the mass public of healthy people. And that covid is widespread, similar to the flu, and that is a good thing!

We're not under quarantine. We call social distancing "quarantine" as a vulgar term but it isn't.

1 hour ago, qwelish said:

- There is more than a 90% chance of full recovery from covid without visiting a hospital.

So there should be about 6 million people in the hospital right now based on this doctor's figures above. There are less than a million hospital beds in the US. So...????????

1 hour ago, qwelish said:

 

Their conclusions come from their own research and data collection as well as public numbers. Not just 3rd party information.

They call Fauci "a disconnected academic, who operates from an ivory tower". 

They also repeatedly stated that, "this is microbiology and immunology 101, stuff we've been doing for years" and to "follow the science."

 

 

What research did they conduct? Where is the data?

I mean based on the above this doctor can't do arithmetic I'm not really going to put any faith in that

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Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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1 hour ago, qwelish said:

4 million people have been tested in the US alone. Have you concluded that only people who have been tested can be carriers? Extrapolations say that the infection rate is in the 10's of millions.

As far as I can see, your opinions are meaningless if you do not post your data and sources. You are also leaving out obvious extrapolations for the mass of the populace that has not been tested. 

Is that intentional, or do you just not know that's how projections are supposed to work?

These guys are testing patients. Are you? Are you quoting numbers from people who are? These Doctors also quote CDC numbers. Your claims are without proof. That is not scientific.

You do know these guys are not Epidemiologists right.   It’s like quoting a structural engineer about electron flows.   Or a plumber about the electronics in your house.  I’m happy to look at data and opinions and data does exist that shows Covid’s mortality rate is less than feared.   But if you are going to quote someone, quote someone with a degree, preferably a PhD in Public Health.  
 

Here is an example of a reasonable resume...

Dr. Goldman is an epidemiologist, pediatrician and educator who currently serves as dean of the George Washington School of Public Health and Health Services (SPHHS). Her areas of expertise include environmental health, environmental health policy, public health preparedness and emergency response.

Dr. Goldman’s career began with a Master of Science in Health and Medical Science from the University of California at Berkeley, an MPH from Johns Hopkins University and an MD degree from the University of California, San Francisco.
 

or this person.....


At Harvard University, Meyers received bachelor's degrees in mathematics and philosophy, which she said allowed her to grapple with complicated human questions and taught her to confront difficult realities with precise and thoughtful reasoning. After receiving a Ph.D. in biological sciences from Stanford University, Meyers went on to become a postdoctoral fellow at Emory University in Atlanta — right next door to the CDC headquarters.

 

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In the first 15 minutes:

They compare the number of COVID-19 deaths currently to the hundreds of thousands to millions without mentioning the time scale of said model predictions.

They do not mention if they tested 5000 random people or 5000 symptomatic and/or exposed people and likewise for the testing numbers of the various states and countries. Important for the extrapolations they make.

Compare COVID-19 deaths in three months to flu deaths PER YEAR

Gloss over the 4x difference in the percentage of positive cases between Norway and Sweden and the 5x difference in deaths per 1 million people. They just imply both numbers are very small and, thus, the differences are "statistically insignificant". That is not the definition of statistically insignificant.

Why should we trust these two guys, whose job is to treat and stabilize people in an Emergency Departments over epidemiologists whose job is to perform statistical analyses like the one these two haphazardly tried to do?

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30 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Nah, we know COVID killed over 40k in a 30 day period.  We can compare the two, in fact there is no comparison!  Comparing to to the flu is stupid.  I have seen mortality rate estimates as low as 0.2 but if that is the case than the RO is far higher then the staggering 3.4-4.0 estimates and likely closer to 8.0.  We can certainly compare the two.  One will end up killing over 100,000 Americans, minimum, and likely far more if there is a second or third wave before a vaccine.  

yes, we know deaths, those can be compared. But we don't know just how many people have had covid yet.  Accurate mortality rates for Covid are unknown at this time. 

Also, like I said, are we comparing mortality rates, or even deaths, with the flu vaccine in the models and with the extraordinary measures of the covid response? Or are we just saying raw flu left unchecked does x and raw covid left unchecked does y?

Looky here, for the record I'm not on team "this is just the flu". It's clearly much more dangerous than the flu at this time in real life terms as we have no effective treatments or vaccine. To your point, the body count is undeniable and it would be foolish to assume it wouldn't be even more disparate without "the shutdown".

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27 minutes ago, toonkee said:

yes, we know deaths, those can be compared. But we don't know just how many people have had covid yet.  Accurate mortality rates for Covid are unknown at this time. 

Also, like I said, are we comparing mortality rates, or even deaths, with the flu vaccine in the models and with the extraordinary measures of the covid response? Or are we just saying raw flu left unchecked does x and raw covid left unchecked does y?

Looky here, for the record I'm not on team "this is just the flu". It's clearly much more dangerous than the flu at this time in real life terms as we have no effective treatments or vaccine. To your point, the body count is undeniable and it would be foolish to assume it wouldn't be even more disparate without "the shutdown".

My guess is once we get a Cvirus vaccine it’s going to be very comparable to the flu. Although every thing at this point is speculation because we know so little about the Cvirus. 

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