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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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1 hour ago, CPslograd said:

How bad still depends on events though.  Of course if Corona virus does a slow roll through the entire country and tears each city up like NYC, it is going to be a depression.  If it doesn't, then maybe the ballsy guys who bought into the stock market last week get proven correct.

 

Guessing somewhere in-between.  Remember Seattle was first and and they did not get torn up like New York.  Most states are flattening and in slow decline of new cases.  Trick will be how to come back to life.  That will dictate the depression versus recession.

 

my crystal ball says that Schools, Bars, restaurants, events etc stay down longer but most stores and businesses begin to reopen with guidelines about number in the store and spacing.

Thinking a deep recession like 2008 but not a depression.  However, this event shows us the problems with the growing income divide in the US, how our healthcare system is paid for, and how the hell do we deal with all this debt.

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What the shit?

Quote

During one task force meeting in the Situation Room last month, Trump turned to Fauci and challenged him.

It was the day the administration was adding Ireland and the United Kingdom to its travel restrictions, and Trump wanted to understand why talk of “herd immunity” — allowing the coronavirus to sweep a nation largely unchecked, with the belief that those who survived would then be immune — was such a bad idea.

“Why don’t we let this wash over the country?” Trump asked, according to two people familiar with his comments, a question other administration officials say he has raised repeatedly in the Oval Office.

Fauci initially seemed confused by the term “wash over” but became alarmed once he understood what Trump was asking.

“Mr. President, many people would die,” Fauci said.

The president said he understood but since then has repeatedly made clear he wants to reopen things soon — although significant roadblocks remain.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-task-forces-coronavirus-pandemic/2020/04/11/5cc5a30c-7a77-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

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1 minute ago, retrofade said:

He absolutely should have been asking that question.  Other countries leaders were asking the same question and had various responses at that time.

The conventional wisdom on a pandemic flu (which this is very similar to) was that once it is widespread, it can't be contained.  The fact that Trump asked a valid question, then went with what his advisors recommended, isn't an outrage.

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21 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

 

He absolutely should have been asking that question.  Other countries leaders were asking the same question and had various responses at that time.

The conventional wisdom on a pandemic flu (which this is very similar to) was that once it is widespread, it can't be contained.  The fact that Trump asked a valid question, then went with what his advisors recommended, isn't an outrage.

I agree. Do nothing/status quo should be part of an alternative analysis for any decision. Analysts and project managers use it.

If the do nothing alternative had not been mentioned then Trump should ask. He should receive the cost/benefit comparison of that vs other choices.

 

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20 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

 

He absolutely should have been asking that question.  Other countries leaders were asking the same question and had various responses at that time.

The conventional wisdom on a pandemic flu (which this is very similar to) was that once it is widespread, it can't be contained.  The fact that Trump asked a valid question, then went with what his advisors recommended, isn't an outrage.

It was a very legitimate question.  Clearly the fastest (albeit least humane) way out of this is to just let it run it's course, bury the dead, and move on with an immune population.  Obviously that's not a good option, but part of the decision making process has to include a comparison between letting natural herd immunity occur and delaying it with these draconian measures.  Obviously a compassionate society will strive for the option with the least deaths, but not putting everything on the table is a disservice to the public as a whole. Recent studies indicate that we may need to start leaning a little more towards the herd immunity thing, although I don't see a complete departure from the precautions being pushed by the CDC.

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1 hour ago, FresnoFacts said:

I agree. Do nothing/status quo should be part of an alternative analysis for any decision. Analysts and project managers use it.

If the do nothing alternative had not been mentioned then Trump should ask. He should receive the cost/benefit comparison of that vs other choices.

 

Any time you’re faced with a tough decision, the do nothing alternative should always be on the table, and sometimes that can be the best option. I’m not saying it is in this case, but it’s an option. 

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9 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

I agree. Do nothing/status quo should be part of an alternative analysis for any decision. Analysts and project managers use it.

If the do nothing alternative had not been mentioned then Trump should ask. He should receive the cost/benefit comparison of that vs other choices.

 

Except that alternative had been mentioned. He was given briefs from various different groups on what the impact would be given various different scenarios. All of that is in public reporting at this point. I do agree that if it hadn't been brought up, then sure it's a legitimate question, but we know from various sources that it had.

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1 hour ago, retrofade said:

Except that alternative had been mentioned. He was given briefs from various different groups on what the impact would be given various different scenarios. All of that is in public reporting at this point. I do agree that if it hadn't been brought up, then sure it's a legitimate question, but we know from various sources that it had.

You were going to be outraged no matter what because Trump...  and you have no clue on timelines.

v0icAvfW.jpg

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11 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Any time you’re faced with a tough decision, the do nothing alternative should always be on the table, and sometimes that can be the best option. I’m not saying it is in this case, but it’s an option. 

Looking at status quo alternatives was drilled into me by my strategy professor.

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13 hours ago, CPslograd said:

 

He absolutely should have been asking that question.  Other countries leaders were asking the same question and had various responses at that time.

The conventional wisdom on a pandemic flu (which this is very similar to) was that once it is widespread, it can't be contained.  The fact that Trump asked a valid question, then went with what his advisors recommended, isn't an outrage.

I agree.  That’s what good leaders do.  They force people to consider all alternatives and develop contingency plans.   He didn’t do it early enough but it’s the right thing to be doing now.  

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3,400,000 - Population of San Diego county

1761 - Number of confirmed Chinese flu cases

45 - total deaths for the Chinese flu

9- total deaths of people under the age of 70

1- death with no underlying heath conditions

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-03-16/tracking-coronavirus-cases-san-diego-countys-case-count-reaches-55

For THIS we have de-facto Marshal law and have collapsed our economy

 

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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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3 hours ago, retrofade said:

Except that alternative had been mentioned. He was given briefs from various different groups on what the impact would be given various different scenarios. All of that is in public reporting at this point. I do agree that if it hadn't been brought up, then sure it's a legitimate question, but we know from various sources that it had.

Had Fauci presented his own quantified analysis of do nothing compared to other choices he might be recommending? "Different groups" is not the same as Fauci's view. One group might have looked from mainly an economic impact viewpoint, another group might have used different assumptions than Fauci, etc..

We don't know context of Trump's comment, was it out of the blue or during a presentation. Fauci saying "many people would die" is also different than him responding with something more specific like I believe up to 1,000,000 million Americans could die if we do nothing.

I believe we needed to take strong measures. I think do nothing would have been the wrong choice. But this is one time that I am not concerned about a Trump comment. There are many other Trump comments and actions that have concerned me though.

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7 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

3,400,000 - Population of San Diego county

1761 - Number of confirmed Chinese flu cases

45 - total deaths for the Chinese flu

9- total deaths of people under the age of 70

1- death with no underlying heath conditions

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-03-16/tracking-coronavirus-cases-san-diego-countys-case-count-reaches-55

For THIS we have de-facto Marshal law and have collapsed our economy

 

I know ur just trying to get a reaction out of liberals, but just to be more accurate, you might want to call it the Chinese coronavirus. Coronaviruses and influenza viruses have different and unique molecular structures:

Comparisons-Between-Coronavirus-And -Influenza.jpg

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10 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

3,400,000 - Population of San Diego county

1761 - Number of confirmed Chinese flu cases

45 - total deaths for the Chinese flu

9- total deaths of people under the age of 70

1- death with no underlying heath conditions

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-03-16/tracking-coronavirus-cases-san-diego-countys-case-count-reaches-55

For THIS we have de-facto Marshal law and have collapsed our economy

 

That’s why the numbers are low? Why is this so hard to comprehend?

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1 minute ago, Stealthlobo said:

I know ur just trying to get a reaction out of liberals, but just to be more accurate, you might want to call it the Chinese coronavirus. Coronaviruses and influenza viruses have different and unique molecular structures:

Comparisons-Between-Coronavirus-And -Influenza.jpg

Wuhan Whooping Cough then

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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3 minutes ago, Stealthlobo said:

I know ur just trying to get a reaction out of liberals, but just to be more accurate, you might want to call it the Chinese coronavirus. Coronaviruses and influenza viruses have different and unique molecular structures:

Comparisons-Between-Coronavirus-And -Influenza.jpg

https://www.google.com/amp/s/variety.com/2020/biz/news/bill-maher-coronavirus-chinese-virus-controversy-1234577859/amp/

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8 minutes ago, NevadaFan said:

That’s why the numbers are low? Why is this so hard to comprehend?

There's no evidence to support your claim. You act as if there are no numbers prior to shutting down the country.  Why is that so hard to comprehend?

Besides, what if the numbers were 10X worse?  17,000 cases, 450 deaths, 90 people under the age of 70. 10 with no underlying conditions. Is that bad enough to shut  down the economy?

Your claim that Marshal Law has "saved" doesn't stand up against MILLIONS unemployed and MILLIONS impoverished

 

 

 

 

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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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