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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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41 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Social distancing is working here.  I challenge anyone to convince me why a more rigorous statewide shutdown is necessary.  I’m not convinced it will do much above and beyond what the state is doing now.  The spread rate is pretty controlled and constant at this point.  Only 5% of people getting tested are positive.  The death rate is low.  The Stay Home Stay Safe policy is generally effective.  As you point out, where stricter measures are needed they are in place.  Overall, I think Utah is going to weather this fairly well - some of that is attributed to favorable demographics though with a younger population.

There is a point to the fact the lower population density in rural areas does impact both the measured transmissibility as well as the size of an outbreak. 

And to your point, does it matter from whom the stay-at-home order comes provided the population centers that lend themselves to an R0>1 do in fact fall under such an order? I don't think it matters.

As far as Utah's testing is concerned, you guys are testing about 5x the population per capita right now as we are (of course, clearing backlogs and bottlenecks is a more Herculean task with 12x the population). And as the WHO estimates a ration ≥10:1 of tests:+ tests as the threshold for gaining a critical mass of visibility into the extent of the epidemic, you guys do seem to be on top of it. I hope it stays that way for you guys.

 

 

ETA:  One method for estimating the real case count in Utah is to consider your localized CFR of .78% and estimate there were already approx. 1675 cases in the state somewhere between 20-27 days ago, and then using estimated case doubling rates for the state you can estimate what that number would be now.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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46 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Yep, but an interesting view from Fox's Steve Hilton. And a changing viewpoint from him.

Just a few week's ago Hilton was in the "isolate only the old people and protect the economy" group. Now he is calling for all of the country to shut down.

Almost everyone changed their mind on this at some point.  The important thing is the willingness to change your mind after being presented with the appropriate facts. 

I think it's open to debate as to whether or not certain politicians that may have been given certain intelligence information ahead of time made an informed opinion quick enough, but for the general population did ok on this one I think. (Considering how hard it is to do something of this nature on this scale and basically give up their way of life temporarily)

 

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48 minutes ago, MetropolitanCowboy said:

In MT, most of the cases are in Gallatin and Yellowstone, with a higher-than-average number in Toole...I don't see why most counties can't have freedom of movement, while shutting down the places like Gallatin (Bozeman), Missoula, etc. 

The small areas have very limited medical capability.  It would only take 5 cases to overwhelm some of those small town hospitals.   Red Lodge just shut down the mountain and town as people kept driving out to hike the hill and ski even though the resort is closed.  Red lodge has few cases but very limited medical and if Billings gets full they won't let them transfer. Whitefish just forced all Hotels and short term rentals like air B&B to close and quit renting to keep people form hiding there and bringing it in.

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1 hour ago, East Coast Aztec said:

In states with low densities besides the cities, I agree, counties should dictate, and if the infections are low, then stress caution, but no order.  I hope most states shift from state to regional orders soon.  I would still highly, highly stress for elderly and susceptible to be extremely cautious, regardless of location.

I mean... in Chelan and Douglas counties at least actual enforcement of stay home stay safe seems to make this be the reality. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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6 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

Norway says their measures have the virus under control. Norway shut down early and did a high level of testing/tracking (a rate of 20,530 people tested per million population).

Too early to say for sure if they are correct. But if true, the measures they imposed have worked so far with their population and culture.

The highlighted word undoubtedly has a lot to do with it.

Compare Norway to the US. Then compare the two to Italy and Spain.

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Education/Average-years-of-schooling-of-adults

Boom goes the dynamite.

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1 hour ago, WAC_FAN said:

Almost everyone changed their mind on this at some point.  The important thing is the willingness to change your mind after being presented with the appropriate facts.

There are still a number of people who have not changed their minds yet. I have spoken to a few recently IRL.

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14 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

1% of the country has now been infected. what is the ceiling for this 2%, 5%, god forbid 10% or more

It would be more accurate to say 1% .1% of the population has tested positive. If we start with yesterday's total of approx. 10,000 deaths and use Germany's baseline CFR of 1.5% (lower than has been realized elsewhere), than it can be assumed there were over 650K infected people in this country 3-4 weeks ago. Our case doubling rate has been about once every three days, but if we were to assume social distancing has cut that to a national average of once every 7 days, then it can be roughly estimated there are approx. 5.2 million to 10.4 million infected people in our population, both which would be remarkably low considering the estimates of 10-20% infection rates even with social distancing policies in place.

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St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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8 hours ago, sactowndog said:

No kidding....

I missed my Collegiate Hall of Fame induction..

My kids both missed their High School Hall of Fame induction

My son may well have missed out participating in the Tokyo Olympics

But guess what, had the trade off been losing my wife, their mother, to Covid we are pretty much all happy to deal with the consequences.

I feel you. I was getting the Nobel prize...

 

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54 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

It would be more accurate to say 1% of the population has tested positive. If we start with yesterday's total of approx. 10,000 deaths and use Germany's baseline CFR of 1.5% (lower than has been realized elsewhere), than it can be assumed there were over 650K infected people in this country 3-4 weeks ago. Our case doubling rate has been about once every three days, but if we were to assume social distancing has cut that to a national average of once every 7 days, then it can be roughly estimated there are approx. 5.2 million to 10.4 million infected people in our population, both which would be remarkably low considering the estimates of 10-20% infection rates even with social distancing policies in place.

Your numbers appear to be off by a factor of ten. The US has a population of 330,000,000. One percent of that would be 3,300,000. The number of our total population that tested positive as of today is 363,000 or about 0.1%

As a side note the actual percentage of our population tested is a bit over 0.5% per the attached article.

https://www.statista.com/chart/21108/covid-19-tests-performed-per-million-of-the-population/

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2 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Your numbers appear to be off by a factor of ten. The US has a population of 330,000,000. One percent of that would be 3,300,000. The number of our total population that tested positive as of today is 363,000 or about 0.1%

As a side note the actual percentage of our population tested is a bit over 0.5% per the attached article.

https://www.statista.com/chart/21108/covid-19-tests-performed-per-million-of-the-population/

Yep on both counts.

Screen-Shot-2020-04-06-at-10-25-56-PM.pn

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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I don’t care who you are, this shit is funny.  

Y’all need a laugh.  Watch it :lol:

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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Revised models are reporting significantly less deaths and hospitalizations than previously projected. On the drug front there is also encouraging news. They are finding hydroxychloroquine combined with zinc has been successful treating severe cases of the virus and it’s being used more often. 

Boston Medical Center is going to start clinical trials using nitrous oxide which has been used on babies to assist in breathing. They seem pretty excited it will help in early treatment for the Cvirus. Good news all around. Now we need a vaccine developed as early as possible. 

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4 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Revised models are reporting significantly less deaths and hospitalizations than previously projected. On the drug front there is also encouraging news. They are finding hydroxychloroquine combined with zinc has been successful treating severe cases of the virus and it’s being used more often. 

All that money Trump will now make...:rolleyes:

 

 

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15 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

And all those people who will now die as they refuse a potentially effective treatment all because Trump....  :rolleyes:

Hospitals in Sweden have largely stopped using Hydroxychloroquine because of the negative side effects that their patients have been experiencing as compared to its effectiveness. 

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this virus has some nasty complications for some

Quote

Doctors and researchers have reported that many severe cases end up developing heart damage during the course of their infection, sometimes culminating in a fatal cardiac arrest in which the heart stops beating. More rarely, suspected or confirmed patients have also shown symptoms and signs of neurological illness, such as brain swelling, seizures, and strokes (loss of smell or taste, commonly reported by sufferers, can also be linked to neurological damage).

https://gizmodo.com/latest-coronavirus-science-heart-and-brain-damage-may-1842708731

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3 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Hospitals in Sweden have largely stopped using Hydroxychloroquine because of the negative side effects that their patients have been experiencing as compared to its effectiveness. 

Oh yeah, well it’s still used in several other countries.  So where does that leave us?

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