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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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Just now, mysfit said:

Carthage?

 

Not Aztecs and mayans?

Carthage was an outlier in its area, killed mostly children and babies, and for a while there threatened to conquer a much larger area than either the Aztecs or the Mayas who were geographically constrained. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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17 minutes ago, happycamper said:

I spent a week in Indiana in 2006 and quickly came to the conclusion that Indiana sucks. So... that's it. no politics, just Indiana.

The organization I worked for partnered with a large company based in Indianapolis, sending groups of their employees to volunteer in India. I accompanied some of their volunteer groups to Delhi, and it was definitely... an experience I'll never forget. 

But hey, it's the home of David Letterman!

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13 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Here is an interesting article. There was no chance in stopping this virus from spreading.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625

Could China have announced to the world a couple of weeks earlier that there was concern that a SARS-like outbreak was occurring? Possibly," Ellerin said. "Could an immediate travel ban announced by China have slowed the spread of this virus even further? Likely. But, in the end, given the complexities of global travel and the insidious nature of this virus, even an immediate travel ban probably would not have fully contained this contagious pathogen."

Stopping a pathogen as easily transmissible as SARS-CoV-2 is like trying to stop the wind.

But what you can do is slow it the f*ck down.

And in doing so, with competent leadership, preventative steps can be taken, such as shoring up strategic reserves, ramping up test kit production, increasing CDC manpower so as to adequately screen all international arrivals, and by either providing the human resources required or ensuring state and local agencies have the necessary funding to scale up their own staff so as to effectively contact trace.

By doing all the above, and by doing it effectively, both ROK and Taiwan were able to more-or-less function normally. And by doing so, Germany was able to effectively shield the more vulnerable segments of their population and reduce their measured CFR to 1/10th that of Italy.

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1 hour ago, East Coast Aztec said:

There are way too many unmentioned factors that comprise that data to aid it as reliable for relation to today.  Different disease, too vague of the "Stricter vs Less", demographic and population differences, etc.

Correlation an causality are most certainly two different animals, and there are surely additional causal factors at play as you suggest . However, there is no shortage of modeling done in the here and now based on current datasets to qualify - and quantify - the impact of social distancing on infection rates.

Not to mention, as conveyed to Boob, modeling is not required to qualify the causal relationship between the two as the salient fact that A cannot infect B if an adequate distance exists between the two is borne out by the simple process of induction.

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19 minutes ago, mysfit said:

Perhaps you haven't read lately about the mass graves in central America with 100s of ritually sacrificed children?

I guess the difference is we don’t have any contemporary sources from those cultures. The ancient writers were used to some horribly cruel, violent behavior across all societies. But even they looked at Carthage and said...

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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Just now, thelawlorfaithful said:

I guess the difference is we don’t have any contemporary sources from those cultures. The ancient writers were used to some horribly cruel, violent behavior across all societies. But even they looked at Carthage and said...

source.gif

Yeah... that's the crux of it. The Romans compared to today were terrifying theocratic fascists who saw anyone who didn't have wealth or power as a tool to exploit. Life had no inherent value and if killing someone brought value and they were too weak or useless to stop it, then they died. Slavery was expected, fathers had the power of life and death over their entire family, massive slave mines fueled industry, and genocide was the goal, not a byproduct. The worst dystopian empires we create today look like sofites.

The Romans thought that Carthage was terrifying. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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2 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Yeah... that's the crux of it. The Romans compared to today were terrifying theocratic fascists who saw anyone who didn't have wealth or power as a tool to exploit. Life had no inherent value and if killing someone brought value and they were too weak or useless to stop it, then they died. Slavery was expected, fathers had the power of life and death over their entire family, massive slave mines fueled industry, and genocide was the goal, not a byproduct. The worst dystopian empires we create today look like sofites.

The Romans thought that Carthage was terrifying. 

On a side note, dabbling in ancient history is one of the things that helps me feel better about the situation. Like, the Rona sucks, a looming depression and the political fallout is scary; but it’s not the king rebelled and lost and now the Assyrians are outside the gates scary.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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32 minutes ago, Fort Fun said:

The organization I worked for partnered with a large company based in Indianapolis, sending groups of their employees to volunteer in India. I accompanied some of their volunteer groups to Delhi, and it was definitely... an experience I'll never forget. 

But hey, it's the home of David Letterman!

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someone smarter than me (which opens this up to everyone that doesn't have a 3 letter username starting and ending with 'B' and a middle letter 'O') :)  

SARS and MERS were viruses in the same family with many similarities and a few differences.  We clearly seem to have rid ourselves of the dangers of those two bastards without risk of them coming back (I think).  They ended because we contained them and either their hosts either died or recovered and weren't able to spread.  It sounds like this is different and there could be a risk of this being more seasonal like influenza.  Does anyone understand that?  Is this one likely to come back because its so contagious that it will just keep feeding endlessly?

 

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7 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

someone smarter than me (which opens this up to everyone that doesn't have a 3 letter username starting and ending with 'B' and a middle letter 'O') :)  

SARS and MERS were viruses in the same family with many similarities and a few differences.  We clearly seem to have rid ourselves of the dangers of those two bastards without risk of them coming back (I think).  They ended because we contained them and either their hosts either died or recovered and weren't able to spread.  It sounds like this is different and there could be a risk of this being more seasonal like influenza.  Does anyone understand that?  Is this one likely to come back because its so contagious that it will just keep feeding endlessly?

 

Both SARS and MERS are still around. In each instance, patients present symptoms for days before they become infectious (which is what makes SARS-CoV-2 so insidious). Healthcare workers get a huge 'heads up' with patients of either, and have plenty of time to isolate cases before they infect others.

China culls large populations of chickens/fowl when an outbreak occurs, and in the Arabian peninsula it's the camels who are the carriers of MERS.

And lulz at Boob. He has become the banner carrier of ignorance in this thread. 

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8 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

someone smarter than me (which opens this up to everyone that doesn't have a 3 letter username starting and ending with 'B' and a middle letter 'O') :)  

SARS and MERS were viruses in the same family with many similarities and a few differences.  We clearly seem to have rid ourselves of the dangers of those two bastards without risk of them coming back (I think).  They ended because we contained them and either their hosts either died or recovered and weren't able to spread.  It sounds like this is different and there could be a risk of this being more seasonal like influenza.  Does anyone understand that?  Is this one likely to come back because its so contagious that it will just keep feeding endlessly?

Speaking out of my ass, but those two were much more vicious strains of virus. When you got infected with them, you were on your back in pretty short order. This was bad if you had it, and was dangerous for the people around you caring for you while you were coughing, sneezing, sweating, and all the other bowel ejections. But you weren’t out walking around spreading it widely for long before it put you on your back. That’s why when they were contained, they didn’t reappear greatly. Darwin said Mr. virus you are not fit for this environment.

This bugger spreads first. It spreads far and wide. And by the time it hits you’ve been out and about for days. Now hopefully it will follow like with the flu, where the less deadly mutations prosper and the more deadly ones die out from killing their hosts too quickly, not allowing it to spread and reproduce.

Edit: that last line sounds callous. It wasn’t meant to be, just speaking from a barely informed adjunct evolutionary biology perspective.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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