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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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50 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

The total # of cases is a sign of the numbers of tests that have been reported more than anything else.  Obviously a lot more than 100k have contracted it.  And a hell of a lot more than 11k in UK have if the prime minister and prince Charles have it.

This is a good point... what does the # of cases on a chart look like compared to # of tests administered? And is there any situation out there right now where it's even possible for stats people to make an educated guess at how many people actually have the virus using # of people showing sumptoms?

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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6 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

This is a good point... what does the # of cases on a chart look like compared to # of tests administered? And is there any situation out there right now where it's even possible for stats people to make an educated guess at how many people actually have the virus using # of people showing sumptoms?

This is from a different/older dataset, but it should give a decent overview.

MBjHhli.png

That puts us at about 15% of people who have tests administered end up testing positive. We also know that people who are tested are ones who exhibit all symptoms and/or have come in contact with someone who has tested positive. Something else to note is that at the beginning of the week, that tested positive rate was between 12-13%, so it has inched up since then... likely due to test criteria being tightened. 

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Must watch for the nay sayers. Before it’s all said and done over a million will get it.

 

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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4 weeks ago: 60 cases, 0 deaths
3 weeks ago: 227 cases, 12 deaths
2 weeks ago: 1,636 cases, 41 deaths
1 week ago: 13,229 cases, 195 deaths
Right now: 82,135 cases, 1,195 deaths

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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11 minutes ago, Warbow said:

Must watch for the nay sayers. Before it’s all said and done over a million will get it.

 

Here is another video of an actual COVID-19 patient's lungs from George Washington University in DC. This one is a 3D video from a CT scan. The yellow in the video is the infected/inflamed area of the lungs.

The patient is a 59 year old male coronavirus patient with only high blood pressure as a known preexisting condition.

Currently he is on both a ventilator at the highest setting plus a machine to oxygenate his blood.

 

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We must do better for our health care workers than we are. They have to have proper PPE. We've already lost 1 nurse in NY.

 

Quote

51 Italian doctors who contracted coronavirus have died since the start of the pandemic

From Sharon Braithwaite in London

Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis in Italy, 51 doctors who tested positive for the disease have died, the Italian Association of Doctors said Friday.

The news of the death toll comes after an urgent call for medical protective equipment from the president of the association, Filippo Anelli, on Thursday.

By the numbers: Since the beginning of the epidemic, 6,414 health workers have been infected by coronavirus as of Thursday, according to the Italian National Institute of Health.

Out of the 51 deceased doctors, 32 were working in Lombardy, the Italian region worst-hit by coronavirus.

 

One of the Final Five..........

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18 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Here is another video of an actual COVID-19 patient's lungs from George Washington University in DC. This one is a 3D video from a CT scan. The yellow in the video is the infected/inflamed area of the lungs.

The patient is a 59 year old male coronavirus patient with only high blood pressure as a known preexisting condition.

Currently he is on both a ventilator at the highest setting plus a machine to oxygenate his blood.

 

I'm also concerned about the reports that the coronavirus causes heart damage 

 

I don't know that you need both a vent and ECMO

Unless there is something therapeutic for the lungs?

One of the Final Five..........

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Just now, mysfit said:

I'm also concerned about the reports that the coronavirus causes heart damage 

The lack of oxygen has an effect on all major organs. 

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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1 hour ago, mysfit said:

We must do better for our health care workers than we are. They have to have proper PPE. We've already lost 1 nurse in NY.

 

 

When you think about how many doctors (likely) die from the flu contracted via their (hundreds of) patients each year, that is just an obscene number of doctor deaths, and in a very short period of time. This number (51) will only get worse. So tragic for the very people who are simply doing their best to try and save lives and under terrible conditions/circumstances...

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21 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Seems there are two main world views when it comes to this.

- save as many lives as possible while doing their best not to tank the economy too much

- keep the economy as stable as possible while doing their best to ensure a catastrophic number of people don’t die 

The former stress that if the medical system is overwhelmed, the economy will tank anyway. The latter says if the economic downturn is too severe, people will die anyway. Kind of a catch-22, I can see why not many appear to be changing their minds. 

Yeah, it is a bit of a Catch-22 and I'll put it this way:

Joe Average physician thinks we should quarantine virtually everybody until the proverbial curve is flattened to zero.

Joe Average big business owner thinks nobody who is productive and asymptomatic should be quarantined after Easter Sunday.

Because none of us are physicians or big business owners, the position of most of us here appears to be somewhere in between.

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Boom goes the dynamite.

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17 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

Yeah, it is a bit of a Catch-22 and I'll put it this way:

Joe Average physician thinks we should quarantine virtually everybody until the proverbial curve is flattened to zero.

Joe Average big business owner thinks nobody who is productive and asymptomatic should be quarantined after Easter Sunday.

Because none of us are physicians or big business owners, the position of most of us here appears to be somewhere in between.

I am in the extreme on this board.  I am on record saying the only valid recourse is social distancing off and on to flatten and re flatten the curve until we have a vaccine.  Then we march on the Government, scary black gun in hand, to demand our rights back.

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22 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Seems there are two main world views when it comes to this.

- save as many lives as possible while doing their best not to tank the economy too much

- keep the economy as stable as possible while doing their best to ensure a catastrophic number of people don’t die 

The former stress that if the medical system is overwhelmed, the economy will tank anyway. The latter says if the economic downturn is too severe, people will die anyway. Kind of a catch-22, I can see why not many appear to be changing their minds. 

I think this is a decent way to characterize it. I would add, though, that at least for me "the economy" isn't about the stock market or corporations as much as it is about the connections and exchanges that ultimately define the human experience. So I'm just as concerned about how these house arrests are preventing church services, concerts, family gatherings, funerals, weddings, pick-up basketball games, street chess matches, weekly bar trivia nights, etc. as they are impacting just job numbers or the DOW.

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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32 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Then we march on the Government, scary black gun in hand, to demand our rights back.

Problem is, this scenario rarely ends in more rights. 

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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