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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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20 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Update.  Just got off the phone with Cousin and inlaw.  Lots of tears in their home tonight.

+++++ this shit 

Hey man, hang in there. Speaking from personal experience, it may be wise to step away from sources of news and info about this where people debate this stuff without a lot of filters. Surround yourself with and consume things that make you feel good. Avoid the things that make you angry or anxious. I know its particularly tough in this situation, but that's my honest advice from experience. 

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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5 minutes ago, mugtang said:

What I still can't figure out is why there's no phucking toilet paper still :rolleyes:

Boom! Problem solved!

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Bidet-Toilet-Fresh-Water-Spray-Clean-Seat-Non-Electric-Kit-Attachment-Bathroom-x/353000897607?hash=item52307e3c47:g:kJAAAOSwj7heajXW

 

 

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1 minute ago, smltwnrckr said:

Hey man, hang in there. Speaking from personal experience, it may be wise to step away from sources of news and info about this where people debate this stuff without a lot of filters. Surround yourself with and consume things that make you feel good. Avoid the things that make you angry or anxious. I know its particularly tough in this situation, but that's my honest advice from experience. 

Thanks man.  Still gunna mwcboard cus wtf else am I gunna do.  Right?  Just not gunna really debate or engage on much myself, cus I'm pretty angry about a lot and I may say things I regret.  But this is my cyber home.  We built this house.  

Cheers to the better times ahead.

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43 minutes ago, mugtang said:

That’s if you believe China’s numbers are accurate (which I don’t). 

I don’t believe their official numbers. I also  believe our numbers are artificially low because of the lag in testing here. 

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20 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I don’t believe their official numbers. I also  believe our numbers are artificially low because of the lag in testing here. 

I agree ours are low because of testing issues.  

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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1 hour ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I don’t believe their official numbers. I also  believe our numbers are artificially low because of the lag in testing here. 

The daily death count curve tells the real story. The numbers that have been tested versus positive tests also has meaning as it provides a trend. The total numbers tested have little meaning since there are likely thousands if not millions out there that could be infected that haven’t been tested. I’ll start breathing easier when the daily death count starts tapering off. Unfortunately it’s still climbing. 

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31 minutes ago, Mad_Hatter said:

Here’s an interactive chart showing how each day with restrictions relates to our curve. Along with much of what @TheSanDiegan has already explained to us with all the wicked math skills. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

Required reading for the dumb-dumbs that still doubt what @TheSanDiegan has essentially been stating here all along.  Of course, they'll famously flunk the test on the subject at the very first opportunity...

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18 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

The daily death count curve tells the real story. The numbers that have been tested versus positive tests also has meaning as it provides a trend. The total numbers tested have little meaning since there are likely thousands if not millions out there that could be infected that haven’t been tested. I’ll start breathing easier when the daily death count starts tapering off. Unfortunately it’s still climbing. 

The number I personally pay the most attention to is the number of active cases. That is the most cut and dry way of seeing where the trend is going imo. The U.S. passing China in total cases was just a depressing anecdote I thought I’d share. 

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2 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Thanks man.  Still gunna mwcboard cus wtf else am I gunna do.  Right?  Just not gunna really debate or engage on much myself, cus I'm pretty angry about a lot and I may say things I regret.  But this is my cyber home.  We built this house.  

Cheers to the better times ahead.

Dude take a drive this weekend and go fishing. You need to get out and get your mind off of all of this stuff that you can’t control.  It’ll help.

i hope all turns out well with your family.

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My uncle tested positive for COVID-19 today. He's immuno-compromised, but fortunately, he hasn't needed hospitalization yet. He is ill with flu-like symptoms but is staying at home. I think he will make it through.

He was only able to get a test because he was formerly in the military and had some sort of connection (I didn't get specifics). 

 

A couple of my cousins/second cousins who have frequent contact with him are also sick, but none have required hospitalization. I strongly suspect they also have it.

 

 

Fortunately, they have all stayed away from my grandparents (who are old and have underlying conditions) and have followed social distancing the past 2 weeks.

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On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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10 hours ago, mugtang said:

That’s if you believe China’s numbers are accurate (which I don’t). 

And even if their numbers are real, which I agree are suspect, it would be because China locked everything down in a way the U.S. is both unwilling and unable to do.

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9 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Thanks man.  Still gunna mwcboard cus wtf else am I gunna do.  Right?  Just not gunna really debate or engage on much myself, cus I'm pretty angry about a lot and I may say things I regret.  But this is my cyber home.  We built this house.  

Cheers to the better times ahead.

Keep your head up buddy. We’re thinking of you. 

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For those like convert who compare this to the flu:

Modeling the virus underscores why epidemiologists emphasize that this is not the flu and why we should not expect a return to normal within weeks.

One gauge of a virus is how contagious it is. The flu has an infectiousness measure (or R0) of only about 1.5, meaning that each sick person infects on average 1.5 others. In contrast, Covid-19 without social distancing appears to have an R0 of perhaps 2.5.

A second gauge of a virus is how often infected people must be hospitalized. With the seasonal flu that’s roughly 1 percent; with the coronavirus, estimates range from 5 percent to 20 percent.

A higher R0 and higher hospitalization rate conspire to wreak havoc. A single person with the flu can result in the infections of 386 other people over two months, and a handful would be hospitalized. But in that same period one Covid-19 patient could lead to the infections of 99,000 people, of whom nearly 20,000 might need to be hospitalized.

 

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