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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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Just now, modestobulldog said:

I have worked 35 years corporate accounting and finance and I never know about that,  Retiring soon.  Oh well.  Even though I have 10 key on my desk, I don't use it often and i haven't run the tape in years.  Roll is getting yellow.

Once you have Judy, you never go back ! 

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2 hours ago, happycamper said:

Based on everything I'm seeing, and the fact that we had exactly 0 ventilators in 1918, am I right in concluding that COVID-19 would have killed more people than the Spanish Influenza in 1918? Is there anyone here who would know about this?

Iirc Spanish flew spread in ways that were unusual because of the war. It also killed children at a higher rate. And I dont have the numbers, but what percent of the population was over 65 and/or living with chronic health conditions in 1918 as compared to today? I'm guessing a lot less.

Not saying this is not bad, but it's hard to compare the two in a lot of ways. 

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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This is good news.  I’d post it in the good news thread but I want to have a light in the doom and gloom here. 

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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If this is reflected in declines in cases or cae rates  in 14 days and we can ease some or many of the restrictions at that point, or confidently map out a timeline for that, I think most people with my concerns would take that.

Edit: this is a reference to mug's above optimistic post.

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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7 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

If this is reflected in declines in cases or cae rates  in 14 days and we can ease some or many of the restrictions at that point, or confidently map out a timeline for that, I think most people with my concerns would take that.

Edit: this is a reference to mug's above optimistic post.

The catch is if it will re-ignite if it's not almost 100% stamped out though?

 

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3 minutes ago, toonkee said:

The catch is if it will re-ignite if it's not almost 100% stamped out though?

 

Is it correct that it won't be 100% stamped out until there is a vaccine and it is administered to enough of the population?

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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7 minutes ago, toonkee said:

The catch is if it will re-ignite if it's not almost 100% stamped out though?

It will but we will be able to curb it more easily with hopefully faster buy in. Once we’ve been shown it can work, people will know what it’s like and what it takes for a little while. We were all daisy fresh rookies at combatting this a month ago. We’ll be made of sterner stuff once we’re on better footing. Rocker’s concerns about a timeline are valid. A little security and control of our own futures will go a long way.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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6 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Is it correct that it won't be 100% stamped out until there is a vaccine and it is administered to enough of the population?

Sounds reasonable.

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8 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Sounds reasonable.

I haven't seen predictions that this is even thinkable in less than a year. That is not possible, to keep 1 in 3 people in their homes for that long. So we can't have massive orders to stay in our homes across the country until it's 100% stamped out. 

Edit:

@thelawlorfaithful put it well just now. People want control of their own futures. And they will take that control eventually whether the state wants them to or not.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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Just now, smltwnrckr said:

I haven't seen predictions that this is even thinkable in less than a year. That is not possible, to keep 1 in 3 people in their homes for that long. So we can't have massive orders to stay in our homes across the country until it's 100% stamped out. 

And the best projections are 12-18 months until there’s a vaccine.   And keeping the country shut down that long isn’t possible.  

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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8 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

It will but we will be able to curb it more easily with hopefully faster buy in. Once we’ve been shown it can work, people will know what it’s like and what it takes for a little while. We were all daisy fresh rookies at combatting this a month ago. We’ll be made of sterner stuff once we’re on better footing. Rocker’s concerns about a timeline are valid. A little security and control of our own futures will go a long way.

Or...Will we become more complacent? I dunno.

We seem to bias our estimation of public opinion, as in all things not just this, to how we personally feel. 

Hard to predict what the zeitgeist will be 2 weeks or two months down the road imo. Seems to be mutating (pun intended).

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2 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

I haven't seen predictions that this is even thinkable in less than a year. That is not possible, to keep 1 in 3 people in their homes for that long. So we can't have massive orders to stay in our homes across the country until it's 100% stamped out. 

Yeah, I agree.

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2 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Or...Will we become more complacent? I dunno.

We seem to bias our estimation of public opinion, as in all things not just this, to how we personally feel. 

Hard to predict what the zeitgeist will be 2 weeks or two months down the road imo. Seems to be mutating (pun intended).

I think that's fair... my sense on how people will feel is based on how i think i will feel. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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4 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Treatment, my dudes. 

Probably don't have to have it stamped out to get moving again.

And I continue to believe we will have viable treatments within a month, two tops.  

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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4 minutes ago, mugtang said:

And the best projections are 12-18 months until there’s a vaccine.   And keeping the country shut down that long isn’t possible.  

I haven’t heard people advocating for 12-18 months of lockdown. I’ve heard people say we may not get completely “back to normal” for 12-18 months, but I don't think that means lockdown that entire time. 
 

Anyways, Italy got absolutely ravaged by this, but even they appear to be about to come down from their peak. Our big hot spots are 10-14 days behind them, so we may start flattening that curve fairly soon. 

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5 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I haven’t heard people advocating for 12-18 months of lockdown. I’ve heard people say we may not get completely “back to normal” for 12-18 months, but I don't think that means lockdown that entire time. 
 

Anyways, Italy got absolutely ravaged by this, but even they appear to be about to come down from their peak. Our big hot spots are 10-14 days behind them, so we may start flattening that curve fairly soon. 

Some people have (not necessarily here). Or have advocated for lockdowns followed by short relaxations followed by more lockdowns, which isn’t reasonable either. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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