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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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33 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

 

Holy +++++ing shit this is not good!!! This isn’t going to work guys. You flatten the curve with 5 months of lockdown, but once you relax things for one month it begins rising again requiring another two months of lock down. Rinse and repeat until a vaccine is found or until we get herd immunity. That could take two years. This is going to be a world war 3 causing depression.

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Upon seeing those graphs, my friend, ever the eternal optimist, responded by saying, "Hey - July looks GREAT!" 

Not to make bad news worse, but I read a report over the weekend in which it was reported they've observed and measured a reproduction number of 3.5 in person-to-person transmissions, which is more than 50% greater than the R0 used in that model run. That would increase the magnitude of those intermittent peaks.

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2 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

I hope that study is very, very wrong. If not, Big Pharma needs to come through in a Manhattan project style big way the first time around.

They’re already working on anti-viral treatments.  My guess is they find something that successful in most patients within a month and the FDA fast tracks it to approval, other consequences be damned. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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1 hour ago, ridgeview2 said:

I'm just angry that we've known about this virus since December and did absolutely nothing about it. I remember being in my classroom reading a news story on it the first week back from winter break. Imagine where we would be if we had a 3 month head start to get in front of it.   

I’m angry that I have a cough and a wife at high risk and I can’t get tested.  

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1 minute ago, mugtang said:

They’re already working on anti-viral treatments.  My guess is they find something that successful in most patients within a month and the FDA fast tracks it to approval, other consequences be damned. 

Sounds like this is what leads to the zombie apocalypse.

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Things are never as bad as they seem; things are never as good as they seem.

3 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

I hope that study is very, very wrong. If not, Big Pharma needs to come through in a Manhattan project style big way the first time around.

I hold out hope and have faith in our innate capacity to engineer solutions to incredibly complex problems. But prepare for the worst case scenario, as always.

 

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6 hours ago, Bob said:

68,000 people died in Italy from the flu in 2016-2017. That's 500 per day during flu season. Someone let me know when we get there with coronavirus. Apparently dying from corona virus is worse than dying from the flu. :shrug:

48 minutes ago, NMpackalum said:

Italy gets hit hard with these epidemics. There were estimated 68 thousand deaths to the flu in the winters of 2013-14 and 2016-17. 

That 68,000 number is getting misquoted a lot. It does not help the conversation when numbers are not used correctly.

According to the study everyone is hearing, Italy saw 68,000 deaths starting in the 2013-14 flu season then going to and including the 2016-17 flu season. That is 4 flu seasons, not one or two.

Italy's per flu season death breakdown is:

  • 2013/14: 7,027
  • 2014/15: 20,259
  • 2015/16: 15,801
  • 2016/17: 24,981

Source study:  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

For comparison, currently Italy has reported 2,503 coronavirus deaths as of today with more unfortunately to come especially if their medical system reaches capacity and they start triaging/prioritizing patients as is being reportedly planned. Additionally the coronavirus cases and deaths are on top of the numbers from the current flu season.

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6 minutes ago, mugtang said:

They’re already working on anti-viral treatments.  My guess is they find something that successful in most patients within a month and the FDA fast tracks it to approval, other consequences be damned. 

hope so.  China is actually using immune suppressing drugs for arthritis with some success.  preventing a cytokine storm in the lungs

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6 minutes ago, Mano said:

Sounds like this is what leads to the zombie apocalypse.

If we all turn into brain eating zombies is that really any different than what currently happens with today’s youth? 

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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2 minutes ago, Billings said:

hope so.  China is actually using immune suppressing drugs for arthritis with some success.  preventing a cytokine storm in the lungs

I’ve also read other thing have worked in the seriously ill patients but don’t remember the names of the drugs. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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1 minute ago, mugtang said:

If we all turn into brain eating zombies is that really any different than what currently happens with today’s youth? 

We are getting old my friend.

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11 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Upon seeing those graphs, my friend, ever the eternal optimist, responded by saying, "Hey - July looks GREAT!" 

Not to make bad news worse, but I read a report over the weekend in which it was reported they've observed and measured a reproduction number of 3.5 in person-to-person transmissions, which is more than 50% greater than the R0 used in that model run. That would increase the magnitude of those intermittent peaks.

At that rate we can’t control it. We’ll get herd immunity a lot sooner or...it’s going to take some serious despotism under that model to keep flattening the curve. Either way, this is over sooner rather than later.

I don’t see an American populace going quietly when the army is called in to enforce it. Remember that the Spanish flu was the exception to successfully evolved viruses. Most of the time, the less vicious a pathogen is the more it has an opportunity to find new hosts. But in the war zone it was different. Everybody got a slight Spanish flu, but since everyone had it everyone stayed on the front lines. Once it mutated to be a much more vicious viral infection you couldn’t leave the soldiers on their backs at the front lines. Once removed from the front, the virus had a world of new hosts it could reproduce in.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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20 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

I’m angry that I have a cough and a wife at high risk and I can’t get tested.  

Same with my fiancee and I, we both have coughs and her mother has COPD. 

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6 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

At that rate we can’t control it. We’ll get herd immunity a lot sooner or...it’s going to take some serious despotism under that model to keep flattening the curve. Either way, this is over sooner rather than later.

I don’t see an American populace going quietly when the army is called in to enforce it. Remember that the Spanish flu was the exception to successfully evolved viruses. Most of the time, the less vicious a pathogen is the more it has an opportunity to find new hosts. But in the war zone it was different. Everybody got a slight Spanish flu, but since everyone had it everyone stayed on the front lines. Once it mutated to be a much more vicious viral infection you couldn’t leave the soldiers on their backs at the front lines. Once removed from the front, the virus had a world of new hosts it could reproduce in.

Maybe this is why they want to build hospitals and shit?  You give the government 30 days to build enough temporary infrastructure to care for those that will become critically ill and say phuck it let it loose after slowing it down. 

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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South Korea seems to have weathered the storm already. American basketball players will be arriving in SK next week to play in the KBL. It seems with enough masks, latex gloves, sanitary precautions and mass resting we could get back to our lives much sooner than than most projections.

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1 minute ago, nmlongbow said:

South Korea seems to have weathered the storm already. American basketball players will be arriving in SK next week to play in the KBL. It seems with enough masks, latex gloves, sanitary precautions and mass resting we could get back to our lives much sooner than than most projections.

The biggest critical dependency for this strategy to work effectively is timing. ROK jumped on this early; we're still lagging behind and trying to get in front of it.

From today's NYT:

Screen-Shot-2020-03-17-at-11-02-52-PM.pn

Screen-Shot-2020-03-17-at-11-03-30-PM.pn

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NM has tested 1720 people with 23 confirmed cases. Like everywhere else we just need to be able to test more people much more quickly. This should get better in the coming weeks. In the mean time masks, gloves and cleaning agents are easy to produce and are much cheaper than spending trillions on getting us by for a few months.

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5 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

 

Holy +++++ing shit this is not good!!! This isn’t going to work guys. You flatten the curve with 5 months of lockdown, but once you relax things for one month it begins rising again requiring another two months of lock down. Rinse and repeat until a vaccine is found or until we get herd immunity. That could take two years. This is going to be a world war 3 causing depression.

DB0-F9-D07-8538-4149-9636-98-F918-AEE0-A

We need some kind of vax quickly,even if it isn't perfect.

 

My guess is the will go the plasma antibody route initially while they continue working on other options.

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One of the Final Five..........

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