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thedude15

Officially on the 30-1 or 31-1 SDSU train now

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Just now, East Coast Aztec said:

Orange slices and quality losses for everyone!  :friends:

Nah I don't believe in quality losses, as I alluded to above. I do believe in playing great teams. You play the top 10, even as #1 you gotta expect some losses (and if they're not happening your sked is almost certainly softer than you thought when you set it up), and early season losses teach you a lot. Quite a bit of virtue there. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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2 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Nah I don't believe in quality losses, as I alluded to above. I do believe in playing great teams. You play the top 10, even as #1 you gotta expect some losses (and if they're not happening your sked is almost certainly softer than you thought when you set it up),

I actually don't disagree with you, it was more of a joke, since a lot of people are saying "quality loss" on cbb/reddit

 

But this comment

Quote

and early season losses teach you a lot. Quite a bit of virtue there. 

is subject to actually learning from it, and even then doesn't do much if you are looking at numbers or metrics.  It is more of a projection (or a hope)

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The only thing a quality loss does for you is not Be as negative as a loss that wasn't the quality loss. It does nothing for your resume except demonstrates you scheduled the game because the worst team in the nation would lose to them. What did you do was so special? So stop listing games that they lost. If team A plays #28 And wins and team B plays #28 And #27 And splits, team A should be ranked higher based only on those facts. If all those games are 50/50, A has a 50% chance of that record and B has a 75% chance of that record or better.

SDSU has had 5 upper half NCAA berths in a row.

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If every game was 50/50, the chance of wining 3 out of 3 is 1 in 8 while winning 3 out of 4 is a 1 in 4 chance. That means it is twice as unlikely to win 3 in a row....that is why SDSU's 3-0 is twice as good as Gonzaga's 3-1. Simple statistics.

SDSU has had 5 upper half NCAA berths in a row.

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Creighton and Iowa both had impressive Quad 1 wins last night. They are both moving on up the rankings. Utah State is 2 positions from being Quad 1 when played at their place. Michigan had a bad loss at home. A reminder that all the numbers are in flux.

SDSU has had 5 upper half NCAA berths in a row.

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I think there’s a real possibility that the Aztecs go undefeated or into the tournament with only one loss. I’m much less optimistic about getting beyond the Sweet 16, though, without Nathan Mensah. Since he’s been out we’ve been out rebounded 5 out of 7 games. Big drop off in bench production with Mitchell starting. Bench scoring went from 25.2 down to 9.3. Opponent bench scoring remained steady at 18. None of our bench players now have a +/- better than zero. These weaknesses are masked by the generally low level of the conference this year, but they’ll be apparent in March. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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32 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

I think there’s a real possibility that the Aztecs go undefeated or into the tournament with only one loss. I’m much less optimistic about getting beyond the Sweet 16, though, without Nathan Mensah. Since he’s been out we’ve been out rebounded 5 out of 7 games. Big drop off in bench production with Mitchell starting. Bench scoring went from 25.2 down to 9.3. Opponent bench scoring remained steady at 18. None of our bench players now have a +/- better than zero. These weaknesses are masked by the generally low level of the conference this year, but they’ll be apparent in March. 

Even with Mensah, he would probably be coming off the bench as his conditioning would have to be compromised.  The hope is to have our bench and young guys improve over the next 5 weeks

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1 hour ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Even with Mensah, he would probably be coming off the bench as his conditioning would have to be compromised.  The hope is to have our bench and young guys improve over the next 5 weeks

I think it’s very doubtful he returns this year. It’s a serious issue. Usually they want no contact for a minimum of three months. It can be career ending. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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My biggest concern with regards to our adjustment to playing without Nathan has been twofold: that with Matt having to guard other team's PFs, we're giving up not just size in the low post (and the risk of Matt getting in early foul trouble) but bench production as well. We had the luxury of bringing a starter off the bench as a 6th man; now we don't. And the numbers bare this out, as per the article in the U-T today:

Quote

 

"With Mensah playing this season: plus-7.3 rebounding margin.

Without him: plus-1.

The Aztecs were outrebounded only once in 13 games with Mensah. They’ve lost the battle of the boards four times in the seven games since, including three of the last four. Wyoming had a 27-24 edge Tuesday after being outrebounded in its each of its first eight conference games by an average of 11.9.

The Cowboys also rank dead last in Div. I in offensive rebounding percentage (the amount of your missed shots you get back) and had eight offensive boards. None, notably, came with Arop in the game.

***

Another domino to tumble since Mensah was sidelined is bench scoring, with Matt Mitchell and his 11.3 points per game now in the starting lineup.

Tuesday was the fourth straight time SDSU’s bench was outscored by its counterparts and the fifth time in seven games with Mitchell starting; it happened just twice in 13 games when he wasn’t. It was particularly evident against Wyoming when the second unit finally subbed in with 11:48 left in the first half.

The score at the time: 18-6.

The score when the starters returned less than four minutes later: 20-15."

 

Link

I get Dutch's conundrum - Nathan was good enough to start. Obviously, coach thinks the skill gap between Matt and the next man is great enough to keep Matt in the starting five. Hopefully, until such time as Nathan is ready to return to the lineup, either AG, Nolan, or Joel will continue to improve to the point that the skill gap is negligible (enough) to start one of them over Matt and return to having two bigs starting with a starter coming off the bench.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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Aztecs now 4-0 In Q1 games.  Playing 4 50/50 games gives you a 1 in 16 of winning all 4. Going 3-1 is a 1 in 4 chance. 4-0 is 4 times as unlikely as 3-1. That is why Aztecs are #1 In NET. 

SDSU has had 5 upper half NCAA berths in a row.

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21 hours ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

I think there’s a real possibility that the Aztecs go undefeated or into the tournament with only one loss. 

Given ESPN's predicted probability of winning each game, they have about a 54% chance of winning out or dropping 1 game until the tournament.

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