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thedude15

Officially on the 30-1 or 31-1 SDSU train now

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1 hour ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I'm with Happy. Look at just Quadrant 1 and 2 games. Gonzaga's quad 2 win is arguably SDSU's best Quad 1 game.  BYU home vs. away. Gonzaga has knocked off two top 16 teams (one on the road) while SDSU hasn't played a top 25 team.

Gonzaga:

Quad 1

W @ #11 Arizona

W vs. #16 Oregon (neutral)

W @ #47 Washington

L vs. #29 Michigan (neutral)

Quad 2

W vs. #37 BYU

SDSU:

Quad 1

W vs. #27 Iowa (neutral)

W vs. #33 Creighton

W @ #37 BYU

Quad 2

W vs. #79 Utah

W vs. #83 USU

W @ #102 CSU

Can't argue the NET numbers nor the quad parsing, and based on those alone I would choose Gonzaga if I were on the committee. 

Which begs the question then - why would Gonzaga's SoS and SoR and (most importantly) NET all rank below the Aztecs? I'll give you a hint: the answer lies within this thread. ;)

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Now... while there is a reason we would be worthy of a 1-seed should the committee meet today (and have a higher SoS and SoR than Gonzaga), predictive models project a 2-seed for the Aztecs and a 1-seed for Gonzaga come Selection Sunday.

In particular, Torvik's projected final NET ranking has the Zags as #1 in NET and a 1-seed (and us as #8 in NET and a 2-seed), and this is likely due to two factors:

1) Gonzaga plays more quality teams through the rest of its sked, which will be reflected in the metrics, and

2) we are probabilistically going to lose a game between now and the MWCT, and if we do, it will be a (far) worse loss than Gonzaga's. 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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1 hour ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I'm with Happy. Look at just Quadrant 1 and 2 games. Gonzaga's quad 2 win is arguably SDSU's best Quad 1 game.  BYU home vs. away. Gonzaga has knocked off two top 16 teams (one on the road) while SDSU hasn't played a top 25 team.

Gonzaga:

Quad 1

W @ #11 Arizona

W vs. #16 Oregon (neutral)

W @ #47 Washington

L vs. #29 Michigan (neutral)

Quad 2

W vs. #37 BYU

SDSU:

Quad 1

W vs. #27 Iowa (neutral)

W vs. #33 Creighton

W @ #37 BYU

Quad 2

W vs. #79 Utah

W vs. #83 USU

W @ #102 CSU

Not necessarily disagreeing with your conclusion, but Creighton and Utah were neutral and it was @ USU. 

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

No, but I am positing that SOR is. 

Regarding the underlined paragraph... english, please? :blink: Honestly Hap, Idk wtf you're trying to say here, let alone what obscure red herring-shaped point you're trying to make. 

As to your third question: yes, I am aware of that. Though as with the preceding paragraph Im not sure what your point is? :shrug:  As has been demonstrated above, a qualitative analysis also shows how much better the Aztec's resume is than Gonzaga's.

Isn't SOR just SOS*Winning percentage?

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

1) Gonzaga plays more quality teams through the rest of its sked, which will be reflected in the metrics, and

2) we are probabilistically going to lose a game between now and the MWCT, and if we do, it will be a (far) worse loss than Gonzaga's. 

Yup.  I would say Gonzaga probablistically loses a game too.  

GU has the following 6 top 100 NET games remaining:

Home and Away vs. #43 Saint Mary's

Away vs. #37 BYU

Away vs. #86 Santa Clara

Home and Away vs. #98 San Francisco.

San Diego State has only one top 100 NET game remaining:

Away vs. #83 Nevada

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20 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Isn't SOR just SOS*Winning percentage?

Here's espn's blurb on SOR: https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/125994/bpi-and-strength-of-record-what-are-they-and-how-are-they-derived

As for how it's implemented, you create some sort of power rating - it can be efficiency margin, Sagarin's predictor, Massey ratings, whatever (ESPN uses BPI obviously), as long as its quantitative ratings, not rankings - as long as you can generate a probability of a win between two teams.  Then you go down and find the 25th rated team (this has been empirically found to be right around where the bubble teams lie) and you find the power rating of that team.  Then you run through everyone's schedule, using the power rating of that 25th rated team summing the win probabilities until you have a predicted record.  You do that for every team and then you compare the predicted bubble team's W/L record with the actual W/L record.  Bart Torvik also does this (called WAB), except his power ratings are strictly efficiency based (T-Rank), unlike BPI.

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24 minutes ago, nielsbohr said:

Here's espn's blurb on SOR: https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/125994/bpi-and-strength-of-record-what-are-they-and-how-are-they-derived

As for how it's implemented, you create some sort of power rating - it can be efficiency margin, Sagarin's predictor, Massey ratings, whatever (ESPN uses BPI obviously), as long as its quantitative ratings, not rankings - as long as you can generate a probability of a win between two teams.  Then you go down and find the 25th rated team (this has been empirically found to be right around where the bubble teams lie) and you find the power rating of that team.  Then you run through everyone's schedule, using the power rating of that 25th rated team summing the win probabilities until you have a predicted record.  You do that for every team and then you compare the predicted bubble team's W/L record with the actual W/L record.  Bart Torvik also does this (called WAB), except his power ratings are strictly efficiency based (T-Rank), unlike BPI.

Got it. That's far more advanced than I thought it would be; I assumed it was just sos*winning record. Sorry @TheSanDiegan.

I still think Gonzaga has a better resume because the committee is going to see "beat oregon beat north carolina beat arizona" and get a massive hardon even if that was exactly as difficult as "beat iowa beat creighton beat BYU beat utah beat GCU (they still good...?). 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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1 hour ago, happycamper said:

Isn't SOR just SOS*Winning percentage?

Is it? If so, then shame on them for mailing it in. I would think MoV, Venue, and time-relevance would all factor into it as well - it's not a difficult thing to model. :shrug:

 

 

 

 

ETA: I see @nielsbohr did what we were too lazy to and actually go find their breakdown - it would appear it's as I thought it was.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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6 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Got it. That's far more advanced than I thought it would be; I assumed it was just sos*winning record. Sorry @TheSanDiegan.

I still think Gonzaga has a better resume because the committee is going to see "beat oregon beat north carolina beat arizona" and get a massive hardon even if that was exactly as difficult as "beat iowa beat creighton beat BYU beat utah beat GCU (they still good...?). 

No worries - as per my last post, I didn't know for certain myself and was going off of assumption.

As per the question as to who has the better resume, I think the subjective qualitative component would most likely agree, as both Palm and Lunardi have both the Aztecs and Zags as 1-seeds, but keep the Zags in the West bracket.

While I maintain we're worthy of a 1-seed (I think that's what kicked off this whole sidebar), as per my original take, I rather be a 2-seed in the West than a 1-seed in a different bracket.

 

giphy.gif

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Just now, happycamper said:

Got it. That's far more advanced than I thought it would be; I assumed it was just sos*winning record. Sorry @TheSanDiegan.

I still think Gonzaga has a better resume because the committee is going to see "beat oregon beat north carolina beat arizona" and get a massive hardon even if that was exactly as difficult as "beat iowa beat creighton beat BYU beat utah beat GCU (they still good...?). 

Beating Arizona at McHale is a big deal.  Plus, Gonzaga is proven - proven program, proven coach and had one of the best teams in the nation last year.  They're really good so it shouldn't/wouldn't be an outrage if they get a #1 over an undefeated SDSU.  Wichita State went in undefeated in 13-14 and got a #2 seed.

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1 hour ago, Del Scorcho said:

I think its healthy to have a loss late in the season.  It relieves pressure of trying to remain perfect

If it was the MWC of 9 or 10 years ago, I would agree with you. But now, it would be pretty devastating to their ranking IMO.

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4 hours ago, nielsbohr said:

Beating Arizona at McHale is a big deal.  Plus, Gonzaga is proven - proven program, proven coach and had one of the best teams in the nation last year.  They're really good so it shouldn't/wouldn't be an outrage if they get a #1 over an undefeated SDSU.  Wichita State went in undefeated in 13-14 and got a #2 seed.

Undefeated Wichita State was a 1-Seed in 2014 by the way.

SMOKE 'EM IF YOU'VE GOT 'EM!

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20 and oh my !

You gotta love it,. Babeeeee !

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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23 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I'm with Happy. Look at just Quadrant 1 and 2 games. Gonzaga's quad 2 win is arguably SDSU's best Quad 1 game.  BYU home vs. away. Gonzaga has knocked off two top 16 teams (one on the road) while SDSU hasn't played a top 25 team.

Gonzaga:

Quad 1

W @ #11 Arizona

W vs. #16 Oregon (neutral)

W @ #47 Washington

L vs. #29 Michigan (neutral)

Quad 2

W vs. #37 BYU

SDSU:

Quad 1

W vs. #27 Iowa (neutral)

W vs. #33 Creighton

W @ #37 BYU

Quad 2

W vs. #79 Utah

W vs. #83 USU

W @ #102 CSU

You listed Michigan. Again, there is no virtue in losing to a great team.

SDSU has had 5 upper half NCAA berths in a row.

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36 minutes ago, AztecBill said:

You listed Michigan. Again, there is no virtue in losing to a great team.

Well, yes, there is. A lot of virtue, in fact. Is it a resume booster? probably not. Is it a good thing to have happen? Yeah. It is. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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