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Nike ShotTracker Basketball a dud ?

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https://shottracker.com/fans

 

Aztec and Fresno players not thrilled. Stats back them up. Turnovers, lower shooting percentages, etc.

 

"The early story, though, wasn’t about players but the ball. SDSU used the new Nike model with a tracking sensor implanted to conform with the Mountain West’s contract with ShotTracker, a statistics system designed to provide real-time analytics to teams, TV and fans.

The Aztecs noticeably struggled to shoot and control the slicker ball in the two previous Div. I games it was used, and that continued in the first half Wednesday. At the first media timeout, the teams had combined to shoot 1 of 8 with eight turnovers.

At halftime, they were a combined 4 of 21 behind the 3-point arc. They finished 7 of 32.

“No disrespect, but it’s horrible,” Malachi Flynn said of the new ball, which has shallower and narrower grooves than the older model used last season.

“Basketball is basketball,” Mitchell said. “But at the same time, I feel there could be a better ball.”

Flynn shot three air balls in the second half."

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2020-01-01/san-diego-state-aztecs-basketball-fresno-state-bulldogs-mountain-west-nathan-mensah

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"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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Here's what I've compiled.  Please correct if wrong.

Nike: SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Boise State, AFA, Utah State, Fresno State

Adidas: Nevada, San Jose State, Wyoming, Fresno State

Under Armor: Colorado State

In our home games against San Jose and Fresno we had the lowest EFG of the year, 0.36 (San Jose) and 5th lowest (Fresno).  It'd be interesting to see if there are any statistical differences in shooting when looking at a larger selection of games.  Although it's not totally clear how to design that measure.  Maybe measure EFG of all home teams using the Nike ball vs. home teams with non-Nike ball, like an independent sample t-test over all the teams in the league but adjusted for level of competition?

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7 hours ago, nielsbohr said:

Here's what I've compiled.  Please correct if wrong.

Nike: SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Boise State, AFA, Utah State

Adidas: Nevada, Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming

Under Armor: Colorado State

In our home games against San Jose and Fresno we had the lowest EFG of the year, 0.36 (San Jose) and 5th lowest (Fresno).  It'd be interesting to see if there are any statistical differences in shooting when looking at a larger selection of games.  Although it's not totally clear how to design that measure.  Maybe measure EFG of all home teams using the Nike ball vs. home teams with non-Nike ball, like an independent sample t-test over all the teams in the league but adjusted for level of competition?

We're still with Nike until the 2020-21 athletics season.

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57 minutes ago, 4UNLV said:

So who all has used this ball so far besides the Aztecs?

I just saw a two paragraph piece in a game article. Pulled a quick Google and no info on the problems. Just articles about the technology.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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3 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

So who all has used this ball so far besides the Aztecs?

The SDTrib said the ball was used in their last two Div1 games. If those were homies, that would be Cal Poly on 12/28, a 73-57 win. And against Sparty on 12/8.  A 59-57 win.

  Both teams one would expect the Aztecs to perform better against.

A quick glance at the fg% and 3point shooting were down for both teams, but the Aztec defense does that to everyone.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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5 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

So who all has used this ball so far besides the Aztecs?

In today's U-T article ("It's Next Mensah Up:D), Zeigler states that in addition to us, the same shitty Nike ball is being used by Utah St and you guys at a minimum.

I would further surmise @nielsbohr's list is correct as I can't imagine Nike would have two grades of chipped balls they are supplying. :shrug:

Without specifying whether the comment refers just to the Aztecs or to other teams as well, he states,

Quote

"For the conference's Nike schools, the chip was implanted into a new model of basketball that has narrower and shallower grooves than itsolder models, along with a noticeably different texture.

The players, almost to a man, hate it."

:hmmm:WTF Hair. WTF ShotWhacker. WTF Nike.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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Seems this is a Nike issue. SDTrib had some follow up on it in their postgame report.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2020-01-02/sdsu-aztecs-basketball-3-thoughts-fresno-state-bulldogs-nathan-mensah-nike-ball-shottracker-mountain-west

 

The Trib question as tho why the schools do not use the old balls seems very valid to me. It is the home teams.choice as to which balls to use.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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The “Ball” was used in last night’s game.

“The controversial Nike ball with a ShotTracker chip implanted was used because Utah State, like SDSU, is sponsored by Nike.”

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2020-01-04/sdsu-aztecs-basketball-utah-state-aggies-neemias-queta-malachi-flynn-mountain-west

Given their stats last night (50% from the field & 45% from 3) it would seem the Aztecs are getting used to it.

SMOKE 'EM IF YOU'VE GOT 'EM!

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9 hours ago, albert mac meda said:

The “Ball” was used in last night’s game.

“The controversial Nike ball with a ShotTracker chip implanted was used because Utah State, like SDSU, is sponsored by Nike.”

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2020-01-04/sdsu-aztecs-basketball-utah-state-aggies-neemias-queta-malachi-flynn-mountain-west

Given their stats last night (50% from the field & 45% from 3) it would seem the Aztecs are getting used to it.

The baskets were bigger.

This could be a statistical anomaly or it could mean they are adjusting to the  new ball.  Which could create an advantage for the Nike teams.

Either way, I cannot for the life of me understand why leagues do not standardize their balls and manufacturers. Let's face it, Nike ball is different than a Wilson or other ball.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/3/2020 at 11:41 AM, nielsbohr said:

 

476094-sd-sp-aztecs-calpoly-hp-03.JPG

That ball looks as smooth as a volleyball instead of a normal basketball with pimples.  So yeah, I can see why the players say it's slick. 

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On 1/2/2020 at 10:36 PM, nielsbohr said:

Here's what I've compiled.  Please correct if wrong.

Nike: SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Boise State, AFA, Utah State, Fresno State

Adidas: Nevada, San Jose State, Wyoming, Fresno State

Under Armor: Colorado State

In our home games against San Jose and Fresno we had the lowest EFG of the year, 0.36 (San Jose) and 5th lowest (Fresno).  It'd be interesting to see if there are any statistical differences in shooting when looking at a larger selection of games.  Although it's not totally clear how to design that measure.  Maybe measure EFG of all home teams using the Nike ball vs. home teams with non-Nike ball, like an independent sample t-test over all the teams in the league but adjusted for level of competition?

So I did this and have been watching the results over the last few days.  When I first started it, there was a statistically significant difference in EFG between Nike ball home games and non-Nike ball home games.  But the p-value is now hovering right under 10% - double the 0.5 that is normally considered 'statistically significant'.  The difference in means though is quite large, meaning that teams shooting the Nike ball are seeing a fairly large drop in shooting percentages - it's just not quite statistically significant enough (yet).  I created a jupyter notebook and I just run the script every morning to pump out the latest stats.  Here's where I put the report: http://www.hoopsci.com/2020/01/08/is-there-a-problem-with-the-mwcs-new-nike-ball/ 

Here are some excerpts of the EFG comparison:

Nike School Home Game Stats Summary

 
Metric Non-Conf Mean Conf Mean p-value Significant
tov_pct 0.182 0.148 0.016 *
2pp 0.544 0.511 0.270  
3pp 0.357 0.305 0.070  
efg 0.549 0.493 0.019 *
adj_tov 0.040 -0.091 0.108  
adj_2pp 0.076 -0.013 0.148  
adj_3pp -0.007 -0.077 0.429  
adj_efg 0.051 -0.033 0.093  
 

Measure: Adjusted EFG

 

Non-Conference Games

 
date team_name result opponent_name adj_efg Opp Mean EFG Allowed
2019-11-05 San Diego State W Texas Southern -0.153 0.533
2019-11-05 UNLV W Purdue Fort Wayne 0.038 0.562
2019-11-05 Utah State W Montana State -0.097 0.480
2019-11-07 Air Force L Idaho State -0.010 0.534
2019-11-08 Utah State W Weber State -0.038 0.620
2019-11-09 Air Force W Texas State 0.231 0.474
2019-11-09 UNLV L Kansas State -0.039 0.422
2019-11-09 New Mexico W CSU Northridge 0.142 0.569
2019-11-10 Fresno State W Winthrop 0.183 0.496
2019-11-12 Utah State W Denver 0.065 0.547
2019-11-13 San Diego State W Grand Canyon 0.537 0.422
2019-11-13 New Mexico W Green Bay 0.005 0.543
2019-11-15 Boise State L UC Irvine -0.283 0.481
2019-11-15 Utah State W North Carolina A&T 0.014 0.597
2019-11-16 New Mexico W McNeese -0.033 0.561
2019-11-18 UNLV W Abil Christian 0.068 0.562
2019-11-18 Utah State W UTSA 0.020 0.517
2019-11-20 UNLV L Texas State -0.117 0.474
2019-11-20 Boise State W BYU -0.217 0.555
2019-11-22 San Diego State W Long Island University 0.111 0.497
2019-11-23 UNLV L SMU -0.061 0.502
2019-11-25 San Diego State W Tennessee State -0.101 0.457
2019-11-26 UNLV W Jackson State 0.099 0.593
2019-11-29 Boise State W UNC Wilmington -0.117 0.603
2019-12-01 Air Force W Jackson State 0.169 0.593
2019-12-01 New Mexico W Montana -0.019 0.500
2019-12-14 New Mexico W New Mexico St -0.156 0.545
2019-12-14 Boise State W Alabama State 0.225 0.582
2019-12-17 New Mexico W Grand Canyon 0.608 0.422
2019-12-18 UNLV L Pacific 0.176 0.425
2019-12-20 Fresno State W IUPUI 0.017 0.547
2019-12-21 UNLV W Robert Morris 0.098 0.529
2019-12-21 Air Force L Drake 0.219 0.561
2019-12-22 New Mexico W Houston Baptist 0.167 0.589
2019-12-23 Fresno State L San Francisco -0.042 0.548
2019-12-28 Boise State W CSU Northridge 0.158 0.569
2019-12-28 UNLV W E Michigan -0.217 0.529
2019-12-28 San Diego State W Cal Poly -0.136 0.540
2019-12-28 Fresno State L UC Riverside 0.111 0.450
2019-12-29 New Mexico W UC Davis -0.190 0.572
2019-12-31 Air Force W UC Riverside 0.647 0.450
 

Conference Games

 
date team_name result opponent_name adj_efg Opp Mean EFG Allowed
2019-12-04 New Mexico W Boise State -0.136 0.619
2019-12-04 Fresno State L UNLV -0.081 0.535
2019-12-07 Boise State W Colorado State -0.011 0.522
2019-12-07 Air Force L Nevada 0.021 0.525
2019-12-07 Utah State W Fresno State -0.121 0.436
2019-12-08 San Diego State W San José St -0.354 0.553
2020-01-01 San Diego State W Fresno State 0.099 0.436
2020-01-01 UNLV W Utah State -0.107 0.550
2020-01-01 Boise State W Wyoming -0.151 0.497
2020-01-04 UNLV W Air Force -0.042 0.542
2020-01-04 Utah State L San Diego State 0.127 0.427
2020-01-04 Fresno State W San Jose State 0.094 0.553
2020-01-07 New Mexico W Fresno State 0.245 0.436
2020-01-07 Air Force W Utah State -0.016 0.550
2020-01-08 Boise State W UNLV -0.066 0.535
 
Non-Conference Games  adj_efg =  0.051 +/- 0.202 (Count: 41)
Conference Games      adj_efg = -0.033 +/- 0.138 (Count: 15)
Difference            adj_efg = -0.084 +/- 0.048
adj_efg t-test t-statistic: -1.724, p-value: 0.093
 
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If all D1 games are looked at, Utah State is shooting 36% from 3 with the old ball and 24.5% with the new Nike ball (home conference games and away conf games against Nike schools).

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A new SDTrib update claims five of eleven schools MW - Nike ShotTracker schools not using the data as it is inaccurate. 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2020-01-15/sdsu-aztecs-basketball-3-thoughts-fresno-state-bulldogs-malachi-flynn-mountain-west-nike-ball

And the players dislike the ball as well.

'During SDSU’s game at Utah State, an Aggies player was overheard asking his SDSU counterparts: “Do you guys hate this ball as much as we do?” '

 

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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