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Fed study finds Trump tariffs backfired

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I'm shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.

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President Donald Trump’s strategy to use import tariffs to protect and boost U.S. manufacturers backfired and led to job losses and higher prices, according to a Federal Reserve study released this week.

“We find that the 2018 tariffs are associated with relative reductions in manufacturing employment and relative increases in producer prices,” concluded Fed economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, in an academic paper.

While the tariffs did reduce competition for some industries in the domestic U.S. market, this was more than offset by the effects of rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs, the study found.

“While the longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here, the results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector,” the study said.

Tit-for-tat trade retaliation is an idea best relegated to the past, given the presence of globally interconnected supply chains, the Fed researchers found.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-study-finds-trump-tariffs-backfired-2019-12-27

oh my god wow GIF

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Not a single poster on this board supports tariffs as a long term strategy.  If doing them short term gets the US better and more fair trade deals in the long term then they will have served their true intended purpose (not this TDS spin) and be worth it.  Let’s wait and see what new trade deals are agreed upon before making a final judgment here.  That’s the true measure of success.  

v0icAvfW.jpg

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I don’t know about not a single poster. We do have some Warren supporters that want third world countries to have the same standards for their poor workers as we do our middle class.

But yes, the tariffs were always a dumb way to go about this.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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15 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Not a single poster on this board supports tariffs as a long term strategy.  If doing them short term gets the US better and more fair trade deals in the long term then they will have served their true intended purpose (not this TDS spin) and be worth it.  Let’s wait and see what new trade deals are agreed upon before making a final judgment here.  That’s the true measure of success.  

Speaking of TDS spin...

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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Just now, NorCalCoug said:

Ditto

TDSDS Patient Zero speaks

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Not a single poster on this board supports tariffs as a long term strategy.  If doing them short term gets the US better and more fair trade deals in the long term then they will have served their true intended purpose (not this TDS spin) and be worth it.  Let’s wait and see what new trade deals are agreed upon before making a final judgment here.  That’s the true measure of success.  

Yeah, don't you just hate straw man arguments? :lol:

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1 minute ago, renoskier said:

Yeah, don't you just hate straw man arguments? :lol:

Nah, I’m used to them on this board from you and others.  I love all the ad hominem attacks with no substance to refute my post from emotional cripples like you and yrf.  The TDS is strong with you guys. 

v0icAvfW.jpg

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12 minutes ago, easybronc said:

We are at full employment, GDP is growing, stock market at record highs and consumers are spending.  

Yeah, like these tariffs are really killing us.  :rolleyes:   

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-snowflakes-here-us-consumers-will-keep-the-economy-humming-through-2020-2019-12-28

Just because things are going well doesn’t mean they aren’t a dumb economic strategy, they’re still dumb. The economy is humming and we’re running trillion dollar deficits. Can’t wait for when the music stops.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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4 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Nah, I’m used to them on this board from you and others.  I love all the ad hominem attacks with no substance to refute my post from emotional cripples like you and yrf.  The TDS is strong with you guys. 

Pfffttt...this is weak sauce even for you :lol:

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5 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Just because things are going well doesn’t mean they aren’t a dumb economic strategy, they’re still dumb. The economy is humming and we’re running trillion dollar deficits. Can’t wait for when the music stops.

Agree with you.  The tariffs are nothing more than a bully tactic in an attempt to gain leverage in trade negotiations.  I wish they would’ve explored an alternative approach before going down this route but they didn’t.  I think that could have been effective with most outside of perhaps China.  Either way, the effectiveness of them should be measured against their intent.  Nobody expected tariffs to be a boon to the economy.  Their negative impacts are currently masked by a strong economy.  You’re 100% right about the music stopping.

v0icAvfW.jpg

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Real TDS is Trumpers believing that a fraud moron had all the silver bullet answers to complex and interconnected issues and could just snap his fingers and make it so. 

We need smart, considerate and wise people running the show. If someone is telling you how easy it is...run.

 

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19 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Agree with you.  The tariffs are nothing more than a bully tactic in an attempt to gain leverage in trade negotiations.  I wish they would’ve explored an alternative approach before going down this route but they didn’t.  I think that could have been effective with most outside of perhaps China.  Either way, the effectiveness of them should be measured against their intent.  Nobody expected tariffs to be a boon to the economy.  Their negative impacts are currently masked by a strong economy.  You’re 100% right about the music stopping.

I’d be slightly more amenable to the tactic if I felt he had any cogent idea of what the goal to achieve was. For instance, had he pursued some form of a TPP that really put the boot on the throat of the Chinese, two sticks and one carrot. Instead I feel whatever we end up with will be touted as the bestest, most greatestest trade deal of all time, whatever it’s actual merits. Oh well, he is what he is.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 hour ago, toonkee said:

Real TDS is Trumpers believing that a fraud moron had all the silver bullet answers to complex and interconnected issues and could just snap his fingers and make it so. 

We need smart, considerate and wise people running the show. If someone is telling you how easy it is...run.

 

Those kind of people don’t typically gravitate toward the cess pool of politics. 

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2 hours ago, easybronc said:

We are at full employment, GDP is growing, stock market at record highs and consumers are spending.  

Yeah, like these tariffs are really killing us.  :rolleyes:   

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-snowflakes-here-us-consumers-will-keep-the-economy-humming-through-2020-2019-12-28

You don't really know the full extent of some of the tariffs.  Take soybeans, as China gets more of them from South America now than it previously did because of the tariffs.  China's change  could shut out American farmers for decades.  When the trade war is over, China won't all of the sudden go back to America for soybeans right away.  

Consumers are also loading up on large amounts of debt so consumer spending is not truly up because of a strong economy.  

Does full employment really matter if a lot of people are under employed or making shit wages?

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Tariffs aren’t the answer but let’s not pretend other countries are predatory in their national policies to help their local populace.  We also shouldn’t pretend that those actions don’t drive support from the local population.  
 

I just returned from China where the NBA and Hong Kong was a topic of conversation.  Not a single mainland Chinese person supported Hong Kong.  All supported the current leader because their lives had improved so much over the past 20 years.   
 

The US employee has been poorly treated with jobs being outsourced.  Prices of items like food, healthcare, housing and education have risen sharply.   Trump is right to protect US workers from a rigged global game but his approach is wrong.  

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