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San Diego State surpassing kenpom expectations the most, all teams ranked

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1 hour ago, Jaredcg said:

It was a joke as the suds fanatic can’t understand the gist of an argument. Of course they’d be in today. The whole point was what another poster said. It’s great start, great looking team right now and still their margin for error is thin because of the MWC 

17 hours ago, Jaredcg said:

Very very little. Nevada went undefeated  in non-conference last year  with at the time seemed like big wins (BYU, USC, Utah, ASU) yet all those ended up Quad-2 NET wins. BYU is already trending that way for you guys. MWC is land mines that don’t help. Far from at large at the moment unfortunately.

Lulz. 

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17 hours ago, Ibanez said:

Akot. The Canadian who transferred from Arizona. But apparently BSU lost the appeal to get him on this season. Not sure how I didn't hear about that. Welp. That stings a bit.

This stings really bad. I believe it took us from upper part of the conference to mid to lower part of the conference. I'm still pissed at the ncaa. 

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13 minutes ago, Jalex4141 said:

This stings really bad. I believe it took us from upper part of the conference to mid to lower part of the conference. I'm still pissed at the ncaa.

Not really.  Whether you look at RPI, Elo, or net efficiency, there are two Mountain West divisions this year - Mountain and Valley:

RPI Rk Mountain West Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
    14  S. Diego St. 1-0   9-0  0.6605 99  0.5473
    56  Utah St. 1-0   8-1  0.5874 214  0.4785
    59  Nevada 0-0   6-3  0.5849 36  0.5919
    72  New Mexico 1-0   7-2  0.5744 127  0.5278
    83  Colorado St. 0-1   6-4  0.5683 79  0.5578
    88  Boise St. 0-1   3-3  0.5651 40  0.5868
    166  San Jose St. 0-1   2-6  0.4974 50  0.5798
    249  UNLV 1-0   4-6  0.4473 211  0.4804
    252  Air Force 1-0   4-5  0.4436 265  0.4497
    260  Wyoming 0-1   3-6  0.4391 152  0.5158
    319  Fresno St. 0-1   1-5  0.3809 229  0.4695

 

There's really no middle class.

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5 minutes ago, Jaredcg said:

What do you know a suds fanatic still doesn’t understand. 

Oh, I understand - you made (another) bad point, doubled down on stupid, and then back-peddled like a champ by claiming "it was a joke." You know - just like all bad posters do.

What I don't understand is whether you chose to name yourself after your favorite pedophile or if that's just a couple things you two happen to have in common. 

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On 12/6/2019 at 7:45 PM, Jaredcg said:

There was a lot of discussion about Nevada near the end of last season about if their resume really deserved an at large bid, because their “big wins” didn’t end up being that big, so far SDSU wins are starting to do the same. Creighton, BYU and Iowa are already starting to drop in Kenpom . That was a 4 loss Nevada team too. SDSU could end up in the same boat and I’ll be surprised if they end up with 4 or less losses. They are very good, but a ton of season left.

A few distinctions between Nevada's win against BYU last year and SDSU's win this year:

Nevada won at home against a BYU team that finished #86 in kenpom's ratings.

SDSU won on the road against a BYU team that is currently #54 in kenpom and played its first nine games without its best player (Yoeli Childs).  Since returning for the past two games, Yoeli is averaging 21 points and 10.5 rebounds per game (despite leaving the Utah game early with cramping).  BYU's rating is more likely to increase now that Yoeli's back as opposed to decrease.

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On 12/9/2019 at 5:19 PM, Pelado said:

A few distinctions between Nevada's win against BYU last year and SDSU's win this year:

Nevada won at home against a BYU team that finished #86 in kenpom's ratings.

SDSU won on the road against a BYU team that is currently #54 in kenpom and played its first nine games without its best player (Yoeli Childs).  Since returning for the past two games, Yoeli is averaging 21 points and 10.5 rebounds per game (despite leaving the Utah game early with cramping).  BYU's rating is more likely to increase now that Yoeli's back as opposed to decrease.

BYU reportedly up to 42 in kenpom after beating down Nevada.

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6 minutes ago, Pelado said:

BYU reportedly up to 42 in kenpom after beating down Nevada.

And up to 37 in Sagarin, where Iowa is now up to 31 (up to 30 in Kenpom) and Creighton is at 50, giving the Aztecs 3 Q1 wins now instead of two.

So much for some rando ped's prediction that SDSU's wins will lose value over time. :waiting:Lulz.

 

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Aztecs still with the #1-ranked tournament resume and SOR according to ESPN.

Projected final NET ranking: #7

Projected NCAA tournament seed: #3

Current Sagarin ranking: #10

Current RPI: #14

Current BPI: #23

 

And one of only five remaining unbeaten teams now in all D1 college hoops. :rock:

 

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19 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

Let’s not get too carried away. I read this AM that, had Flynn not hit that 3, it would have been the biggest upset in college history.  299-1. 

And arguably the worst loss in program history.

Yet the results - not just the W, but the near-loss to one of the worst teams in college hoops, on our own court - is already backed into the cake both quantitatively and qualitatively in the above rankings.

I agree about remaining tethered - we're just 1/3 of the way through along and grueling season - but let's not begin looking gift horses in the mouth, either. By all the metrics we are, at present, one of the best teams in college hoops. Full stop.

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12 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

And arguably the worst loss in program history.

Yet the results - not just the W, but the near-loss to one of the worst teams in college hoops, on our own court - is already backed into the cake both quantitatively and qualitatively in the above rankings.

I agree about remaining tethered - we're just 1/3 of the way through along and grueling season - but let's not begin looking gift horses in the mouth, either. By all the metrics we are, at present, one of the best teams in college hoops. Full stop.

I still refuse to get carried away with the metrics.  I am just enjoying the improved play.

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12 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

I still refuse to get carried away with the metrics.  I am just enjoying the improved play.

As I would expect most people to. My background is such that I'm habitually metrics- and data-driven. Thus I tend to see the world around me as interrelated data points, and especially in this day and age, have come to rely on objective metrics as an anchor in a pluralistic reality overly polluted with "alternative facts."

But I totally understand both the cautious optimism and the bevy of reasons Aztec fans have for enjoying this season to date, regardless of what they may be.

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9 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

As I would expect most people to. My background is such that I'm habitually metrics- and data-driven. Thus I tend to see the world around me as interrelated data points, and especially in this day and age, have come to rely on objective metrics as an anchor in a pluralistic reality overly polluted with "alternative facts."

But I totally understand both the cautious optimism and the bevy of reasons Aztec fans have for enjoying this season to date, regardless of what they may be.

I enjoy data and metrics, but for something as finicky as a bad day or a bad gameplan, sports is one of those data-filled activities where I only find myself disappointed if I put too much stock into it.

 

It also could be my lifelong misery as a Minnesota sports fan as well.

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40 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

I enjoy data and metrics, but for something as finicky as a bad day or a bad gameplan, sports is one of those data-filled activities where I only find myself disappointed if I put too much stock into it.

 

It also could be my lifelong misery as a Minnesota sports fan as well.

Idk if you access/read the U-T from your locale, but there was a fascinating bit in Zeigler's postgame article about how perfect our practices had been the two days running up to the game, and how it did not translate to gameday one iota. 

I know what you mean tho, being a San Diego sports fan and all. :shots:

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16 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Idk if you access/read the U-T from your locale, but there was a fascinating bit in Zeigler's postgame article about how perfect our practices had been the two days running up to the game, and how it did not translate to gameday one iota. 

I know what you mean tho, being a San Diego sports fan and all. 

Funny.  I think the announcers said something similar about Nevada's last couple of practices before the BYU game.  Beware of perfect practices!

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