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sdsuphilip4

San Diego State surpassing kenpom expectations the most, all teams ranked

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Still zero margin for error though.  Even one loss to a team not named Utah St and the whole thing comes crashing down.  BUT still a great season so far. Sunday @ noon against SJSU is a sellout.  The Bandwagon is picking up some steam.  It will be interesting to see how may Aztecs show up @ Staples in a couple weeks. I'll be there.  Price of entry for me is a day trip to the Garment District with Wifey.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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3 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Or how about the fact that (as per an AMesa thread), we're #1in Tovik's ELO ratings (link)... a lot for the Aztec Empire to be excited about these days. :rock:

Plus, KJ Feagin isn't playing his best and Trey Pulliam is still getting up to speed with the D1 game.  If these guys dial it up and Nathan Mensah goes beast mode, is it possible we are top-10ish?

 

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1 hour ago, SDSUfan said:

Still zero margin for error though.  Even one loss to a team not named Utah St and the whole thing comes crashing down.  BUT still a great season so far. Sunday @ noon against SJSU is a sellout.  The Bandwagon is picking up some steam.  It will be interesting to see how may Aztecs show up @ Staples in a couple weeks. I'll be there.  Price of entry for me is a day trip to the Garment District with Wifey.

This is just not true, SDSU absolutely has margin for error 

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52 minutes ago, sdsuphilip4 said:

This is just not true, SDSU absolutely has margin for error 

Very very little. Nevada went undefeated  in non-conference last year  with at the time seemed like big wins (BYU, USC, Utah, ASU) yet all those ended up Quad-2 NET wins. BYU is already trending that way for you guys. MWC is land mines that don’t help. Far from at large at the moment unfortunately.

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38 minutes ago, Jaredcg said:

Very very little. Nevada went undefeated  in non-conference last year  with at the time seemed like big wins (BYU, USC, Utah, ASU) yet all those ended up Quad-2 NET wins. BYU is already trending that way for you guys. MWC is land mines that don’t help. Far from at large at the moment unfortunately.

Did I miss something? Nevada easily made the tournament last year while being in the 20s in net. San Diego state will likely rank even higher unless a surprising competitive game with a SJSU when it open than Nevada finished last year in net and have had a very impressive start to the year. The at large is a lock barring a collapse

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35 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I think the conference is much improved this year. Last year it was two good teams and one mediocre team. This year we have two great teams and at least four good ones that could get hot. Not to mention our bottom clubs are improved even if it's not where we want them to be.

But come tourney time Nevaduh!, New Mexico, and Boise could be right up there. Pack has Alford, New Mexico has the most talent in the league, and Boise has two transfers about to become eligible.

Abu Kijab is one. Who is the other?

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2 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

Akot. The Canadian who transferred from Arizona. But apparently BSU lost the appeal to get him on this season. Not sure how I didn't hear about that. Welp. That stings a bit.

You must not follow Boise State basketball very close. 

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1 hour ago, Ibanez said:

I think the conference is much improved this year. Last year it was two good teams and one mediocre team. This year we have two great teams and at least four good ones that could get hot. Not to mention our bottom clubs are improved even if it's not where we want them to be.

But come tourney time Nevaduh!, New Mexico, and Boise could be right up there. Pack has Alford, New Mexico has the most talent in the league, and Boise has two transfers about to become eligible.

None of what you’re saying translates to multiple tournament bids. If anything just the opposite. If, for example, SDSU and USU play in the Championship game, and the loser of that game has a couple turd losses in conference play, only the winner is going. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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5 hours ago, sdsuphilip4 said:

Did I miss something? Nevada easily made the tournament last year while being in the 20s in net. San Diego state will likely rank even higher unless a surprising competitive game with a SJSU when it open than Nevada finished last year in net and have had a very impressive start to the year. The at large is a lock barring a collapse

There was a lot of discussion about Nevada near the end of last season about if their resume really deserved an at large bid, because their “big wins” didn’t end up being that big, so far SDSU wins are starting to do the same. Creighton, BYU and Iowa are already starting to drop in Kenpom . That was a 4 loss Nevada team too. SDSU could end up in the same boat and I’ll be surprised if they end up with 4 or less losses. They are very good, but a ton of season left.

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5 hours ago, sdsuphilip4 said:

This is just not true, SDSU absolutely has margin for error 

You may be right. I've sat at too many NIT games to have any confidence. I personally enjoy NIT games Some of the most memorable games were NIT; St Mary's, Kansas St. ,Georgia Tech but that's not the goal.  I'm gun shy at this point.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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6 hours ago, Jaredcg said:

Very very little. Nevada went undefeated  in non-conference last year  with at the time seemed like big wins (BYU, USC, Utah, ASU) yet all those ended up Quad-2 NET wins. BYU is already trending that way for you guys. MWC is land mines that don’t help. Far from at large at the moment unfortunately.

This is categorically false. The Aztecs are - at the moment - a top 25 tam by any and every metric, a top 20 by many, and by some (e.g., SOR, ELO, T-Rank, et al) a top 5 team. If the selection committee were to meet tomorrow, the Aztecs would have an at large bid and be anywhere between a 3 and a 7 seed.

Of course, as has been alluded to, this can change. If the best teams we've beat OOC shit the bed going forward, if we start barely beating the shitshow of clown cars we should otherwise be curb stomping, or if - God forbid - we lose at home to a middling, middle-of-the-road MWC squad shooting all the way for CBI potential, our polish will tarnish rather quickly.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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33 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

This is categorically false. The Aztecs are - at the moment - a top 25 tam by any and every metric, a top 20 by many, and by some (e.g., SOR, ELO, T-Rank, et al) a top 5 team. If the selection committee were to meet tomorrow, the Aztecs would have an at large bid and be anywhere between a 3 and a 7 seed.

Of course, as has been alluded to, this can change. If the best teams we've beat OOC shit the bed going forward, if we start barely beating the shitshow of clown cars we should otherwise be curb stomping, or if - God forbid - we lose to a middling, middle-of-the-road MWC squad shooting all the way for CBI potential, our polish will tarnish rather quickly.

If you’re going to nitpick. This whole post is categorically false because “at the moment” the most important resume tool is not available. NET rankings haven’t been released yet. It’s possible SDSU has 3 QUAD 1 wins it’s possible they have zero. If the committee met tomorrow no team would have a NET resume to review.

Bottomline great record for SDSU, team is looking great. However, the margin for error is still thin, 3 wins will only take you so far when land minds are plentiful in the MWC. This goes for all teams in the MWC until more teams start doing well in OOC.

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3 minutes ago, Jaredcg said:

If you’re going to nitpick. This whole post is categorically false because “at the moment” the most important resume tool is not available. NET rankings haven’t been released yet. It’s possible SDSU has 3 QUAD 1 wins it’s possible they have zero. If the committee met tomorrow no team would have a NET resume to review.

Bottomline great record for SDSU, team is looking great. However, the margin for error is still thin, 3 wins will only take you so far when land minds are plentiful in the MWC. This goes for all teams in the MWC until more teams start doing well in OOC.

While the NCAA has yet to release their NET rankings, based on the NET formula estimated using the moving rankings from last year (this would not be very difficult to do with the dataset available following last season), we are projected - at the moment - to have a final net ranking of six. Yeah, six:

Screen-Shot-2019-12-06-at-9-57-28-PM.png

Link

And ESPN has us - at the moment - as having the second best tournament resume in all of college hoops.

Screen-Shot-2019-12-06-at-10-01-16-PM.pn

Link

So, to recap: At the moment - your criteria, not mine - the Aztecs are objectively not only a sure bet but a high seed at that. Sorry no one gives a shit about you guys again (not sorry), but you don't need to wipe your ass all over our sunshine. :shrug:

 

 

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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7 hours ago, Red Ted Redemption said:

SDSU would obviously get an at large bid if they did the selection today. Anyone trying to say otherwise isn’t arguing in good faith. 

It was a joke as the suds fanatic can’t understand the gist of an argument. Of course they’d be in today. The whole point was what another poster said. It’s great start, great looking team right now and still their margin for error is thin because of the MWC 

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