1st week MW impressions (Long)

[kingpotato]

Obviously, it was a phenomenal opening weekend. Very close to being an epic weekend. People have a tendency to over-react about one game so I'm looking at how the teams played and what off-season concerns were addressed or not addressed. 

Boise - Obviously, going on the road to beat a blue blood is big. But the way they did it was impressive. Florida State was completely dominated physically, which rarely happens when G5s play P5s. Boise consistently put together long drives. They had 621 yards on what was supposed to be a good defense and they never had a play longer than 38 yards. They ran the ball with consistency. Over 200 yards with their longest run only being 24 yards. Two different RBs had over 100 yards from scrimmage. RB concern, answered. Hurricane Hank not only had a very big game on the road throwing for 400+ yards, but more than anything showed tremendous toughness and moxie. He was getting lit up in the first half and never got rattled. Got way behind and never flinched. QB concern, answered. Boise fans repeatedly said that this WR group was a deep and talented. Nine different players caught balls. This should be the MW best group of WRs. Defensively this was supposed to be a stout group and didn't look like it at first. But it was missed tackles, bad angles, blown coverage, and just some flat out raw speed that FSU had. But FSU was never able to sustain drives. They never crossed midfield in the 2nd half. Boise had 11 TFL (three sacks) on 53 total plays by FSU. That means more than once out of every five plays went backwards for the noles. Clean some things up and this could be a dominant group. Defensive concern, inconclusive.

Air Force - I still think this is the 2nd best team in the league. Didn't really get to show it against an overpowered opponent, but their defense did hold them to 161 total yards. Dominant running game. Next game is @ Colorado and then we'll have a much better idea of what Air Force is this year. 

Utah State - I thought they were going to lose this game, but I came away much more bullish on the baggies than I was going into the season. Major concern going into the season was the OL and the offensive playmakers. USU ran the ball consistently all game and has a stud new RB to compliment Bright. They only gave up one sack and only three TFL. That's amazing with what they had to replace. A ton of playmakers showed up at receiver. Nine different receivers caught passes with five of them having a catch for 20+ yards. Really impressed. Defensibly there wasn't a concern going into the season, but might be a concern now. Giving up almost 600 yards to a good but not great offense isn't good. This might be a staff issue, because the players are there. Secondary looks like a concern... but that usually is the issue with USU defensively. USU outplayed WF, but penalties and TOs cost them the game. While their record will not show it by the end of the year, I think this team might actually end up being better than last years' team.

Wyoming - Big win. That Mizzou win will end up being the best win of the season for the MW. Mizzou's next five games are all at home and they will be favored in all of them. They could end up being in the top-25 a little over a month from now. They also miss Alabama, LSU, aTm, and Auburn out of the East and the SEC West looks terrible. Everyone here is on the Wyoming bandwagon, but I'm not there yet. I still have the exact same concerns about Wyoming as I did going into the season. A win is a win, but Wyoming won because they were +3 in the TO battle. They were incredibly timely and they needed every single one of them or else the would have lost that game. Offensively, they had a good running game, but two plays counted for almost half of those yards. Outside of those two plays they didn't move the ball all that great. I still have no idea if the QB can throw the ball, but a 37% comp % for the game doesn't give me a lot of confidence in that area. Defensively was my biggest area of concern for the pokes and they gave up almost 550 yards of offense at home. Again, great win and it'll go a long way for the league, but I'm still in a "wait and see" mode for Wyoming.

UNM - Getting outplayed by an FCS team (even a good one) is no good. In the end, they did win, so no embarrassment there. They'll fight SJSU for the title of leagues worst team.

CSU - They look exactly the same as they always do under Bobo. Good offense, terrible defense. They will put some scares in to the leagues top teams, but they look like a sub .500 team again.

Hawaii - They aren't getting a lot of credit by some on this board for beating Arizona. Arizona is better than some are giving them credit for. Beating a team despite being minus 4 in the TO battle is really impressive and rare. That offense is going to be hard to stop. I'm still not certain about the defense. They are going to be a very hard team to play, but ultimately it'll come down to their defense. I still think there could be a concern there.

SDSU - I was actually really concerned about this game for SDSU. This is exactly the type of game Rocky teams have a tendency to lose to. Weber State is a very good FCS team and SDSU seems to always have games where they play down to teams. So I'm less concerned about this that some on this board. Defense is still rock solid. OL is a really big concern. It was been mess the last two seasons and it looks like it might be again. That needs to get figured out or this is another .500 season. I'm going to wait and see how they do against UCLA to make a determination on the tecs.

Fresno - I didn't expect them to win this game and they didn't. Came back and almost pulled it out. I had mentioned earlier that Fresno played an insane amount of inexperienced QBs last year and that was a big reason for some of the defensive numbers. Well, right out of the gate, they play an experienced QB and give up more points than they did in any game last year and 450 yards... and that is despite that QB getting knocked out of the game helping their comeback. QB will be different this year. Reyna is definitely a gunslinger and playmaker. A little Brett Favre quality. But he's definitely more inconsistent than MM. Sub 50% comp % isn't gunna do it. Also ran the ball 20 times. Running QBs have a really difficult time making it through the season. Better have a good back up QB. I think many are expecting a win against Minnesota at home. The Gophers looked absolutely terrible against an FCS team and had a late comeback to win. Fresno NEEDS to win this game. They have been really steady under Tedford, but with a shakier D and a QB that looks a little up and down, they look like they might be more inconsistent.

UNR - Another great, great win at home. This is gunna sound a lot like the Wyoming write up. A win is a win, but I'm not completely on the Reno bandwagon. Plus five in TO and they needed every single last one of them to win this game. They were outgained, gave up over 500 yards to a team that lost almost the entire offense from last year, and they struggled to convert on 3rd down. Everyone seems bullish on the new QB, I'm in a holding pattern on that, as well. He showed some moxie and made some really timely plays so that is good. He also took care of the ball. Reno's system is QB friendly so any QB should have decent numbers there. But a 5.8 ypa number is really low. That'll need to improve. Run D looked good. I still think they'll finish outside of the top-3 in the West. 

UNLV - Looked like they were supposed to. Very strong running game and inconsistent passing attack. Defensively is where they need to improve to have a successful season. They looks pretty good, not great, against an overmatched opponent so that is inconclusive. We'll know a lot more about them after the ASU. That's a really big game. They need to win games like this.

SJSU - They're terrible but they didn't embarrass the league, so there is that. It'd be shocking if they didn't finish last in the West. They could beat UNM at home to not be the worst in the league. They have a very winnable game at home against Tulsa next. That would be a really good win for the league... which tells ya just how far down SJSU is. 

[carbonpoke]

I know ur not on the pokes bandwagon... You should go too the condensed game highlights and slow mo the big run gains.  Offensive line is way beyond what I thought.  Really good push and pancake.  See for yourself, it's crazy.

[Wyoguns]

I'm not sold the Pokes are world-beaters either.  That said the win over Missouri is awesome.  We'll see how this team develops...  QB play had better improve a lot or we'll be in trouble 

[kingpotato]

2 hours ago, carbonpoke said:

I know ur not on the pokes bandwagon... You should go too the condensed game highlights and slow mo the big run gains.  Offensive line is way beyond what I thought.  Really good push and pancake.  See for yourself, it's crazy.

I watched the whole game. To be fair to Wyoming, they usually have better results than what it seems they should. Bohl relies on field position, TOs, defensive scores, and timely special teams plays. So statistically their results don't always match the numbers. It's really difficult to quantify those areas as a predictor. 

[TrueAg]

Loved the summaries KP! You should make this a weekly post. I really could not agree with you more on any of the games or thoughts moving forward. All-in-all a great opener for the league with a couple of close calls that could have made it historic.

[sdsuphilip4]

I think the offensive line actually played ok for SDSU, Washington looked way slower than usual and missed holes he had a awful game all around. Agnew got himself into pressure even when he had a clean pocket around him and his footwork is awful. Need to give someone else a shot. Also the play calling was terrible, you can't keep calling the same run play on 1st down that isn't working, you can't keep running the same 8 yard routes and not attempting to stretch the defense deep. 

[Nevada Convert]

15 hours ago, kingpotato said:

Obviously, it was a phenomenal opening weekend. Very close to being an epic weekend. People have a tendency to over-react about one game so I'm looking at how the teams played and what off-season concerns were addressed or not addressed. 

Boise - Obviously, going on the road to beat a blue blood is big. But the way they did it was impressive. Florida State was completely dominated physically, which rarely happens when G5s play P5s. Boise consistently put together long drives. They had 621 yards on what was supposed to be a good defense and they never had a play longer than 38 yards. They ran the ball with consistency. Over 200 yards with their longest run only being 24 yards. Two different RBs had over 100 yards from scrimmage. RB concern, answered. Hurricane Hank not only had a very big game on the road throwing for 400+ yards, but more than anything showed tremendous toughness and moxie. He was getting lit up in the first have and never got rattled. Got way behind and never flinched. QB concern, answered. Boise fans repeatedly said that this WR group was a deep and talented. Nine different players caught balls. This should be the MW best group of WRs. Defensively this was supposed to be a stout group and didn't look like it at first. But it was missed tackles, bad angles, blown coverage, and just some flat out raw speed that FSU had. But FSU was never able to sustain drives. They never crossed midfield in the 2nd half. Boise had 11 TFL (three sacks) on 53 total plays by FSU. That means more than once out of every five plays went backwards for the noles. Clean some things up and this could be a dominant group. Defensive concern, inconclusive.

Air Force - I still think this is the 2nd best team in the league. Didn't really get to show it against an overpowered opponent, but their defense did hold them to 161 total yards. Dominant running game. Next game is @ Colorado and then we'll have a much better idea of what Air Force is this year. 

Utah State - I thought they were going to lose this game, but I came away much more bullish on the baggies than I was going into the season. Major concern going into the season was the OL and the offensive playmakers. USU ran the ball consistently all game and has a stud new RB to compliment Bright. They only gave up one sack and only three TFL. That's amazing with what they had to replace. A ton of playmakers showed up at receiver. Nine different receivers caught passes with five of them having a catch for 20+ yards. Really impressed. Defensibly there wasn't a concern going into the season, but might be a concern now. Giving up almost 600 yards to a good but not great offense isn't good. This might be a staff issue, because the players are there. Secondary looks like a concern... but that usually is the issue with USU defensively. USU outplayed WF, but penalties and TOs cost them the game. While their record will not show it by the end of the year, I think this team might actually end up being better than last years' team.

Wyoming - Big win. That Mizzou win will end up being the best win of the season for the MW. Mizzou's next five games are all at home and they will be favored in all of them. They could end up being in the top-25 a little over a month from now. They also miss Alabama, LSU, aTm, and Auburn out of the East and the SEC West looks terrible. Everyone here is on the Wyoming bandwagon, but I'm not there yet. I still have the exact same concerns about Wyoming as I did going into the season. A win is a win, but Wyoming won because they were +3 in the TO battle. They were incredibly timely and they needed every single one of them or else the would have lost that game. Offensively, they had a good running game, but two plays counted for almost half of those yards. Outside of those two plays they didn't move the ball all that great. I still have no idea if the QB can throw the ball, but a 37% comp % for the game doesn't give me a lot of confidence in that area. Defensively was my biggest area of concern for the pokes and they gave up almost 550 yards of offense at home. Again, great win and it'll go a long way for the league, but I'm still in a "wait and see" mode for Wyoming.

UNM - Getting outplayed by an FCS team (even a good one) is no good. In the end, they did win, so no embarrassment there. They'll fight SJSU for the title of leagues worst team.

CSU - They look exactly the same as they always do under Bobo. Good offense, terrible defense. They will put some scares in to the leagues top teams, but they look like a sub .500 team again.

Hawaii - They aren't getting a lot of credit by some on this board for beating Arizona. Arizona is better than some are giving them credit for. Beating a team despite being minus 4 in the TO battle is really impressive and rare. That offense is going to be hard to stop. I'm still not certain about the defense. They are going to be a very hard team to play, but ultimately it'll come down to their defense. I still think there could be a concern there.

SDSU - I was actually really concerned about this game for SDSU. This is exactly the type of game Rocky teams have a tendency to lose to. Weber State is a very good FCS team and SDSU seems to always have games where they play down to teams. So I'm less concerned about this that some on this board. Defense is still rock solid. OL is a really big concern. It was been mess the last two seasons and it looks like it might be again. That needs to get figured out or this is another .500 season. I'm going to wait and see how they do against UCLA to make a determination on the tecs.

Fresno - I didn't expect them to win this game and they didn't. Came back and almost pulled it out. I had mentioned earlier that Fresno played an insane amount of inexperienced QBs last year and that was a big reason for some of the defensive numbers. Well, right out of the gate, they play an experienced QB and give up more points than they did in any game last year and 450 yards... and that is despite that QB getting knocked out of the game helping their comeback. QB will be different this year. Reyna is definitely a gunslinger and playmaker. A little Brett Favre quality. But he's definitely more inconsistent than MM. Sub 50% comp % isn't gunna do it. Also ran the ball 20 times. Running QBs have a really difficult time making it through the season. Better have a good back up QB. I think many are expecting a win against Minnesota at home. The Gophers looked absolutely terrible against an FCS team and had a late comeback to win. Fresno NEEDS to win this game. They have been really steady under Tedford, but with a shakier D and a QB that looks a little up and down, they look like they might be more inconsistent.

UNR - Another great, great win at home. This is gunna sound a lot like the Wyoming write up. A win is a win, but I'm not completely on the Reno bandwagon. Plus five in TO and they needed every single last one of them to win this game. They were outgained, gave up over 500 yards to a team that lost almost the entire offense from last year, and they struggled to convert on 3rd down. Everyone seems bullish on the new QB, I'm in a holding pattern on that, as well. He showed some moxie and made some really timely plays so that is good. He also took care of the ball. Reno's system is QB friendly so any QB should have decent numbers there. But a 5.8 ypa number is really low. That'll need to improve. Run D looked good. I still think they'll finish outside of the top-3 in the West. 

UNLV - Looked like they were supposed to. Very strong running game and inconsistent passing attack. Defensively is where they need to improve to have a successful season. They looks pretty good, not great, against an overmatched opponent so that is inconclusive. We'll know a lot more about them after the ASU. That's a really big game. They need to win games like this.

SJSU - They're terrible but they didn't embarrass the league, so there is that. It'd be shocking if they didn't finish last in the West. They could beat UNM at home to not be the worst in the league. They have a very winnable game at home against Tulsa next. That would be a really good win for the league... which tells ya just how far down SJSU is. 

SJSU will upset one or two decent to good teams this year. They're not as bad as you think. 

[AZdogFan]

I think (and this is coming from a fan so take it as you will) Fresno is going to be better this season than Saturday night would indicate. That doesn't invalidate any of the analysis you did, I think you hit the nail on the head for what the team looked like on Saturday.

Reyna hadn't started a game in over three years prior to Saturday and was playing in a place he grew up wanting to play so the adrenaline was definitely playing a factor in his game. He absolutely made some mistakes and has room to grow but there's not a game on the rest of our schedule that has an environment like the Coliseum. The starting offensive line wasn't solidified until late in the week as well so having that stability moving forward should help Reyna get better protection and time to make the throws he needs to make, or give the runners time to get through the holes the line is opening up.

The defense had a rough start with the first two drives but once they settled in they held USC to 10 points (yes, a good chunk of that was against a backup QB but in the past Fresno has had a habit of making backup QBs look like Heisman contenders). The special teams coverage gave up the other TD so that's more than likely going to be a point of emphasis in practice this week.

I think (hope) the game this week will be a much better indicator of how the team will do this season and we'll see a lot of the issues cleaned up.

[pokerider]

Getting turnovers is huge in any game, and not committing turnovers is also huge so can't discount a win because of turnovers.  The interception in the end zone was the result of great defense on that play too.  

The thing I really like now is Wyoming's offense, especially passing offense, should get better as the season progresses.  There was also a few plays that Pokes just missed on, the 3rd and goal where Chambers threw the short pass into the ground, next week he'll make that pass.  And a couple of missed 3rd and short's.  The running game really helped the play action against Missouri.  I look for that to continue. 

[MetropolitanCowboy]

Hawaii seems back to the good ol' days of Run-n-Shoot, with the offense playing balls out and the defense...not so much. That's ok though. It's a lot better than where we were under Chow or McMackin. 

 

[Lester_in_reno]

Good write up and thanks. But it WAS just game #1.

And UNR 's athletic teams all go by Nevada.

[NorthWestCowboy]

I was impressed with the Cowboys run defense giving up just 114 yards total.  Mizzou's O-line was huge with all players over 325 lbs.  They were also experienced with 4 of 5 returning strarters from last season's squad.  Mizzou's backfield featured talented running backs in Rountree and Badie that rushed for 1200 and 600 yards last season, respectively.  Not to mention Kelly Bryant's rushing ability as a QB.  The Pokes held Rountree to 47 yards on 15 carries for an average of 2.7 per, Badie to 53 yards on 16 carries for an avearage of 3.3 per and Bryant to 20 yards on 9 carries for a 1.8 ypc average.

The Cowboys pass defense on the other hand had problems although the issue was not so much in the secondary.  Wyoming's pass rush was all but non-existant, especially in the second half.  Mizzou's experienced O-line gave up only 13 sacks last season and dominated Wyoming's undersized D-line in the passing game all night.  For the most part Kelly Bryant had all the time he wanted in the pocket and this resulted in MIzzou putting up 423 yards on 31 completions.

Mizzou's passing game almost pulled out the win but Wyoming hung on in the end.

Wyoming will have to significantly improve the defensive pass rush and offensive passing game to have a shot at the division title.  It'll be interesting to see how much these areas can improve before conference play begins.  Luckily the remaining OOC schedule should allow the team and coaches to make adjustments and learn.  I still think these two facets of the game will limit the Cowboys potential this season.  The mountain is going to be a dog fight.

I do think Chambers has the same 'it' factor that Josh Allen did.  We saw flashes of it last season in his 3.5 games as starter and it was very apparent vs Mizzou.  The kid is going to give you his all and he's clearly a leader that will find a way to win.

[RebelSaint702]

7 minutes ago, Lester_in_reno said:

Good write up and thanks. But it WAS just game #1.

And UNR 's athletic teams all go by Nevada.

He had it right.  UNR.

[smltwnrckr]

The first-year QB play was so very impressive week 1. But the law of averages suggests that they will see their struggles this year, at least some of them at some points. 

[kingpotato]

1 hour ago, pokerider said:

Getting turnovers is huge in any game, and not committing turnovers is also huge so can't discount a win because of turnovers.  The interception in the end zone was the result of great defense on that play too.  

The thing I really like now is Wyoming's offense, especially passing offense, should get better as the season progresses.  There was also a few plays that Pokes just missed on, the 3rd and goal where Chambers threw the short pass into the ground, next week he'll make that pass.  And a couple of missed 3rd and short's.  The running game really helped the play action against Missouri.  I look for that to continue. 

That's what everyone says when they are the beneficiary of TOs. Of course they are a big part of the game. Every coach and fan in the world would say that. But it's an unreliable source to predict future wins since they largely even themselves out, relatively. Wyoming isn't going to be +36 in TO with zero TOs on the year. That just ain't gunna happen and it would be completely ridiculous to think that it would. Wyoming was plus 4 all of last year. Boise, Fresno, and USU were three of the best teams in the country in TO margin and all were < 1 per game. How are they going to do when they are on the other side of that? Because that definitely will happen this year.

[kingpotato]

1 hour ago, Lester_in_reno said:

Good write up and thanks. But it WAS just game #1.

And UNR 's athletic teams all go by Nevada.

That's why I labeled it "impressions."

And I apologize, I meant no disrespect to the Wolfpack.

[JADogs05]

FS had a good pass d whether it was against experienced or inexperienced qbs in 2018. The defense had one poor game last year. USC picked on Gaston, who was starting his first game, but after the first two drives the 'dogs slowed the Trojans down considerably. For 99% of the game the Trojans stayed away from JuJu Hughes and Bryant, the returners. The pass D will be alright, and I think the run D will be too.  Not a top 5 defense like they were last year, but alright.

The offense needs to take a massive step forward. Reyna must improve. 

[kingpotato]

26 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

The first-year QB play was so very impressive week 1. But the law of averages suggests that they will see their struggles this year, at least some of them at some points. 

One of the things I'm interested to see against Marshall is how Boise runs the ball. Watching Boise consistently get a push at the line of scrimmage against future NFL players was impressive. Even when the noles "stuffed" the run, Boise was getting two yards out of it. Outside of sacks, FSU didn't get a TFL until late in the game when they knew Boise was trying to kill the clock. I was thinking, "who is going to stop Boise's run game." It was just one game, but if they are able to do something similar to Marshall, I feel pretty confident that they will have success running the ball against most/all teams this year. 

[battle.borne]

I dig your analysis. A  few disagreements but not worth sperging out over.

With Nevada playing on the road in Autzen we will find out real quickly if they can keep their wits about them in a hostile environment.  While it's true Nevada was plus 5 against Purdue and needed every bit of it to eek out the win there is much to be excited about in Reno. The offense was really sluggish in the first half. If Carson can get his team in sync from the opening snap then perhaps Nevada will keep it respectable against a good Oregon team.

[kingpotato]

8 minutes ago, JADogs05 said:

FS had a good pass d whether it was against experienced or inexperienced qbs in 2018. The defense had one poor game last year. USC picked on Gaston, who was starting his first game, but after the first two drives the 'dogs slowed the Trojans down considerably. For 99% of the game the Trojans stayed away from JuJu Hughes and Bryant, the returners. The pass D will be alright, and I think the run D will be too.  Not a top 5 defense like they were last year, but alright.

The offense needs to take a massive step forward. Reyna must improve. 

Fresno had a below average pass rush. 1.71 per game. That ranked 8th in the MW and 94th nationally. I expect the pass defense to be solid. Maybe the best in the conference. But I expect a significant jump in points allowed as UNR is the only team that doesn't return a starting QB on their schedule and they play them 2nd to the last game. So he'll have experience by then. 

Minnesota is a huge game. Winnable home game and the Gophers looked gawd awful against South Dakota State. USC is a different animal with the talent they bring. This game will give us a much better idea of where Fresno is this year.