Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Europe is also in bad shape.   There is always a recession cycle coming for us.  if there is no real structural weakness in the market, the Fed may be able to manage it.  I just see a lot of people cheering it on for obvious reasons.

I do think the media will have a big hand in it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jackrabbit said:

Europe is also in bad shape.   There is always a recession cycle coming for us.  if there is no real structural weakness in the market, the Fed may be able to manage it.  I just see a lot of people cheering it on for obvious reasons.

I do think the media will have a big hand in it.

The Fed may be able to manage it if Nacho Duce stops politicizing the job they do. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jackrabbit said:

Our media is pushing/ wanting a recession when there are no outward signs of it.  It may work.

...desperate to get rid of Trump.

The bond yield curve has inverted 3 times in the last 12 months.  That is a pretty good indicator that a recession is looming.  There’s not some grand conspiracy to start a recession to get rid of Trump.  

  • Like 1
  • Cheers 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The party would never end, they said...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

The Fed may be able to manage it if Nacho Duce stops politicizing the job they do. 

I don't really trust the Fed to do anything helpful ever. If anything, they cause more problems then they fix. 

I'm not one of those "end the fed" people either because the idea of a gold standard in today's day and age is ludicrous, but they've more or less bungled things repeatedly over the years. 

But Trump's continued attacks on them don't help them get things right.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm kind of getting the vibe that Jack is posting this because he secretly does worry that a recession is coming and that by posting this, he can say "WELL IT WAS BECAUSE OF THE MEDIA JUST LIKE I SAID!" instead of blaming Trump (because he gives Trump credit for economic expansion) or instead of just admitting that the President doesn't have a lot of power over economic cycles.

  • Like 6
  • Cheers 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jackrabbit said:

I don't bother with the bond market directly.  The fact is  that the US is about the only place on the world that is safe to put your money.  The rest of the world economies are not growing or are using negative interest rates that sont work.  During the best of times there is always something that is screwed up.  As long as the US labor market is strong with low interest and inflation rates we will be fine.

You guys love to root for failure and pain.

 

The average American is also up to their eyeballs in debt again.  Mortgage, consumer, student, and vehicle loans galore.  Who is going to continue to buy everything so companies can go up and up forever?  What happens to the labor market when widgets aren't being purchased and access to credit dries up?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Wyobraska said:

The average American is also up to their eyeballs in debt again.  Mortgage, consumer, student, and vehicle loans galore.  Who is going to continue to buy everything so companies can go up and up forever?  What happens to the labor market when widgets aren't being purchased and access to credit dries up?

Not to mention that corporate debt is at at an all time high and there's more stock owned now on margin than at any point in history. 

Shit's about to get real, really fast. 

  • Cheers 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Joe from WY said:

Not to mention that corporate debt is at at an all time high and there's more stock owned now on margin than at any point in history. 

Shit's about to get real, really fast. 

We can also add on the US National Debt starting to spiral out of control and so taxes will ultimately have to be raised on consumers as well.  Or programs will have to be cut.  Shit sandwiches are coming for a lot of people.  It could get really ugly.  

  • Cheers 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, happycamper said:

I'm kind of getting the vibe that Jack is posting this because he secretly does worry that a recession is coming and that by posting this, he can say "WELL IT WAS BECAUSE OF THE MEDIA JUST LIKE I SAID!" instead of blaming Trump (because he gives Trump credit for economic expansion) or instead of just admitting that the President doesn't have a lot of power over economic cycles.

The prez doesnt have much control over the economy...but he can really screw it up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

Not to mention that corporate debt is at at an all time high and there's more stock owned now on margin than at any point in history. 

Shit's about to get real, really fast. 

 

1 minute ago, Wyobraska said:

We can also add on the US National Debt starting to spiral out of control and so taxes will ultimately have to be raised on consumers as well.  Or programs will have to be cut.  Shit sandwiches are coming for a lot of people.  It could get really ugly.  

And people wonder why the fed wants more inflation

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only thing that keeps our system bouyant is the world's trust in the productivity of the American worker.  They are the basis of our wealth rather than a number on a spreadsheet or an oz of gold.

Once that is gone we are all screwed.  That is why the media's attitude is so important.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, 800 point drop today.  That is some serious movement for the day traders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, alum93 said:

Wow, 800 point drop today.  That is some serious movement for the day traders.

The conspiracy to oust trump is deep 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Jackrabbit said:

The only thing that keeps our system bouyant is the world's trust in the productivity of the American worker.  They are the basis of our wealth rather than a number on a spreadsheet or an oz of gold.

Once that is gone we are all screwed.  That is why the media's attitude is so important.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Seems to me it isn't all about the American worker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Jackrabbit said:

No not completely.....but the dollar is respected far more than any other worldwide.

But times are a changin' as Robert Zimmerman said.  With US Debt spiralling out of control and other countries vying for world hegemony, the days of the US Dollar being the reserve currency is fragile.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The media have been warning about a recession since Trump was elected.  Virtually every economic action he has taken has been met with hand wringing about recession.  If you keep crying "recession" long enough you will eventually be right.  These guys are not prophets, they are just Chicken Littles with a TV show.  Inverted yield curves have predicted the last several recessions.  I am not completely sold it will be the case this time, but we will see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Wyobraska said:

But times are a changin' as Robert Zimmerman said.  With US Debt spiralling out of control and other countries vying for world hegemony, the days of the US Dollar being the reserve currency is fragile.  

Who?  Name one.  China?  Are you kidding me?  Their problems are far more dire than ours.  So who?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Who?  Name one.  China?  Are you kidding me?  Their problems are far more dire than ours.  So who?

Nobody will replace the dollar as a reserve currency soon IMO. The biggest threat IMO, though, to it, would be if there was a sort of multinational cryptocurrency/blockchain token by those countries which would serve the dual purpose of functioning as a reserve currency and running an end-around around Treasury Sanctions (Possibly). But, that probably won't happen because the IMF would just threaten to cut them off of the dollar and effectively shut them out of an American market, which renders the idea pretty useless at this point. They need us more than we need them. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×