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Jackrabbit

Wag the Dog

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Europe is also in bad shape.   There is always a recession cycle coming for us.  if there is no real structural weakness in the market, the Fed may be able to manage it.  I just see a lot of people cheering it on for obvious reasons.

I do think the media will have a big hand in it.

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1 minute ago, Jackrabbit said:

Europe is also in bad shape.   There is always a recession cycle coming for us.  if there is no real structural weakness in the market, the Fed may be able to manage it.  I just see a lot of people cheering it on for obvious reasons.

I do think the media will have a big hand in it.

The Fed may be able to manage it if Nacho Duce stops politicizing the job they do. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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2 hours ago, Jackrabbit said:

Our media is pushing/ wanting a recession when there are no outward signs of it.  It may work.

...desperate to get rid of Trump.

The bond yield curve has inverted 3 times in the last 12 months.  That is a pretty good indicator that a recession is looming.  There’s not some grand conspiracy to start a recession to get rid of Trump.  

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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2 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

The Fed may be able to manage it if Nacho Duce stops politicizing the job they do. 

I don't really trust the Fed to do anything helpful ever. If anything, they cause more problems then they fix. 

I'm not one of those "end the fed" people either because the idea of a gold standard in today's day and age is ludicrous, but they've more or less bungled things repeatedly over the years. 

But Trump's continued attacks on them don't help them get things right.

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I'm kind of getting the vibe that Jack is posting this because he secretly does worry that a recession is coming and that by posting this, he can say "WELL IT WAS BECAUSE OF THE MEDIA JUST LIKE I SAID!" instead of blaming Trump (because he gives Trump credit for economic expansion) or instead of just admitting that the President doesn't have a lot of power over economic cycles.

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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1 hour ago, Jackrabbit said:

I don't bother with the bond market directly.  The fact is  that the US is about the only place on the world that is safe to put your money.  The rest of the world economies are not growing or are using negative interest rates that sont work.  During the best of times there is always something that is screwed up.  As long as the US labor market is strong with low interest and inflation rates we will be fine.

You guys love to root for failure and pain.

 

The average American is also up to their eyeballs in debt again.  Mortgage, consumer, student, and vehicle loans galore.  Who is going to continue to buy everything so companies can go up and up forever?  What happens to the labor market when widgets aren't being purchased and access to credit dries up?

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Just now, Wyobraska said:

The average American is also up to their eyeballs in debt again.  Mortgage, consumer, student, and vehicle loans galore.  Who is going to continue to buy everything so companies can go up and up forever?  What happens to the labor market when widgets aren't being purchased and access to credit dries up?

Not to mention that corporate debt is at at an all time high and there's more stock owned now on margin than at any point in history. 

Shit's about to get real, really fast. 

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1 minute ago, Joe from WY said:

Not to mention that corporate debt is at at an all time high and there's more stock owned now on margin than at any point in history. 

Shit's about to get real, really fast. 

We can also add on the US National Debt starting to spiral out of control and so taxes will ultimately have to be raised on consumers as well.  Or programs will have to be cut.  Shit sandwiches are coming for a lot of people.  It could get really ugly.  

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9 minutes ago, happycamper said:

I'm kind of getting the vibe that Jack is posting this because he secretly does worry that a recession is coming and that by posting this, he can say "WELL IT WAS BECAUSE OF THE MEDIA JUST LIKE I SAID!" instead of blaming Trump (because he gives Trump credit for economic expansion) or instead of just admitting that the President doesn't have a lot of power over economic cycles.

The prez doesnt have much control over the economy...but he can really screw it up.

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3 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

Not to mention that corporate debt is at at an all time high and there's more stock owned now on margin than at any point in history. 

Shit's about to get real, really fast. 

 

1 minute ago, Wyobraska said:

We can also add on the US National Debt starting to spiral out of control and so taxes will ultimately have to be raised on consumers as well.  Or programs will have to be cut.  Shit sandwiches are coming for a lot of people.  It could get really ugly.  

And people wonder why the fed wants more inflation

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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The only thing that keeps our system bouyant is the world's trust in the productivity of the American worker.  They are the basis of our wealth rather than a number on a spreadsheet or an oz of gold.

Once that is gone we are all screwed.  That is why the media's attitude is so important.

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11 minutes ago, Jackrabbit said:

The only thing that keeps our system bouyant is the world's trust in the productivity of the American worker.  They are the basis of our wealth rather than a number on a spreadsheet or an oz of gold.

Once that is gone we are all screwed.  That is why the media's attitude is so important.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Seems to me it isn't all about the American worker.

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21 minutes ago, Jackrabbit said:

No not completely.....but the dollar is respected far more than any other worldwide.

But times are a changin' as Robert Zimmerman said.  With US Debt spiralling out of control and other countries vying for world hegemony, the days of the US Dollar being the reserve currency is fragile.  

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The media have been warning about a recession since Trump was elected.  Virtually every economic action he has taken has been met with hand wringing about recession.  If you keep crying "recession" long enough you will eventually be right.  These guys are not prophets, they are just Chicken Littles with a TV show.  Inverted yield curves have predicted the last several recessions.  I am not completely sold it will be the case this time, but we will see.

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5 hours ago, Wyobraska said:

But times are a changin' as Robert Zimmerman said.  With US Debt spiralling out of control and other countries vying for world hegemony, the days of the US Dollar being the reserve currency is fragile.  

Who?  Name one.  China?  Are you kidding me?  Their problems are far more dire than ours.  So who?

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8 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Who?  Name one.  China?  Are you kidding me?  Their problems are far more dire than ours.  So who?

Nobody will replace the dollar as a reserve currency soon IMO. The biggest threat IMO, though, to it, would be if there was a sort of multinational cryptocurrency/blockchain token by those countries which would serve the dual purpose of functioning as a reserve currency and running an end-around around Treasury Sanctions (Possibly). But, that probably won't happen because the IMF would just threaten to cut them off of the dollar and effectively shut them out of an American market, which renders the idea pretty useless at this point. They need us more than we need them. 

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