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kingpotato

Is the talent gap between Boise and the MW getting larger?

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Boise's recruiting has been gradually increasing until this year's monster class that was a big jump. I remember hearing the CSU radio guy being interviewed here locally and he raved that CSU has been #2 in recruiting behind Boise the last three years, but I felt that didn't really tell the whole story. While factually true, the gap between Boise and CSU this year was larger than CSU and the last place MW team. So I decided to go back and see the difference between Boise and the rest of the MW through the years and the gap has been getting larger. Here it is:

'19 - Boise 85.67, MW Avg 80.71 = 4.96 difference
'18 - Boise 83.60, MW Avg 79.48 = 4.12 difference
'17 - Boise 83.11, MW Avg 79.21 = 3.90 difference
'16 - Boise 82.28, MW Avg 79.38 = 2.90 difference
'15 - Boise 83.61, MW Avg 79.44 = 4.17 difference <--- This was the best class Boise had ever had (on paper) at the time and these are RS-SR's this year (Ryp burned his RS). The problem with this class is it was troubled from the beginning. 10 of the players either never showed up, were kicked off, or left on their own. So half of the class never really played. 

It seems that over the next few years the talent level on the field will start to show. Discuss!

 

 

 

You're welcome @mugtang.... it's almost football season. I figured I'd get in a couple more shots. 

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19 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

Boise's recruiting has been gradually increasing until this year's monster class that was a big jump. I remember hearing the CSU radio guy being interviewed here locally and he raved that CSU has been #2 in recruiting behind Boise the last three years, but I felt that didn't really tell the whole story. While factually true, the gap between Boise and CSU this year was larger than CSU and the last place MW team. So I decided to go back and see the difference between Boise and the rest of the MW through the years and the gap has been getting larger. Here it is:

'19 - Boise 85.67, MW Avg 80.71 = 4.96 difference
'18 - Boise 83.60, MW Avg 79.48 = 4.12 difference
'17 - Boise 83.11, MW Avg 79.21 = 3.90 difference
'16 - Boise 82.28, MW Avg 79.38 = 2.90 difference
'15 - Boise 83.61, MW Avg 79.44 = 4.17 difference <--- This was the best class Boise had ever had (on paper) at the time and these are RS-SR's this year (Ryp burned his RS). The problem with this class is it was troubled from the beginning. 10 of the players either never showed up, were kicked off, or left on their own. So half of the class never really played. 

It seems that over the next few years the talent level on the field will start to show. Discuss!

 

 

 

You're welcome @mugtang.... it's almost football season. I figured I'd get in a couple more shots. 

I’m so happy football is starting. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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41 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

The problem with this class is it was troubled from the beginning. 10 of the players either never showed up, were kicked off, or left on their own. So half of the class never really played.  

Yeah I’d like to make a ranking of teams with their depth charts and see what the average score per team there is.

Some of Boise’s highest rated recruits (Isiah Moore, Jermani Brown) never played. And some walk-ons (Avery Williams, Garrett Collingham) are solid contributors.

I don’t think our offensive and defensive lines would be as highly ranked as the rest of the team.

I also think there has been some grade inflation and more players are rated every year - so the P5 and G5 divide in recruiting rankings appears larger every year. 

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Hopefully the adjustments in the coaching staff will help these recruits meet their potential. I miss the days of 2 and 3 star recruits that consistently played their asses off. 

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I am pleased that Boise St. has been able to parlay their sustained success into recruiting wins. However, it seems that given the results, overall, the staff is not maximizing the available talent.  Now I'm not going to besmirch 10+ wins on average since joining the MWC.  But it seems that the staff is really good, but not exceptional.  I do not advocate firing Harsin, by any means; I'm just saying that the coaches need to develop themselves as much as the players in their charge.

BSU RECRUITING SINCE 2002.PNG

 

24570143_BSUBACKGROUNDBANNERANDY1AWELCOME.png.5fa1e131a0fec4c26c0be2f4d0a420eb.png

망치를 가진 남자에게는, 모든것이 못처럼 보인다.

원숭이도 나무에서 떨어진다.

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The answer to the question is definitely. And that begs asking THIS question of Boise State fans.

How can your school dominate MWC recruiting annually yet fail to run away with the conference title every year?

Boom goes the dynamite.

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22 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

The answer to the question is definitely. And that begs asking THIS question of Boise State fans.

How can your school dominate MWC recruiting annually yet fail to run away with the conference title every year?

It called doing less with more.

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59 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

The answer to the question is definitely. And that begs asking THIS question of Boise State fans.

How can your school dominate MWC recruiting annually yet fail to run away with the conference title every year?

Because that's just a massively simplistic view of what it takes to win. It's AN element, but it's not the ONLY element. Alabama has the top class every year (until recently) and with as good of teams they've had, they've never once gone undefeated. USC usually out recruits the Pac 12, but rarely wins the conference. Shoot, we saw it in spades with some of UNLV's basketball classes. Injuries play a part, attrition, QB play, match ups, coaching, and you have to get a little lucky sometimes, because you're not always going to play your best and the ball just bounces weird sometimes.

When it comes to Boise specifically there are a few points to be made. These recent classes, you won't really get the full impact for 3 or 4 years from now. This year's class will have very little impact on this year's team unless the QB wins the starting job. As I've mentioned in the past, Harsin's first two classes were decimated with attrition. About half of the players didn't complete their careers at Boise in those two classes. That's why two years ago, the vast majority of the two deep were FR and SO. 80% of the OL was FR and SO and the two deep of the defense was almost entirely FR and SO. They would have returned all 11 on D last year, but LVE declared early and now they have another 9 coming back on defense. 

And you absolutely do see the difference in Boise's recruiting and that's through consistency and ability to battle through injuries. Boise has never finished more than one game out of their conference/division title for 20 straight years. That's amazing consistency. And that's under four different coaches and 10 different QBs. It's why last year they had MASSIVE injury issues and were still a blocked extra point away from a conference championship and finished in the top-25. A team like SDSU has injury problems like that and they go 1-5 to end the season. Most of the G5 schools generally struggle in the years where the injury bug hits hard. The depth that comes with that recruiting is where that really shows up. 

Look, I'm just pointing out facts with the numbers provided. Boise used to barely out recruit it's conference mates, but that gap has been widening every year (as shown above). Again, I'm not sure you'll really see the difference for a few years still, but there is definitely a difference on paper.

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15 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Yeah I’d like to make a ranking of teams with their depth charts and see what the average score per team there is.

Some of Boise’s highest rated recruits (Isiah Moore, Jermani Brown) never played. And some walk-ons (Avery Williams, Garrett Collingham) are solid contributors.

I don’t think our offensive and defensive lines would be as highly ranked as the rest of the team.

I also think there has been some grade inflation and more players are rated every year - so the P5 and G5 divide in recruiting rankings appears larger every year. 

 

8 hours ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Hopefully the adjustments in the coaching staff will help these recruits meet their potential. I miss the days of 2 and 3 star recruits that consistently played their asses off. 

This gets pointed out often. Point out the busts while pointing out that LVE was a walk-on. But, Mattison was the highest rated guy in his class (1st team AC, early entry draft). Ryp was the highest rated in his class (All time MW passing leader, MWPOTY, four time AC with three of those 1st team). Curtis Weaver was a highly sought after recruit. Boise actually had to fight off a late push from USC for him and he's a likely three time 1st team AC, FRAA, early entry possible 1st round draft pick. A couple years ago Octavius Evans, CT Thomas, Zeke Noa, Kaniho, and Chase Cord were some of the top recruits. Now we are still 2 or 3 years away from seeing their ultimate impact on the program, but they've shown enough to think they'll be impact guys. Last's years class, Top recruit Shakir looks great so far. Scale Igiehon looks like a stud. Tyneill Hopper, Stephan Cobbs, Chris Mitchell, and AVB were some of the other top recruits and the early reports on them is favorable. 

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18 hours ago, kingpotato said:

'19 - Boise 85.67, MW Avg 80.71
'18 - Boise 83.60, MW Avg 79.48
'17 - Boise 83.11, MW Avg 79.21
'16 - Boise 82.28, MW Avg 79.38
'15 - Boise 83.61, MW Avg 79.44

Looking through the probable starters, Boise only has 5-6 that are lower than 81.

CB Avery Williams (who was unranked)

CB Jalen Walker (79.82)

NT Sonatane Lui (unranked) - although starter could be Scale Igiehon (85.18)

S Kekoa Nawahine (80.49)

LB Riley Whimpey (80.32)

C Garrett Larson (80.80)

---

Offensive line is the weakest position group on the team by recruiting rankings (Cleveland only 81.13 and Molchon is 81.78 - both are getting NFL talk though)

Skill positions on offense are very highly ranked. 

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20 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Looking through the probable starters, Boise only has 5-6 that are lower than 81.

CB Avery Williams (who was unranked)

CB Jalen Walker (79.82)

NT Sonatane Lui (unranked) - although starter could be Scale Igiehon (85.18)

S Kekoa Nawahine (80.49)

LB Riley Whimpey (80.32)

C Garrett Larson (80.80)

---

Offensive line is the weakest position group on the team by recruiting rankings (Cleveland only 81.13 and Molchon is 81.78 - both are getting NFL talk though)

Skill positions on offense are very highly ranked. 

Three of those are whiteshirts so they are much older than most of the team. 

OL has generally been some of the lower rated recruits for Boise. Most teams only take one QB or one or two RBs, so there are a lot of players available after the blue bloods get their guys. Most schools are taking 3 to 5 on the OL so the blue bloods scoop up most of the high rated players there. 

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8 hours ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

The answer to the question is definitely. And that begs asking THIS question of Boise State fans.

How can your school dominate MWC recruiting annually yet fail to run away with the conference title every year?

Who cares we have more talent.

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On 8/9/2019 at 6:16 PM, bsu_alum9 said:

Looking through the probable starters, Boise only has 5-6 that are lower than 81.

CB Avery Williams (who was unranked)

CB Jalen Walker (79.82)

NT Sonatane Lui (unranked) - although starter could be Scale Igiehon (85.18)

S Kekoa Nawahine (80.49)

LB Riley Whimpey (80.32)

C Garrett Larson (80.80)

---

Offensive line is the weakest position group on the team by recruiting rankings (Cleveland only 81.13 and Molchon is 81.78 - both are getting NFL talk though)

Skill positions on offense are very highly ranked. 

ooohhhh names! and..and...and NUMBERS!!!!!!

help meee. I'm scurred!

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

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On 8/9/2019 at 12:17 PM, kingpotato said:

Because that's just a massively simplistic view of what it takes to win. It's AN element, but it's not the ONLY element. Alabama has the top class every year (until recently) and with as good of teams they've had, they've never once gone undefeated. USC usually out recruits the Pac 12, but rarely wins the conference. Shoot, we saw it in spades with some of UNLV's basketball classes. Injuries play a part, attrition, QB play, match ups, coaching, and you have to get a little lucky sometimes, because you're not always going to play your best and the ball just bounces weird sometimes.

When it comes to Boise specifically there are a few points to be made. These recent classes, you won't really get the full impact for 3 or 4 years from now. This year's class will have very little impact on this year's team unless the QB wins the starting job. As I've mentioned in the past, Harsin's first two classes were decimated with attrition. About half of the players didn't complete their careers at Boise in those two classes. That's why two years ago, the vast majority of the two deep were FR and SO. 80% of the OL was FR and SO and the two deep of the defense was almost entirely FR and SO. They would have returned all 11 on D last year, but LVE declared early and now they have another 9 coming back on defense. 

And you absolutely do see the difference in Boise's recruiting and that's through consistency and ability to battle through injuries. Boise has never finished more than one game out of their conference/division title for 20 straight years. That's amazing consistency. And that's under four different coaches and 10 different QBs. It's why last year they had MASSIVE injury issues and were still a blocked extra point away from a conference championship and finished in the top-25. A team like SDSU has injury problems like that and they go 1-5 to end the season. Most of the G5 schools generally struggle in the years where the injury bug hits hard. The depth that comes with that recruiting is where that really shows up. 

Look, I'm just pointing out facts with the numbers provided. Boise used to barely out recruit it's conference mates, but that gap has been widening every year (as shown above). Again, I'm not sure you'll really see the difference for a few years still, but there is definitely a difference on paper.

When SDSU began to REALLY out-recruit everybody in the MWC other than UNLV (which had an idiot coach) was when SDSU basketball's conference dominance began to fall off. A popular theory with which I can't disagree is that the essence of SDSU superiority was very good players who transferred in from power conference schools at which they had been underutilized as well as recruits who were under the radar coming out of HS. Of the latter group was Kawhi Leonard who would have gone to UCLA if that school had then had as good a coaching staff as we had.

As I've already said, to argue that rankings by 247 mean absolutely nothing is just silly. Since, in more cases than not, big boy programs like UCLA don't overlook the Kawhi Leonards of the world and since 247's rankings are based largely on who has offered a kid, they are anything but worthless. Rather, the 247 rankings are as good a metric as any in assessing a kid's potential. However, as indicated by SDSU basketball, if your Group of 5 team starts being composed of too many kids with an entitlement mindset based on all the offers they got coming out of HS, that's not good either.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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50 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

When SDSU began to REALLY out-recruit everybody in the MWC other than UNLV (which had an idiot coach) was when SDSU basketball's conference dominance began to fall off. A popular theory with which I can't disagree is that the essence of SDSU superiority was very good players who transferred in from power conference schools at which they had been underutilized as well as recruits who were under the radar coming out of HS. Of the latter group was Kawhi Leonard who would have gone to UCLA if that school had then had as good a coaching staff as we had.

As I've already said, to argue that rankings by 247 mean absolutely nothing is just silly. Since, in more cases than not, big boy programs like UCLA don't overlook the Kawhi Leonards of the world and since 247's rankings are based largely on who has offered a kid, they are anything but worthless. Rather, the 247 rankings are as good a metric as any in assessing a kid's potential. However, as indicated by SDSU basketball, if your Group of 5 team starts being composed of too many kids with an entitlement mindset based on all the offers they got coming out of HS, that's not good either.

Yeah, that's a fairly common occurrence. I've heard a lot of program's fans that have turned the corner, but then complain about these higher rated recruits not bringing the same intensity as the more lightly regarded recruits before them. When you start to attract entitled kids that don't have that edge. I don't know that Boise is bringing in that caliber of athlete at this point, but we'll see in the next 3 or 4 years if that is the case or not. 

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Serious question for legitimate clarification...is it really a talent gap or is it a ranking of talent gap?

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Mike Bronson, on 27 Sept 2013 - 8:45 PM, said:

 

    Don't be mad because the refs are going to need Tommy John surgeries after this poorly played game.

 

Quote

mugtang, on 27 Sept 2013 - 8:49 PM, said:

 

    Your mom is going to need Tommy John surgery after jerking me off all night.

 

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14 minutes ago, Dogs4Me said:

Serious question for legitimate clarification...is it really a talent gap or is it a ranking of talent gap?

Our recent rosters have not had a talent gap compared to the other top programs, no.  Biggest reason being is the complete bust of Harsin's first two classes where about half the recruits left the program for one reason or another.  We have had very few upperclassmen for multiple seasons now because of those classes washing out.  Harsin changed his recruiting philosophy it seems and attrition has normalized.  If we are to ignore rankings, and just look at P5 offers, yes the gap is growing but we will not have an idea how it plays out for a few seasons.  The frequency with which we beat out mid and upper Pac 12 and Big 12 teams is higher than it has ever been by a good bit.

Boise has been recruiting a different tier of athlete recently then they had before highlighted by last years class.

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Well according to Rocky this 2019 class is the best he ever has had. He is faint with praise  but says that there are seven that are going to be "very,very ,very, good." How many years have mighty USC and UCLA been at  the top of the Charts and flopped.It will be interesting to see how the new stadium effects recruiting. 

"Everything that does not destroy you makes you stronger except Aztec Football "

Freddy Nietzsche

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