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mugtang

Pick 10 Results Thread

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17 hours ago, mugtang said:

Who knew WSU was going to suck so bad...

Biggest surprises for me so far are Tulane, Temple & SMU.  All belong to the self-annointed Pompous "6" conference.

So, grand group of 65 players, of whom less than a dozen ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE WITH BANTER(!)(?)....(&$%$#!!) :foottap:,

What is your biggest surprise this year?  I mean, aside from the big reveal that you all entrusted this game into the hands of a guy who sometimes can't figure out the win percentage of a team even with the help of an excel spreadsheet? :ph34r:  It was computer error, dammit - that's my story and I'm sticking to it!!

 

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4 minutes ago, Boise fan said:

Biggest surprises for me so far are Tulane, Temple & SMU.  All belong to the self-annointed Pompous "6" conference.

So, grand group of 65 players, of whom less than a dozen ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE WITH BANTER(!)(?)....(&$%$#!!) :foottap:,

What is your biggest surprise this year?  I mean, aside from the big reveal that you all entrusted this game into the hands of a guy who sometimes can't figure out the win percentage of a team even with the help of an excel spreadsheet? :ph34r:  It was computer error, dammit - that's my story and I'm sticking to it!!

 

I would add La Tech to the surprise list at 5-1.  Also disappointed in Vanderbilt.  What a waste that is.  

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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5 hours ago, Boise fan said:

Biggest surprises for me so far are Tulane, Temple & SMU.  All belong to the self-annointed Pompous "6" conference.

So, grand group of 65 players, of whom less than a dozen ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE WITH BANTER(!)(?)....(&$%$#!!) :foottap:,

What is your biggest surprise this year?  I mean, aside from the big reveal that you all entrusted this game into the hands of a guy who sometimes can't figure out the win percentage of a team even with the help of an excel spreadsheet? :ph34r:  It was computer error, dammit - that's my story and I'm sticking to it!!

Want more participation? Put a carrot on the end of the stick.

It's like pulling teeth to even get some who have committed to participate to put any effort into making their picks. Add year-long attaboys and monkey glasses avatars based on performance and there will be less people participating but those who do will actually care about the results.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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I'm surprised Army is doing so poorly. After watching them demolish Houston in the bowl, I was sure they'd be a 10-win team. Then, somehow they lose to Too-Lame and the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky.

Surprised SMU and Louisville are doing as well as they are. Louisville was picked in the last two rounds in most teams, and they might go bowling.

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11 hours ago, Boise fan said:

Biggest surprises for me so far are Tulane, Temple & SMU.  All belong to the self-annointed Pompous "6" conference.

So, grand group of 65 players, of whom less than a dozen ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE WITH BANTER(!)(?)....(&$%$#!!) :foottap:,

What is your biggest surprise this year?  I mean, aside from the big reveal that you all entrusted this game into the hands of a guy who sometimes can't figure out the win percentage of a team even with the help of an excel spreadsheet? :ph34r:  It was computer error, dammit - that's my story and I'm sticking to it!!

 

Biggest surprise for me is my New Mexico State pick. I got them last. Couldn't believe they were not picked. Figured they'd get 6-7 wins easy. But what do they do so far.....nadda, zilch, nothing...

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11 hours ago, Boise fan said:

What is your biggest surprise this year?  I mean, aside from the big reveal that you all entrusted this game into the hands of a guy who sometimes can't figure out the win percentage of a team even with the help of an excel spreadsheet? :ph34r:  It was computer error, dammit - that's my story and I'm sticking to it!!

Ohio looking disengaged at this point in the season. They may have only lost one more than I thought they would by this point in their schedule, but I had them for 8 W's, and now I'm thinking I'll only get 6, If that.

On the flip side, Ball St was the "best of the worst" with seven picks remaining as per my read. They've already hit the upper limit of what I projected (3 Ws).

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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25 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Ohio looking disengaged at this point in the season. They may have only lost one more than I thought they would by this point in their schedule, but I had them for 8 W's, and now I'm thinking I'll only get 6, If that.

On the flip side, Ball St was the "best of the worst" with seven picks remaining as per my read. They've already hit the upper limit of what I projected (3 Ws).

It's kinda funny when you look at the pre-season reports from various websites as they predict who will do what, and then how those teams actually perform.  I need to go back and look at the ones I read to see how accurate they've been.  I'm guessing it was a crap shoot.

Still hoping ball state can get me 6 wins!  lol.

I expect to finish in the middle of the pack somewhere.

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BCS is to Football what Fox News is to Journalism

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47 minutes ago, Boise fan said:

It's kinda funny when you look at the pre-season reports from various websites as they predict who will do what, and then how those teams actually perform.  I need to go back and look at the ones I read to see how accurate they've been.  I'm guessing it was a crap shoot.

Still hoping ball state can get me 6 wins!  lol.

I expect to finish in the middle of the pack somewhere.

Actually, at least in my experience, those sites have value, in that they're like the Sex Panther of prognostication. 

You hit the nail on the head when you suggested tracking performance to see how the teams performed against the site's projections. Data sampling allows for refining confidence levels in respective sites for successive seasons - I do the same.

No single one of the sites is going to be "right" per say, but using a basket of available sites allows for a degree of qualitative analysis that provides for forecasting with a reasonable degree of confidence. I expect - with a high degree of confidence - 70% of my teams to perform to expected values, with 10-20% underperforming and the remainder overachieving, 

 

 

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On 10/14/2019 at 11:17 PM, TheSanDiegan said:

Actually, at least in my experience, those sites have value, in that they're like the Sex Panther of prognostication. 

You hit the nail on the head when you suggested tracking performance to see how the teams performed against the site's projections. Data sampling allows for refining confidence levels in respective sites for successive seasons - I do the same.

No single one of the sites is going to be "right" per say, but using a basket of available sites allows for a degree of qualitative analysis that provides for forecasting with a reasonable degree of confidence. I expect - with a high degree of confidence - 70% of my teams to perform to expected values, with 10-20% underperforming and the remainder overachieving, 

 

 

I agree with no single site and if you take an aggregate or average ranking you can get a pretty 'good guess '. I've had good success the last couple years playing the Pick 10 using that philosophy . But, this year. I'm sucking ass. 

 

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1 hour ago, DestinFlPackfan said:

I agree with no single site and if you take an aggregate or average ranking you can get a pretty 'good guess '. I've had good success the last couple years playing the Pick 10 using that philosophy . But, this year. I'm sucking ass. 

I look for 'models' in agreement with each other, compare actuals against expected after the season, weigh reliability accordingly, feed weights into following season, rinse, repeat. That process has remained the same, though this is just the third season I've participated, so I've just beginning to refine it.

My draft strategy, however, has differed somewhat Y2Y. Last year, I wanted to 'collect' one team from each of the P5 during the first five rounds (made my Saturdays a little more interesting top to bottom). This year, I narrowed that to the SEC, B1G, and ACC, then went for the highest projected win total (as per the above process) from all remaining.

I nerd out on this shit - the data modeling I do IRL kind of hard wires me to take a systemic data-driven approach to most things. :shrug:

 

ETA: We'll see at the end of the season how well this worked (or not).

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Big jump for me up 4 spots to 2nd place. The Gophers have been a great mid round pick for me and one of my red bird mascot teams I picked 2nd to last is 4-2 so that was a good pick whichever team it is.

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Notre Dame is the only independent which is eligible for the CFP and that hurts recruiting so Army really needs to join the Pea6 Conference. Other than Northern Illinois and Western Michigan once each, I don't recall any MAC school going to the NY6 bowl game so being in that conference works against Ohio as does the fact that even during a second consecutive 9-win season following two consecutive 8-win years, Ohio averaged a terrible 16,229 fans per game so that has to really hurt recruiting too. And how many kids who play at those schools ever make an NFL roster? The bottom line is a couple 9- or 10-win seasons is probably the pinnacle for those programs and then they fall back to just over .500 even assuming their coach hasn't left for greener pastures.

Frank Solich is the oldest HC in the FBS at ~72 and will be hanging up his whistle soon. Once that happens that program can be expected to drop off bigly.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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5 hours ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

Notre Dame is the only independent which is eligible for the CFP and that hurts recruiting so Army really needs to join the Pea6 Conference. Other than Northern Illinois and Western Michigan once each, I don't recall any MAC school going to the NY6 bowl game so being in that conference works against Ohio as does the fact that even during a second consecutive 9-win season following two consecutive 8-win years, Ohio averaged a terrible 16,229 fans per game so that has to really hurt recruiting too. And how many kids who play at those schools ever make an NFL roster? The bottom line is a couple 9- or 10-win seasons is probably the pinnacle for those programs and then they fall back to just over .500 even assuming their coach hasn't left for greener pastures.

Frank Solich is the oldest HC in the FBS at ~72 and will be hanging up his whistle soon. Once that happens that program can be expected to drop off bigly.

That's it. I'm pulling you out of semi-retirement next year and bringing you on as a pre-season consultant. You'll be tasked with analyzing the teams Marianne Williamson identifies in her remote viewing sessions.

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I go 2-7 and only fall what, 2 spots?  Rough week for some of us.

Also: the rampant mediocrity in my selections is almost impressive.

Is it fitting or irony that possibly the most versatile word in the English language is also of unknown origin?

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20 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

Hey @Boise fan.. I appreciate all the work you do, and I hate to be a pain in the neck, but could you please take a look at the red team? :D

I spotted and corrected that the place numbers for each player weren't updated for Red Team.  Was that what you were bringing to my attention? Or am I misunderstanding? 

Lemme know and I'll get it fixed pronto.

Thx.

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BCS is to Football what Fox News is to Journalism

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25 minutes ago, Boise fan said:

I spotted and corrected that the place numbers for each player weren't updated for Red Team.  Was that what you were bringing to my attention? Or am I misunderstanding? 

Lemme know and I'll get it fixed pronto.

Thx.

Nope that was it. With the week I had I was pretty sure I wasn’t still 6th, lol. Thanks. 

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