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kingpotato

Over/Under wins for every MW team

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16 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

Do you click "follow this thread" or do you manually click on everything I post? 

When you quote and reply, the person you quote gets a notification when they log in. I know, crazy stuff. Don’t think about it too much...might hurt your brain. Get back to those LEGOs 

Fresno_State_Jim_Sweeny_Field_(_Bulldog_Stadium).jpg

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On 7/11/2019 at 1:59 PM, bsu_alum9 said:

Yeah. I'm not a huge believer in FPI, but it's one of the few that gives the win percentage estimate.  I made the graphs in excel from that and a spreadsheet i found on r/cfb or something.  For SDSU, it gives:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/21/san-diego-state-aztecs

9% to win vs. UCLA, 40.8% vs. Hawaii, and 32.2% vs BYU.  

The rest of the games are all projected wins, but many in the 50-70% range.

Thanks for that too. The only thing I would quibble with is ESPN's @ Hawaii prediction. UH can be tough on the rock but the Aztecs have held their own there over the years and this season the prior game is 10 days before in SD which will mitigate the travel problem a bit. Also, SDSU gave the 2018 game away when one of the best kickers in school history, John Baron, missed a short FG attempt on the final play of regulation and when Rocky went for 2 on a TD in OT but failed to get it. So I'd make that game a total toss-up.

Anyway, I fail to see how they can predict there's as much of a chance of us going 6-6 this year as there is of us going 8-4.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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35 minutes ago, TheTedfordTrain said:

When you quote and reply, the person you quote gets a notification when they log in. I know, crazy stuff. Don’t think about it too much...might hurt your brain. Get back to those LEGOs 

I didn't quote you in the lego thread... that was the point

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4 hours ago, AKram said:

I'm thinking the under right now for CSU because I just haven't seen anything from the staff to prove otherwise. 

Aside from losing Whitted to Green Bay (and replacing from within), Bobo has a stable staff going into this season. We'll see what this group can actually do to get these players to perform, and if they can coach them, especially game planning and management. That's a plus (if you like this staff).

The transfers look fine on paper, but I'll wait until Fall ball to feel good/bad about them.

We return decent and some good players (Ajayi--I think he's going to have a break out year; McDonald; Trey McBride--I think he should see a lot of playing time), stability where we really need it (line, QB, WR, etc), but will one of these players step up and be a team leader which I feel has been lacking from the team? I don't know.

Really, 5 or fewer wins this season and I think on Jan. 1 we dump Bobo (his buyout drops to a paltry $3 mil, though I'm not sure about the language of "termination w/o cause" aspect). 

I've been in Bobo's camp since he arrived on campus, but this season is, for me, the make or break with him. He tanks? I'll join the BoboHas2Gogo crowd (that website needs to be updated, by the way.)

Chuck Long's contract with SDSU allowed the school to terminate it "WITH cause" or "FOR cause" and among the contract's definition of "cause" was something like "unsatisfactory performance." Well, Chuck had the worst 3-year winning percentage in school history, with him at the helm the school suffered the biggest blowout loss in history, his final team surrendered more points and yards than any in school history, etc. yet SDSU never tried to rely on that provision to fire him. I complained like hell that the administration didn't because the $650K he was owed for the final year (which would be closer to $800K now) wasn't loose change for us. However, all they did was hire an employment law attorney to mediate and word is Chuck refused to budge an inch to compromise during that process.

Why didn't SDSU just refuse to pay him for the final year and force Chuck to sue for which HE would have had the burden of proof as the plaintiff? I was told by an insider something which made sense to me. That is, SDSU didn't do more not because it felt Chuck would win a breach of contract suit but for the most part because of the message it would send to prospective applicants down the road. In other words, despite proven incompetence being a listed reason to terminate a contract, almost nobody refuses to pay the remainder of a contract on that basis. Only moral turpitude offenses are the exception to that rule is what I was told and having followed things closely over the 11 years since, that appears to be the case.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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7 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Anyway, I fail to see how they can predict there's as much of a chance of us going 6-6 this year as there is of us going 8-4.

Just basing it on the percentages.

Look at the first 4 games, Weber State (88.2%), UCLA (9.4%), NMSU (79.1%), USU (58.7%) - you'd expect 3-1 over 2-2 given the fact that they are favored in 3/4, but the math works out to be about the same, but higher likelihood SDSU starts off 2-2 instead of 3-1.

If you do the math on those percentages for SDSU's first four games:

3.8%....4-0

41.3%....3-1

42.1%....2-2

11.7%....1-3

0.9%.....0-4

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3 hours ago, TheTedfordTrain said:

Wait, you have a LEGO thread???LMAOOOO!!! Oh, fck. I’m going to shit myself. 

I think there is stuff you can take for that. Probably over the counter, too

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3 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Just basing it on the percentages.

Look at the first 4 games, Weber State (88.2%), UCLA (9.4%), NMSU (79.1%), USU (58.7%) - you'd expect 3-1 over 2-2 given the fact that they are favored in 3/4, but the math works out to be about the same, but higher likelihood SDSU starts off 2-2 instead of 3-1.

If you do the math on those percentages for SDSU's first four games:

3.8%....4-0

41.3%....3-1

42.1%....2-2

11.7%....1-3

0.9%.....0-4

SUDS only has a 9% chance of beating UCLA??

Thats not good. 

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4 hours ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Chuck Long's contract with SDSU allowed the school to terminate it "WITH cause" or "FOR cause" and among the contract's definition of "cause" was something like "unsatisfactory performance." Well, Chuck had the worst 3-year winning percentage in school history, with him at the helm the school suffered the biggest blowout loss in history, his final team surrendered more points and yards than any in school history, etc. yet SDSU never tried to rely on that provision to fire him. I complained like hell that the administration didn't because the $650K he was owed for the final year (which would be closer to $800K now) wasn't loose change for us. However, all they did was hire an employment law attorney to mediate and word is Chuck refused to budge an inch to compromise during that process.

Why didn't SDSU just refuse to pay him for the final year and force Chuck to sue for which HE would have had the burden of proof as the plaintiff? I was told by an insider something which made sense to me. That is, SDSU didn't do more not because it felt Chuck would win a breach of contract suit but for the most part because of the message it would send to prospective applicants down the road. In other words, despite proven incompetence being a listed reason to terminate a contract, almost nobody refuses to pay the remainder of a contract on that basis. Only moral turpitude offenses are the exception to that rule is what I was told and having followed things closely over the 11 years since, that appears to be the case.

Ouch. Not sure that bodes well for CSU... I hope a really, really good lawyer was involved and that every piece of "you suck, that's why you're being let go" was explained before the ink went to paper.

Thank you for that insight.

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59 minutes ago, Cincy said:

SUDS only has a 9% chance of beating UCLA??

Thats not good. 

According to ESPNs FPI, which I think is a bit biased toward P5. 

Fresno 14% vs. USC (line is about -10)

Boise 28% vs. Florida State (-4)

But typically, a 4 point dog wins 38% of the time, and a 10 point dog wins 23% of the time. So ESPN gives us ten percent lower odds than Vegas.

https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/

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On 7/11/2019 at 6:56 AM, Swoll Cracker said:

I like the over for CSU with a healthy Collin Hill, a revamped OL, and a couple of impact transfers on the defense.

 

 

I think the high end is 4 wins but I think 1-2 wins is also very possible.   As you may have seen me post before.. I think the OL could be a real issue for us.  We have only 1 SR, 2 JR's and one SO and none of them have played together for any significant amount of time.  one of the JR's is a JUCO and another JUCO hasn't shown up yet so its very debatable that he will help us at all.  If we can't move the ball (and I think we will struggle with this) the D will fatigue.  I do think that the D will be improved but it will be negated by being on the field for long periods and may end up statistically on par with last year.  Although i like the additions on that side of the ball.

Finished stadium 2017B.jpg

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On 7/12/2019 at 6:48 PM, Cincy said:

SUDS only has a 9% chance of beating UCLA??

Thats not good. 

The Aztecs are 0-21-1 all time against the Bruins.

No, that's NOT a typographical error.

I've been to four of those games and to UCLA's credit, despite playing an opponent from a markedly lower rated conference, they ALWAYS come out fired up for SDSU. Granted, under Rocky Long, SDSU teams are typically mentally and physically tougher than under most of his predecessors. However, I just don't think that's going to matter. When the chips are down, the big plays will be made by the Bruins, who should win by two TDs or so.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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28 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

The Aztecs are 0-21-1 all time against the Bruins.

No, that's NOT a typographical error.

I've been to four of those games and to UCLA's credit, despite playing an opponent from a markedly lower rated conference, they ALWAYS come out fired up for SDSU. Granted, under Rocky Long, SDSU teams are typically mentally and physically tougher than under most of his predecessors. However, I just don't think that's going to matter. When the chips are down, the big plays will be made by the Bruins, who should win by two TDs or so.

Fresno defeated the Bruins the last three times we have played them.  Last year the bulldogs hung 50 points on them in the Rose Bowl.   Now it's San Diego's turn... you can do it...

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On 7/10/2019 at 2:13 PM, kingpotato said:

Boise - 10
SDSU - 8
Fresno - 8
USU - 7
UNR - 6.5
AFA - 6.5
UH - 5.5
UW - 5.5
UNM - 5
UNLV - 4
CSU - 3.5
SJSU - 2.5

It looks like you are using the FanDuel numbers.  Right now (as of yesterday actually) if you want to put money down, the Westgate lines are below.  The numbers are close, differences:

BSU 9.5

AFA 8

USU 6.5

SDSU 8.5

UNR 6

There is no number here for UNM, but I've seen 4.5 used for them.  If UNM and UNLV faced each other this year it would be the "playing for coach's job" game.

USU is a good over value at 6.5

MWCoddsJuly14th.thumb.PNG.12744c7759b3d5e9a01ae7dfc4defa8b.PNG*

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22 minutes ago, BleedRebelRed said:

It looks like you are using the FanDuel numbers.  Right now (as of yesterday actually) if you want to put money down, the Westgate lines are below.  The numbers are close, differences:

BSU 9.5

AFA 8

USU 6.5

SDSU 8.5

UNR 6

There is no number here for UNM, but I've seen 4.5 used for them.  If UNM and UNLV faced each other this year it would be the "playing for coach's job" game.

USU is a good over value at 6.5

MWCoddsJuly14th.thumb.PNG.12744c7759b3d5e9a01ae7dfc4defa8b.PNG*

Wish there was a prop bet between the two worst teams in the MW.  Who wins more?  CSU or SanJose.

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29 minutes ago, BleedRebelRed said:

It looks like you are using the FanDuel numbers.  Right now (as of yesterday actually) if you want to put money down, the Westgate lines are below.  The numbers are close, differences:

BSU 9.5

AFA 8

USU 6.5

SDSU 8.5

UNR 6

There is no number here for UNM, but I've seen 4.5 used for them.  If UNM and UNLV faced each other this year it would be the "playing for coach's job" game.

USU is a good over value at 6.5

MWCoddsJuly14th.thumb.PNG.12744c7759b3d5e9a01ae7dfc4defa8b.PNG*

Yeah, that looks way better. Air Force was way too low. Utah State is a tough one. I have them at 6-7 wins... so 6.5 seems about right. I'd probably go with the over if you put a gun to my head. Boise at 9.5 looks way better than 10. That's tempting, but I'd probably stay away from that one too.

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On 7/11/2019 at 7:57 PM, SBBulldog85 said:

Athlon Sports 2019 pre-season prediction is Boise wins the Mountain, Fresno wins the West, and they play the 3 peat in the MWC CG, with advantage Boise... we shall see...

P.S.  Also I don't see why Boise fans are throwing shade on Brett Rypien, who is one of the most successful QBs in Boise State HISTORY.  Name another QB besides Moore who has 40 or more wins in their career...

It's because the gap between Moore and Rypien is huge.  Every QB looks bad compared to 50 wins and 3 losses.

Ryp was a great Bronco.  He never had a season has good as Hedrick's or Zabransky's senior season and that pinnacle is what Boise fans measure success by.  He was also given a hard hand.  Loosing so many coaches, so much attrition from Harsin's first two recruiting class (a problem rectified now due to new recruiting priorities).  The hit against WSU took him out of his mental state for a year.  People hating on Rypien can sit on a dick and spin.

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4 minutes ago, slappy said:

Yeah sounds about right for a great one.  

It was +++++ing brutal, that hit.  Rypien is not Josh Allen, with a massive frame that could absorb that hit.  If only Allen could consistently hit receivers, he would be really special.

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