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kingpotato

Over/Under wins for every MW team

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Boise - 10
SDSU - 8
Fresno - 8
USU - 7
UNR - 6.5
AFA - 6.5
UH - 5.5
UW - 5.5
UNM - 5
UNLV - 4
CSU - 3.5
SJSU - 2.5

Two of these look like easy money. Air Force will easily win more than 6 games and I can't fathom UNM going 6-6. The rest look pretty close. Although, if I had to pick one more, give me the under on the UNR spacepack. Purdue, at Oregon, at SDSU, at Fresno are all losses. That means they need to win all of the games they are favored in PLUS three of these; at USU, at Wyo, Hawaii, UNLV (rivalry game). 

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12 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

Boise - 10
SDSU - 8
Fresno - 8
USU - 7
UNR - 6.5
AFA - 6.5
UH - 5.5
UW - 5.5
UNM - 5
UNLV - 4
CSU - 3.5
SJSU - 2.5

Two of these look like easy money. Air Force will easily win more than 6 games and I can't fathom UNM going 6-6. The rest look pretty close. Although, if I had to pick one more, give me the under on the UNR spacepack. Purdue, at Oregon, at SDSU, at Fresno are all losses. That means they need to win all of the games they are favored in PLUS three of these; at USU, at Wyo, Hawaii, UNLV (rivalry game). 

Just curious why you’re so positive AF will win more than six games? Guess I’m not seeing an easy or certain path to 7-5.

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7 minutes ago, 307dude said:

Just curious why you’re so positive AF will win more than six games? Guess I’m not seeing an easy or certain path to 7-5.

They return more than any team in the nation, significantly more than any team in the nation IIRC.  Usually when you see that with academies you see pretty good team. 

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5 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

They return more than any team in the nation, significantly more than any team in the nation IIRC.  Usually when you see that with academies you see pretty good team. 

Fair enough. I still think 6.5 is a pretty good number. Can see them being underdogs against:

@Boise, @CU, @Navy, @Hawaii, Fresno, USU and Army

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54 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

Boise - 10
SDSU - 8
Fresno - 8
USU - 7
UNR - 6.5
AFA - 6.5
UH - 5.5
UW - 5.5
UNM - 5
UNLV - 4
CSU - 3.5
SJSU - 2.5

Two of these look like easy money. Air Force will easily win more than 6 games and I can't fathom UNM going 6-6. The rest look pretty close. Although, if I had to pick one more, give me the under on the UNR spacepack. Purdue, at Oregon, at SDSU, at Fresno are all losses. That means they need to win all of the games they are favored in PLUS three of these; at USU, at Wyo, Hawaii, UNLV (rivalry game). 

Unlv is an easy under again.  I do predict 3 wins and a big money extension for Sanchez.  He has earned it   

CSU is an easy under as well.  I have no idea what the attendance will be this year but I am guessing less than half full stadium.  

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6 minutes ago, 307dude said:

Just curious why you’re so positive AF will win more than six games? Guess I’m not seeing an easy or certain path to 7-5.

There are a bunch of reasons. They return a shet ton of starters which is rare for an academy school. They were much, much better than their record last year. They lost all of their close games. They gave top-25 teams Boise, USU, and Army all they could handle, but still lost. They lost one score games to UNR, Wyo, FAU, and SDSU. I watched that Wyoming game. That was a shocker. A two TD lead with 4 minutes to go for an academy school is a win 99.9% of the time. They also had the 2nd best rush defense in the league last year and return most of their front seven and 4 of 5 on the OL that led the league in rushing. They had injury and TO issues last year. If they can keep their QB healthy, they could be a double digit win team. Their biggest issue is speed in the secondary, but luckily, the league lost almost all of their top WRs, plus they get a regular starter in the secondary back that missed all of last year. They were actually 4th in the league in yardage and point differential behind only top-25 teams Fresno, Boise, and USU.

I actually have them as the 2nd best team in the league. I called USU to be the surprise team last year and Fresno the year before. I generally put a lot of emphasis on the lines (both sides) and defense. Close losses is something I pay attention to, as well. Those tend to even out in the long run. They weren't very far away from being a double digit winning team last year with a few breaks. All seven losses were by 10 or less points with five of those being a TD or less. 

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18 minutes ago, 307dude said:

Fair enough. I still think 6.5 is a pretty good number. Can see them being underdogs against:

@Boise, @CU, @Navy, @Hawaii, Fresno, USU and Army

Navy was a three win team last year and return eight total starters, including losing their top four tacklers. They should be a double digit favorite in that one. The rest of those will be close to pick em with AFA being favored in a few of them. 

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12 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

There are a bunch of reasons. They return a shet ton of starters which is rare for an academy school. They were much, much better than their record last year. They lost all of their close games. They gave top-25 teams Boise, USU, and Army all they could handle, but still lost. They lost one score games to UNR, Wyo, FAU, and SDSU. I watched that Wyoming game. That was a shocker. A two TD lead with 4 minutes to go for an academy school is a win 99.9% of the time. They also had the 2nd best rush defense in the league last year and return most of their front seven and 4 of 5 on the OL that led the league in rushing. They had injury and TO issues last year. If they can keep their QB healthy, they could be a double digit win team. Their biggest issue is speed in the secondary, but luckily, the league lost almost all of their top WRs, plus they get a regular starter in the secondary back that missed all of last year. They were actually 4th in the league in yardage and point differential behind only top-25 teams Fresno, Boise, and USU.

I actually have them as the 2nd best team in the league. I called USU to be the surprise team last year and Fresno the year before. I generally put a lot of emphasis on the lines (both sides) and defense. Close losses is something I pay attention to, as well. Those tend to even out in the long run. They weren't very far away from being a double digit winning team last year with a few breaks. All seven losses were by 10 or less points with five of those being a TD or less. 

I've got 

1. Boise

2. AFA

3. SDSU

4. Fresno

 

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3 minutes ago, slappy said:

Unlv is an easy under again.  I do predict 3 wins and a big money extension for Sanchez.  He has earned it   

CSU is an easy under as well.  I have no idea what the attendance will be this year but I am guessing less than half full stadium.  

I think UNLV is going to be better this year (team wise, maybe not record wise). When Armani Rodgers isn't injured their offense is pretty dang good. Defensively they weren't good, but their rush defense improved by quite a bit under a new DC last year. They also are bringing in a lot of JC talent on that side. I don't think they'll be good defensively, but I think they'll be better on that side of the ball. Their schedule in pretty tough with Arkansas State, Vandy, and Northwestern OOC, but with an FCS school that means they'd have to go 2-9 in the rest. Possible, but unlikely. Four seems about right.

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26 minutes ago, slappy said:

Unlv is an easy under again.  I do predict 3 wins and a big money extension for Sanchez.  He has earned it   

CSU is an easy under as well.  I have no idea what the attendance will be this year but I am guessing less than half full stadium.  

Pretty tough to bet against those low win totals.  Nothing easy about it in my book. 

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15 minutes ago, Wyobraska said:

Pretty tough to bet against those low win totals.  Nothing easy about it in my book. 

Usually I would agree.  But both programs are so far below the rest of the country it makes it pretty easy.   Basically the MW has 3 San Jose State caliber programs.  We really need to set some minimum requirements for those 3.   Then we need to enforce it.  I like Unlv and even CSU but this is rediculous and needs to be addressed.  

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9 minutes ago, Bob said:

USU is an easy under

I'd take the under before I'd take the over, for sure. They should be a 6 or 7 win team. Their defense is going to be very good and will keep them in most games. This is another one I'd personally stay away from. 

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1 minute ago, slappy said:

Usually I would agree.  But both programs are so far below the rest of the country it makes it pretty easy.   Basically the MW has 3 San Jose State caliber programs.  We really need to set some minimum requirements for those 3.   Then we need to enforce it.  I like Unlv and even CSU but this is rediculous and needs to be addressed.  

It wasn't that long ago that Wyoming was the SJSU of the league

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19 minutes ago, Bob said:

New coaching staff.. I don't trust their offense to roll like it has.

Jordan Love will make the transition a lot easier.  That kid is talented and just having him will elevate their offense.  

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15 minutes ago, Bob said:

New coaching staff.. I don't trust their offense to roll like it has.

Their offense is going to take a hit, for sure. Not only did they lose a ton, but their schedule is monumentally more difficult. GA is a proven HC and Sanford is a proven OC. They aren't gunna put up the numbers they did last year and I have a big concern for their OL, but like I said, their defense will keep them in games so they aren't gunna have to put up 50 to win games. 

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9 minutes ago, slappy said:

Come on.  U want me to do the safety dance.  

It pleases me that Boise is other MW teams signature win. That one time they beat Boise was truly a glorious day. 

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4 minutes ago, aggzilla said:

Agreed, with USU and UNR at the top of the next tier.

Agreed on USU. They would be the next team. I'm not sold on UNR. They lose some playmakers on both sides of the ball. Hawai'i should be better, but their schedule is really tough and their defense is shite. They do return a lot, though. 

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