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Tulsa Guy

Dallas Morning News on Big 12 Expansion

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1 minute ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Well, Big Ten wanted to bloat their market numbers, so no, those Big12 schools don't make sense unless it is Texas, and OU.  

And this hypothetical exercise is fruitless.  AAC isn't losing anyone, MWC isn't losing anyone.  Grab a Snickers, kids.  It's gonna be awhile for expansion to happen.

agreed.

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All this Conference-swapping & musical chairs is pure conjecture on our parts as Ignorant Fans.  So here's my ignorant thoughts...

a) B12 will stand where it is, as OU & UT are plenty happy w/ their $$$'s & access to NC Game in Fball.  KU & KSU, OU/OSU, are tied at the hips to each other.  

b) B12 adding any G5 teams is NOT likely under today's Biz models.  Tooooo much risk, not enough rewards... especially for these uber conservative College Prez's who vote on these Acquisitions.  

c) the only reason B12 would expand w/ G5's (IMHO) is if such expansion could be done on a "Try-before you-Buy" & "Lower Rev-share" biz model.  EG, use an "Associate Member" or "Category #2" membership that allows the B12 to Try-out & use any 2 or 4 new G5's, while paying these type of new Additions 50% less than a Full Member gets for 3 to 5 yrs, after which a Full Membership is offered @ 75%, then Rev is grown to 100% over 3 more years.  During the initial 2 or 3 yrs the B12 could say Good-Bye to any Category #2 member, and pay that G5 approx $6M for their time & efforts w/ the B12.  

Such a "new acquisition Biz-Model" would allow the B12 to temporarily add a BYU (very attractive, but also very crazy), or a Cincy (try them out as a Travel Partner w/ WVU), or a CSU (see precisely how well that Denver market responds?), or a UHouston (see precisely how they effect the TV markets & recruiting grounds for the B12)... or Boise (see if they can bring up their academic standards quickly), Memphis, SDSU or UNLV.  

IMHO >>> the Conference who gets creative in this regard, will smoke the other P5's rapidly. 

Heck, the B12 could even invite 4 to 6 such G5's, place those 4 to 6 schools in their own mini-Conference, and give them each 4 more games from the B12 full-members.  Thus not impacting the B12 schedules horribly.  B12 keeps the 2 they like the best after their 3 yrs Trial period.

 

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19 minutes ago, RAMification said:

All this Conference-swapping & musical chairs is pure conjecture on our parts as Ignorant Fans.  So here's my ignorant thoughts...

a) B12 will stand where it is, as OU & UT are plenty happy w/ their $$$'s & access to NC Game in Fball.  KU & KSU, OU/OSU, are tied at the hips to each other.  

b) B12 adding any G5 teams is NOT likely under today's Biz models.  Tooooo much risk, not enough rewards... especially for these uber conservative College Prez's who vote on these Acquisitions.  

c) the only reason B12 would expand w/ G5's (IMHO) is if such expansion could be done on a "Try-before you-Buy" & "Lower Rev-share" biz model.  EG, use an "Associate Member" or "Category #2" membership that allows the B12 to Try-out & use any 2 or 4 new G5's, while paying these type of new Additions 50% less than a Full Member gets for 3 to 5 yrs, after which a Full Membership is offered @ 75%, then Rev is grown to 100% over 3 more years.  During the initial 2 or 3 yrs the B12 could say Good-Bye to any Category #2 member, and pay that G5 approx $6M for their time & efforts w/ the B12.  

Such a "new acquisition Biz-Model" would allow the B12 to temporarily add a BYU (very attractive, but also very crazy), or a Cincy (try them out as a Travel Partner w/ WVU), or a CSU (see precisely how well that Denver market responds?), or a UHouston (see precisely how they effect the TV markets & recruiting grounds for the B12)... or Boise (see if they can bring up their academic standards quickly), Memphis, SDSU or UNLV.  

IMHO >>> the Conference who gets creative in this regard, will smoke the other P5's rapidly. 

Heck, the B12 could even invite 4 to 6 such G5's, place those 4 to 6 schools in their own mini-Conference, and give them each 4 more games from the B12 full-members.  Thus not impacting the B12 schedules horribly.  B12 keeps the 2 they like the best after their 3 yrs Trial period.

 

I think Pac12 and Big12 are looking back and seeing a zero value-added with UU (little national success with a small market) and TCU (in a market where UT is likely the dominating team) and should be cautious on any notion of taking G5 schools into their conference.

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19 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

I think Pac12 and Big12 are looking back and seeing a zero value-added with UU (little national success with a small market) and TCU (in a market where UT is likely the dominating team) and should be cautious on any notion of taking G5 schools into their conference.

not sure where you're coming from w/ that post... UU & TCU seem UBER successful add's for Pee12 & B12 in every measurement I can think of.  Being in moderate size TV markets kept the Earth from shaking, but they did everything they were asked to do.

Hmmm... help please??

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Aw+Jeez,+not+this+shit+again!.jpg

No one's expanding.  No one's contracting.  No one's going anywhere, especially from G5 to P5.  The only movement left is finding a home for the wayward lost children of Independentville.    Sure ND, Army & BYU will continue on the indy wagon.  But Liberty, UMass & NMSU need to find homes or they'll end up dropping down to FCS.

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BCS is to Football what Fox News is to Journalism

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14 minutes ago, Boise fan said:

Aw+Jeez,+not+this+shit+again!.jpg

No one's expanding.  No one's contracting.  No one's going anywhere, especially from G5 to P5.  The only movement left is finding a home for the wayward lost children of Independentville.    Sure ND, Army & BYU will continue on the indy wagon.  But Liberty, UMass & NMSU need to find homes or they'll end up dropping down to FCS.

if UMass if finally ready to go all-in this time I'd like to see them and Liberty join the MAC.

UMass, Buffalo, Liberty, Ohio, Kent State, Akron, and Toledo would make for a strong MAC East IMHO.

NIU, WMU, CMU, EMU, Ball State, BGSU, and Miami (OH) would be the MAC West.

I'm sure ESPN would toss them a few extra crumbs for the additions.

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49 minutes ago, RAMification said:

not sure where you're coming from w/ that post... UU & TCU seem UBER successful add's for Pee12 & B12 in every measurement I can think of.  Being in moderate size TV markets kept the Earth from shaking, but they did everything they were asked to do.

Hmmm... help please??

And his description of TCU ignores the fact that Disney and Fox both had input in the B12 process (the parties were in negotiations on a new TV deal at the time), and signed off on the addition of TCU.  TCU may not be the biggest fish in the pond, but it nonetheless brought value that a decade plus of winning brings with it.  It's why TCU was invited and not, say, SMU, which is in the same TV market.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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52 minutes ago, RAMification said:

not sure where you're coming from w/ that post... UU & TCU seem UBER successful add's for Pee12 & B12 in every measurement I can think of.  Being in moderate size TV markets kept the Earth from shaking, but they did everything they were asked to do.

Hmmm... help please??

They have not done anything to raise the conference profile, nor have they added that many eyeballs.  They aren't anchors, that is for certain, but they aren't doing more than any other average member of the conference, so if we see an average program alongside other average programs, then there is no value added.  They take as much as they give.

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4 minutes ago, RSF said:

And his description of TCU ignores the fact that Disney and Fox both had input in the B12 process (the parties were in negotiations on a new TV deal at the time), and signed off on the addition of TCU.  TCU may not be the biggest fish in the pond, but it nonetheless brought value that a decade plus of winning brings with it.  It's why TCU was invited and not, say, SMU, which is in the same TV market.

That market was already accounted for by Texas, with OU overlapping.  TCU was the best program available at that time after Mizzou and Aggie left.

 

Don't misinterpret what I am saying, TCU is doing well, as is Utah.  But they aren't really pushing the conference forward like a USC or Texas can, hence they are more of a zero-sum addition.  Much better than goddamn Rutgers...

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49 minutes ago, Boise fan said:

Aw+Jeez,+not+this+shit+again!.jpg

No one's expanding.  No one's contracting.  No one's going anywhere, especially from G5 to P5.  The only movement left is finding a home for the wayward lost children of Independentville.    Sure ND, Army & BYU will continue on the indy wagon.  But Liberty, UMass & NMSU need to find homes or they'll end up dropping down to FCS.

As far as NMSU,  oly sports are doing great in the WAC.  Men's basketball specifically is on a multi year run that places it in the top 2-3 MWC teams in terms of RPI and now NET.  The WAC has ranked higher than Big West, Big Sky, and CUSA.  As long as it isn't having issues scheduling FBS teams, and just as importantly teams are travelling to Las Cruces, there is no need to drop down to FCS.  The AD is also balancing the athletic budget.  That is critical as coaching salaries are built into a realistic budget.  If there is an FCS conference that would allow a step up in basketball, i think there might be some interest down the road.  If we were burning through cash we didn't have to stay FBS, sure.  I was as skeptical as anyone in 2016 when the Sun Belt announced Idaho and NMSU had 2 years left in conference, primarily because i worried about scheduling teams.  To my pleasant surprise, it wasn't the Sun Belt or CUSA, but the MWC who stepped in and help fill out schedule for the next 4 years.  Home and home include SDSU, USU, Wyoming, Fresno, UNM (as always) , Hawaii, SJSU, and Nevada.  UTEP, which is 30 minutes down the road, also plays us every year.  UMass has been added as an indy. I don't think NMSU will moving down in the future, but if it does it won't be in the next 5-6 years.  Who knows what happens 10 years from now.  By then, P5 could have taken their ball and formed a new division.

I also have my doubts about the stability of all the P5 conferences.  Never underestimate greed.  No matter how much money SEC and BiG schools make, there is always MORE.  My guess is the B12 will be looking for teams at some point in the not so distant future.  If it isn't them, than it will be someone else.  And those moves will trickle down and force AAC or a MWC to backfill.  

Here is a look at NMSU's upcoming schedules.  2020 and 2021 look solid, and 2022 is shaping up nicely with 9 teams on tap.  It sure as heck beats any FCS schedule i can think of.

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/new-mexico-state/

 

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5 hours ago, NorthWestCowboy said:

I think it's less likely that conferences will grow again but rather they'll start scheduling more OOC Power programs.  This is particularly true if the playoff expands as one or even two losses won't automatically exclude a team from making the playoff.  Traditional rivalries that fans and networks care about are already taking a hit with large conferences and further expansion will only exasperate this.  Networks will pay more money for better matchups whether in or out of conference.  Texas and Oklahoma are the only real difference makers out there and as long as they are making relatively similar money to what they would in the SEC or B1G I don't see them moving.  Especially since the Big XII appears to be an easier path to the playoff.

They will grow again because of money. It's all about money now.If there is a chance to make more money, the P5 will expand to get that extra money which at the same time wouldn't be surprised if they broke off from the NCAA around the same time as well. Scheduling more among themselves is the first step in the process. 

In regards to the playoff, this "committee" will put in whoever they want to put in. If its a team they believe will bring ratings and money to the network its on, that is going to be a team in the playoff. 

I would say in the next 4-5 years we probably will start to see another movement starting among the P5 to possibly expand or leave NCAA all together. 

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If there is an eight team playoff, conferences with ten or twelve members are likely very stable.   By 2035, the fourteen and fifteen member conferences might see an situation where the SEC East along with the best football schools from the ACC break off into a ten team conference because so many of those top schools are located close to each other and it makes so much more sense to cut up the pie ten or twelve ways than fourteen, fifteen or sixteen.  There are lots of interesting possibilities in that time frame but nothing in the next decade or so likely to change much.

While I don't think that Texas or Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 could happen in any reasonable scenario, the possibility that Kansas goes to the Big Ten  in 2024-ish where their valuable Jayhawks brand can be added to the conference network is not implausible.  Men's basketball is where a conference network seems to really have value because that is what you get eyeballs for; football is about games on ABC, ESPN and CBS.  West Virginia's geographic distance from the rest of the Big 12 would make them the only possible candidate to replace Missouri in the SEC East and if Kansas is invited to the Big Ten, only Missouri really makes sense as a sixteenth member due to the historic heated rivalry between Kansas and Missouri.

The Pac 12 could still contract at some point because I don't understand how else a private equity investor would cash out.  An investor would have to recognize the Pac 12 has ten brands that should be competitive nationally and two which really are at their ceiling already and only have the eleventh and twelfth most revenue in the conference and success on the field.  WSU and OSU would need to be 'cashed out' with some significant assets in order for them to agree to whatever plan a private investor might have to restructure the Pac 12 so I don't think that the speculation about Pac 12 contraction should go away entirely.

Washington State has not done well dealing with a new state law which requires universities to account for capital project debt as actual debt (crazy, right?).  first, they estimated their maximum debt to be $85 million dollars and then decline.  As of June 7, Wazzou believes their operating deficit will peak at $105 million dollars and then decline.  https://www.apnews.com/d6a5c5067bff42849a7dc9f70e56c757  The Cougars already have the smallest athletic budget in the Pac 12 and not being able to spend with no limit as under past athletic administrations so it will be interesting to see what happens as the university keeps telling the state legislature that they are eight figures in the red year after year. 

I don't know much about Oregon State but they are severely disadvantaged vis a vis Oregon in terms of alumni support and prominence so it's really hard for them to get donors ,etc. due to Oregon actively competing for every single person who isn't an alum for donations to a football program located in state of Oregon.  If you want to brush up against Phil Knight, that isn't going to happen in Corvallis.

My speculation about contraction is based on how obviously Washington State and Oregon State can't really follow what Utah did to gain prominence because Oregon and Washington are already in that spot in those states.  However, I think that as MW members WSU and OSU would add a lot of value to the conference because there are people in those states who have an interest in either the Beavers or the Cougars and there are a larger number of cable subscribers there than in most western states; Boise State gets a lot of eyeballs in Oregon and Washington already now.  I presume that WSU and OSU would not have any debt so they could spend their athletic budget on coaches and recruiting and with close to their current resources they would compete consistently and successfully in the Mountain West.

 

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On 6/16/2019 at 3:42 PM, Cincy said:

UNLV brings LV, Nevada has solid hoops and improving football. 

CSU brings.....not much at all for either football or hoops. CSU does bring huge stadium payoff debt, though I don’t think that’s a selling point  

 

UNLV brings Las Vegas like SJSU brings San Jose.

 

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16 hours ago, Bruininthebay said:

If there is an eight team playoff, conferences with ten or twelve members are likely very stable.   By 2035, the fourteen and fifteen member conferences might see an situation where the SEC East along with the best football schools from the ACC break off into a ten team conference because so many of those top schools are located close to each other and it makes so much more sense to cut up the pie ten or twelve ways than fourteen, fifteen or sixteen.  There are lots of interesting possibilities in that time frame but nothing in the next decade or so likely to change much.

While I don't think that Texas or Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 could happen in any reasonable scenario, the possibility that Kansas goes to the Big Ten  in 2024-ish where their valuable Jayhawks brand can be added to the conference network is not implausible.  Men's basketball is where a conference network seems to really have value because that is what you get eyeballs for; football is about games on ABC, ESPN and CBS.  West Virginia's geographic distance from the rest of the Big 12 would make them the only possible candidate to replace Missouri in the SEC East and if Kansas is invited to the Big Ten, only Missouri really makes sense as a sixteenth member due to the historic heated rivalry between Kansas and Missouri.

The Pac 12 could still contract at some point because I don't understand how else a private equity investor would cash out.  An investor would have to recognize the Pac 12 has ten brands that should be competitive nationally and two which really are at their ceiling already and only have the eleventh and twelfth most revenue in the conference and success on the field.  WSU and OSU would need to be 'cashed out' with some significant assets in order for them to agree to whatever plan a private investor might have to restructure the Pac 12 so I don't think that the speculation about Pac 12 contraction should go away entirely.

Washington State has not done well dealing with a new state law which requires universities to account for capital project debt as actual debt (crazy, right?).  first, they estimated their maximum debt to be $85 million dollars and then decline.  As of June 7, Wazzou believes their operating deficit will peak at $105 million dollars and then decline.  https://www.apnews.com/d6a5c5067bff42849a7dc9f70e56c757  The Cougars already have the smallest athletic budget in the Pac 12 and not being able to spend with no limit as under past athletic administrations so it will be interesting to see what happens as the university keeps telling the state legislature that they are eight figures in the red year after year. 

I don't know much about Oregon State but they are severely disadvantaged vis a vis Oregon in terms of alumni support and prominence so it's really hard for them to get donors ,etc. due to Oregon actively competing for every single person who isn't an alum for donations to a football program located in state of Oregon.  If you want to brush up against Phil Knight, that isn't going to happen in Corvallis.

My speculation about contraction is based on how obviously Washington State and Oregon State can't really follow what Utah did to gain prominence because Oregon and Washington are already in that spot in those states.  However, I think that as MW members WSU and OSU would add a lot of value to the conference because there are people in those states who have an interest in either the Beavers or the Cougars and there are a larger number of cable subscribers there than in most western states; Boise State gets a lot of eyeballs in Oregon and Washington already now.  I presume that WSU and OSU would not have any debt so they could spend their athletic budget on coaches and recruiting and with close to their current resources they would compete consistently and successfully in the Mountain West.

 

I don't see a P5, especially out west, ever voluntarily moving to a G5 conference under any circumstance.  Washington State got as high as 10 last year i believe.  In the last 4 years they have won 9,8,9, and 11 games in 2018.  They have also gone bowling in 5 of the last 6 years.  

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