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CV147

Empty Planet

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I don't know if a topic has been started on this. If so, I apologize.

A  political scientist and a journalist from Canada tested assumptions from the U.N. on overpopulation and came to a conclusion that it was all wrong. They wrote a book.

Instead of overpopulation they predict a future human population decline, much the same as is happening in most of the developed world. The culprits are education of girls, and the spread of technology that helps women make more informed decisions on how many babies they want to have.

The impact is that the global population will peak within a few decades, and then decline. I thought it was interesting, as the common knowledge is that we are headed toward a future of scarcity and environmental ruin. But maybe we're headed toward a future of billions of old people with a significantly smaller population taking care of them, which presents its own problems.

I think it's always good to challenge conventional wisdom.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-world-might-actually-run-out-of-people/

Quote

But Empty Planet is not a book about statistics so much as it is about what’s driving the choices people are making during the fastest period of change in human history. Ibbitson and Bricker take their readers inside the Indian slums of Delhi and the operating rooms of Sao Paulo, Brazil, to eavesdrop on the conversations young professionals have at dinner parties in Brussels and over drinks at a young professionals’ club in Nairobi. The end result is a compelling challenge to long-entrenched demography dogma, Trojan Horse-d inside an accessible, vivid portrait of modern families from every walk of life.

 

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Interesting concept, but there are a lot of third world countries that have no access to birth control, not to mention Catholics and Mormons that are still trying to rule the world by cranking out as many babies as possible. Nature will ultimately limit population through famine and plagues, and then there are always wars. 

The world population has exploded in the last ninety years going from 2 billion to almost 8 billion people. The earths resources can’t sustain the same rate of growth for another ninety years. The growth rate is slowly declining but not that much. 

Here is an article discussing population sustainability.

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20160311-how-many-people-can-our-planet-really-support

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We hit 6 billion in 1999, 7 billion in 2012, and will be 8 billion in 2023.

I think population will level off and maintain around 10-11 billion.

46 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

 Catholics and Mormons that are still trying to rule the world by cranking out as many babies as possible. 

They’ve got nothing on Muslims, who’ll be 1/4 of the worlds population by 2030.

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1 hour ago, CV147 said:

I don't know if a topic has been started on this. If so, I apologize.

A  political scientist and a journalist from Canada tested assumptions from the U.N. on overpopulation and came to a conclusion that it was all wrong. They wrote a book.

Instead of overpopulation they predict a future human population decline, much the same as is happening in most of the developed world. The culprits are education of girls, and the spread of technology that helps women make more informed decisions on how many babies they want to have.

The impact is that the global population will peak within a few decades, and then decline. I thought it was interesting, as the common knowledge is that we are headed toward a future of scarcity and environmental ruin. But maybe we're headed toward a future of billions of old people with a significantly smaller population taking care of them, which presents its own problems.

I think it's always good to challenge conventional wisdom.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-world-might-actually-run-out-of-people/

 

I’ve mentioned this before. The concept is called Peak Child and many believe we’ve already hit it.  Basically there won’t be any more children then there currently are.  The population will continue to grow for a few decades before declining and leveling off around 3-4 billion people.  

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1 hour ago, mugtang said:

I’ve mentioned this before. The concept is called Peak Child and many believe we’ve already hit it.  Basically there won’t be any more children then there currently are.  The population will continue to grow for a few decades before declining and leveling off around 3-4 billion people.  

Thats one helluva decline from the current almost 8 billion people. 

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1 minute ago, soupslam1 said:

Thats one helluva decline from the current almost 8 billion people. 

I’m not saying it’ll happen over night.  It’ll happen over the course of a century.  The population of the world is aging so it’s not too far fetched to think it could take a significant decline in the coming decades. 

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The authors found that in Africa, India, the Middle East, and in Hispanic America that women want less kids. And when they want less kids, birthrate follows accordingly over time.

I thought it was something interesting to consider as an alternative to the hysteria about overpopulation.

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Interesting. One problem, of course, is that even a declining world population can continue to deplete the planet's resources ever more quickly as the standard of living in developing countries continues to grow.

I remember how back in the 90s, one of my science text books described this future scenario of "when every Chinese person has a car" and how it would create choking air pollution, congestion, etc. Turns out the scenario was shockingly accurate, and China isn't even halfway there. 

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9 hours ago, I am Ram said:

Interesting. One problem, of course, is that even a declining world population can continue to deplete the planet's resources ever more quickly as the standard of living in developing countries continues to grow.

I remember how back in the 90s, one of my science text books described this future scenario of "when every Chinese person has a car" and how it would create choking air pollution, congestion, etc. Turns out the scenario was shockingly accurate, and China isn't even halfway there. 

Thomas Friedman kinda nailed it.

Hotflatandcrowded.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Orange said:

Thomas Friedman kinda nailed it.

Hotflatandcrowded.jpg

LOL Of course you like Thomas Friedman. 

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