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ltcpilot

How tight are the MWC BBall Standings?

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How tight are the MWC standings?  Depending on what happens this weekend you could have 4 teams 1/2 game out of 4th and 6 teams 1 1/2 games out of 4th. 

Here's one AF fan's projection on what could happen this week and how it could/would affect standings.  Yep, as a homer, I think AF has a chance to beat UNLV again but they will have to play their A game to do it.  In this mock standings when we wake up Thursday morning you find the home teams all covering with the exception of UNLV where AF does seem to play well but they will be facing a UNLV team with Diong back who did not play in game one.  Note the standings current are listed with tiebreaker with AF one win over BSU and (assuming they win Tuesday) two over UNLV.  I think USU gets the win but the resurging Cowboys could pull off the upset, but mostly likely not on the road. Either way the 2/3 spot is solid at FSU and USU with one or the other in the 2nd sport depending on outcomes.  If BSU wins they would jump to 7-6 and 4th place unless SDSU beat CSU.  

 

1 NEV 10-1 Bye  
2 FSU 9-3 hm BSU Win
3 USU 9-3 hm Wyo Win
4 SDSU 6-5 @ CSU Lose
5 AF 6-6 @ UNLV Win
6 BSU 6-6 @ FSU Lose
7 UNLV 6-6 hm AF Lose
8 NM 5-7 hm SJSU Win
9 CSU 5-7 hm SDSU Win
10 Wyo 2-9 @ USU Lose
11 SJSU 0-10 @ NM Lose

.

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1 hour ago, ltcpilot said:

How tight are the MWC standings?  Depending on what happens this weekend you could have 4 teams 1/2 game out of 4th and 6 teams 1 1/2 games out of 4th. 

Here's one AF fan's projection on what could happen this week and how it could/would affect standings.  Yep, as a homer, I think AF has a chance to beat UNLV again but they will have to play their A game to do it.  In this mock standings when we wake up Thursday morning you find the home teams all covering with the exception of UNLV where AF does seem to play well but they will be facing a UNLV team with Diong back who did not play in game one.  Note the standings current are listed with tiebreaker with AF one win over BSU and (assuming they win Tuesday) two over UNLV.  I think USU gets the win on the road but the resurging Cowboys could pull off the upset.  Either way the 2/3 spot is solid at FSU and USU with one or the other in the 2nd sport depending on outcomes.  If BSU wins they would jump to 7-6 and 4th place unless SDSU beat CSU.  

 

1 NEV 10-1 Bye  
2 FSU 9-3 hm BSU Win
3 USU 9-3 @ Wyo Win
4 SDSU 6-5 @ CSU Lose
5 AF 6-6 @ UNLV Win
6 BSU 6-6 @ FSU Lose
7 UNLV 6-6 hm AF Lose
8 NM 5-7 hm SJSU Win
9 CSU 5-7 hm SDSU Win
10 Wyo 2-9 hm USU Lose
11 SJSU 0-10 @ NM Lose

.

Wyoming-Utah State is in Logan on Wednesday.

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1 hour ago, Wyovanian said:

Wyoming-Utah State is in Logan on Wednesday.

Thanks fixed. I think USU gets the win at home.

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30 minutes ago, ph90702 said:

UNLV will finish top five, so I’m feeling good.

0jDoQiF.gif

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Just now, Cincy said:

0jDoQiF.gif

My REALISTIC goal coming into the season was a top five finish.

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As 90702 implied, the only thing that matters for everybody except UNR is finishing in the top 5. (The Wolf Pack are a lock for the NCAAs but a couple losses to MW dregs could send them to the East with a bad seed.)

It's almost inconceivable that Fresno and USU won't finish 2 and 3 and it's equally inconceivable that Wyo and - cough, cough - SJSU can finish in the top 5. So the rest of the regular season really comes down to how SDSU, Air Force, Boise, UNLV, UNM and CSU play. Considering that AF literally never wins MW tournament games, if I'm UNR, Fresno and USU, I'm going to root hard for the Flyboys to get that first-round bye.

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14 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

As 90702 implied, the only thing that matters for everybody except UNR is finishing in the top 5. (The Wolf Pack are a lock for the NCAAs but a couple losses to MW dregs could send them to the East with a bad seed.)

It's almost inconceivable that Fresno and USU won't finish 2 and 3 and it's equally inconceivable that Wyo and - cough, cough - SJSU can finish in the top 5. So the rest of the regular season really comes down to how SDSU, Air Force, Boise, UNLV, UNM and CSU play. Considering that AF literally never wins MW tournament games, if I'm UNR, Fresno and USU, I'm going to root hard for the Flyboys to get that first-round bye.

I'll take it!  One game at a time and it will be an interesting matchup on a Tuesday game in Vegas for AF vs UNLV.  Scheduling to note, UNLV comes off the tough loss to Fresno State at home while AF is coming off it's first bye of the season (finally). AF BYE week vs short turnaround for UNLV (and with playing Tuesday not Wednesday its a good rest for the Falcons but one less day of 'sitting' between games with the BYE. 

 

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5 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

As 90702 implied, the only thing that matters for everybody except UNR is finishing in the top 5. (The Wolf Pack are a lock for the NCAAs but a couple losses to MW dregs could send them to the East with a bad seed.)

It's almost inconceivable that Fresno and USU won't finish 2 and 3 and it's equally inconceivable that Wyo and - cough, cough - SJSU can finish in the top 5. So the rest of the regular season really comes down to how SDSU, Air Force, Boise, UNLV, UNM and CSU play. Considering that AF literally never wins MW tournament games, if I'm UNR, Fresno and USU, I'm going to root hard for the Flyboys to get that first-round bye.

It’s really San Diego State, Boise State, and UNLV battling for the top five.  It’s not happening for Colorado State, Air Force, and New Mexico.

I would be shocked if my UNLV doesn’t finish top five.  They have four games against the bottom five teams plus Boise State and San Diego State at home.  They should win five more games and finish 11-7.

San Diego State has the toughest remaining schedule.  They only have two games against the bottom five teams.  They have UNR twice, a game at Utah State, and a home game against Fresno State.  I think they lose all four plus their game at UNLV.  That would give them a 9-9 finish.

Boise State is between UNLV and San Diego State in strength of schedule.  They have three games against the bottom five teams.  Two are at home.  One is on the road.  I think they win the home ones and lose the road one.  I think they lose to UNLV again plus Utah State and Fresno State.  I think they finish 8-10.

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1 minute ago, ltcpilot said:

I'll take it!  One game at a time and it will be an interesting matchup on a Tuesday game in Vegas for AF vs UNLV.  Scheduling to note, UNLV comes off the tough loss to Fresno State at home while AF is coming off it's first bye of the season (finally). AF BYE week vs short turnaround for UNLV.

You're a good guy. How in the world do you manage to tolerate us SOBs from the rest of the conference?

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Just now, SleepingGiantsFan said:

You're a good guy. How in the world do you manage to tolerate us SOBs from the rest of the conference?

Let's see, 36 years of marriage to the same beautiful woman, flew 19 of 20 years in fighter squadrons throughout the AF and after retiring there got my current job and have been sitting in an airline plane for 22 years  listening to the other pilot blab his or her way across the country....oh yeah....AND am an AF basketball fan.  Add all that up and it means I have very, very thick skin!  GO FALCONS

 

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1 hour ago, ltcpilot said:

Thanks fixed. I think USU gets the win at home.

 

Same here.  But c'mon Pokes, you got one more conference win in ya?  Do it for your fellow cowboys

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Leon Rice has a new strategy this year.  Play the first day in the tournament so you have a shot at winning one game and playing a second.  He's not so good at that as the favorite.   6th place or Bust is the slogan. 

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I'm with him on that. We have done horrible with the first round bye sleepwalking through the game and getting the loss. 

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2 hours ago, roughrider said:

Leon Rice has a new strategy this year.  Play the first day in the tournament so you have a shot at winning one game and playing a second.  He's not so good at that as the favorite.   6th place or Bust is the slogan. 

I have Boise State fifth.  UNLV fourth and San Diego State sixth.

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12 minutes ago, ph90702 said:

I have Boise State fifth.  UNLV fourth and San Diego State sixth.

No you don’t. Check your post from five hours ago. 

Derp!

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6 hours ago, ph90702 said:

I would be shocked if my UNLV doesn’t finish top five.  They have four games against the bottom five teams plus Boise State and San Diego State at home.  They should win five more games and finish 11-7.

4 road games in the last 7. Rebs probably win 3 or 4 games. 

Im pulling for the 10-8 finish, but not hopeful.

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7 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

fwiw

 

I had UNLV coming in fourth before looking at KenPom.  Btw, the game-by-game has us going 11-7, but adding the win probabilities only gets us 10-8.

No way Menzies is fired with a fourth place finish.

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