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Bruininthebay

American Athletic and ESPN do not reach agreement during exclusive negotiations for new TV deal

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I've also add I've made my guess. 6 years, 300 million total, or 4.17 million per team running til 2026 to stay with ESPN.

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Best of luck to you.  I sincerely hope you get it, but I think it's a pipe dream.

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17 hours ago, UofMTigers said:

I've also add I've made my guess. 6 years, 300 million total, or 4.17 million per team running til 2026 to stay with ESPN.

That sounds like a good guess to me and props for your pragmatism versus the blinders attitude of so many AAC fans. I'll add this.

1. One thing all AAC fans will be correct about is that the MWC isn't going to get as much per school as the AAC will. At its inception, the AAC had only a minute more value than the MWC but the gap is slowly but surely widening. Not because Aresco is the magician some on the AAC board think he is but simply because he isn't the total numbnutz that Craig Thompson is.

2. Therefore, if the AAC gets ~$4.17M per school as you predict, my guess is King Craig will get MWC schools ~$3.17M per school. But let's get down to brass tacks. In this day and age, one million dollars per year for major well managed universities (as most in the MWC are) hardly amounts to diddly squat.

3. That million dollar difference will make some AAC fans giddy about the value of being in the - I'm laughing as I type - P6 Conference and it may have some psychological value to people who actually matter but in the final analysis it might actually be a good thing for the MWC. I say that because the MWC is in dire need of a swift kick in the ass.

4. What kind of kick in the ass could result from additional evidence that the MWC is falling behind the AAC? Two things hopefully. One, the firing of Craig Thompson and the replacing of him by someone who is at least competent to say nothing of the possibility the conference presidents could find a commissioner who is actually GOOD. Two, the forcing out of San Jose State which will forever sit in the cart and expect to be pulled along by everybody else while demanding the same amount of the modest revenue pie.

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9 hours ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

That sounds like a good guess to me and props for your pragmatism versus the blinders attitude of so many AAC fans. I'll add this.

1. One thing all AAC fans will be correct about is that the MWC isn't going to get as much per school as the AAC will. At its inception, the AAC had only a minute more value than the MWC but the gap is slowly but surely widening. Not because Aresco is the magician some on the AAC board think he is but simply because he isn't the total numbnutz that Craig Thompson is.

2. Therefore, if the AAC gets ~$4.17M per school as you predict, my guess is King Craig will get MWC schools ~$3.17M per school. But let's get down to brass tacks. In this day and age, one million dollars per year for major well managed universities (as most in the MWC are) hardly amounts to diddly squat.

3. That million dollar difference will make some AAC fans giddy about the value of being in the - I'm laughing as I type - P6 Conference and it may have some psychological value to people who actually matter but in the final analysis it might actually be a good thing for the MWC. I say that because the MWC is in dire need of a swift kick in the ass.

4. What kind of kick in the ass could result from additional evidence that the MWC is falling behind the AAC? Two things hopefully. One, the firing of Craig Thompson and the replacing of him by someone who is at least competent to say nothing of the possibility the conference presidents could find a commissioner who is actually GOOD. Two, the forcing out of San Jose State which will forever sit in the cart and expect to be pulled along by everybody else while demanding the same amount of the modest revenue pie.

I think its going to be bigger than that.  The Big East gets 4 million a team.  So, unless ESPN doesnt really want UConn content and would prefer to see them on FOX---the deal probably needs to exceed 4 million.   Additionally, UConn, Cincy, and USF have all been receiving subsidy payments from the Realignment Fund (the fund mainly consisted of exit fees and left behind NCAA credits).  That fund is now exhausted.  Those teams have been receiving a payout about 6 million higher than the rest of the conference.  So, the new deal needs to be about 8 million just for those schools to break even.  I just dont see those 3 schools signing off on a 4 million dollar deal without at least testing the free market waters.  That just seems unlikely to me.  My guess is the deal is probably closer to 6-8 million a team.  That would be enough that UConn would take a solid pay cut in the Big East---and its close enough to "break even"  for those old Big East legacy schools---that they may fear they might not be able to match it in the open market.      

One other thing worth noting--and it might shed light on UofMTigers post.  The current deal still has one more year to run.  ESPN is the only network that could bump the payout NEXT year.  So, perhaps its 6 or 7 million a year for a 6 year deal and the final year of the current deal is bumped to 4 million a team.  That might be a reason for those old Big East teams to to say--"close enough"---since they would getting some financial relief immediately.  

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On 2/23/2019 at 10:23 PM, UofMTigers said:

I've also add I've made my guess. 6 years, 300 million total, or 4.17 million per team running til 2026 to stay with ESPN.

I believe you’ll be pleasantly surprised if this is your expectation.  Better to be surprised than disappointed.  

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9 hours ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

I think its going to be bigger than that.  The Big East gets 4 million a team.  So, unless ESPN doesnt really want UConn content and would prefer to see them on FOX---the deal probably needs to exceed 4 million.   Additionally, UConn, Cincy, and USF have all been receiving subsidy payments from the Realignment Fund (the fund mainly consisted of exit fees and left behind NCAA credits).  That fund is now exhausted.  Those teams have been receiving a payout about 6 million higher than the rest of the conference.  So, the new deal needs to be about 8 million just for those schools to break even.  I just dont see those 3 schools signing off on a 4 million dollar deal without at least testing the free market waters.  That just seems unlikely to me.  My guess is the deal is probably closer to 6-8 million a team.  That would be enough that UConn would take a solid pay cut in the Big East---and its close enough to "break even"  for those old Big East legacy schools---that they may fear they might not be able to match it in the open market.      

One other thing worth noting--and it might shed light on UofMTigers post.  The current deal still has one more year to run.  ESPN is the only network that could bump the payout NEXT year.  So, perhaps its 6 or 7 million a year for a 6 year deal and the final year of the current deal is bumped to 4 million a team.  That might be a reason for those old Big East teams to to say--"close enough"---since they would getting some financial relief immediately.  

That's not how it works.  Not saying that $6-$8 million couldn't happen, but you don't ask your boss for a raise because you have a high house payment...you ask for a raise based on the value you bring to the table for the company.  I do think that the AAC payout per team will significantly outpace that of the MWC, just based on the value of the larger audience the AAC brings to ESPN.  

JMHO, but I'd guess $4-$5 million for the top end.  The "free market waters" aren't covered in extra floating cash (see Disney's financially-stalling ESPN as the primary example).  My guess is that ESPN wants the AAC and will offer fair market value that other entities won't surpass. 

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So much optimism in this thread over a TV contract for a G5 conference.  I would be THRILLED as an AAC fan to get $4M per team...

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2 hours ago, SparkysDad said:

That's not how it works.  Not saying that $6-$8 million couldn't happen, but you don't ask your boss for a raise because you have a high house payment...you ask for a raise based on the value you bring to the table for the company.  I do think that the AAC payout per team will significantly outpace that of the MWC, just based on the value of the larger audience the AAC brings to ESPN.  

JMHO, but I'd guess $4-$5 million for the top end.  The "free market waters" aren't covered in extra floating cash (see Disney's financially-stalling ESPN as the primary example).  My guess is that ESPN wants the AAC and will offer fair market value that other entities won't surpass. 

 

I think you're absolutely right.  An employee wouldnt ask a boss for a raise and cite his house payment as the reason why he's worth more.  However, an employee who believes he is worth more than he is offered by his boss AND has a high house payment wont typically just take "no" from his employer as the last word on his value.  That employee will get on Linked In and Indeed and see what his value is on the open market before giving up his quest for more revenue.  So my point isnt that it proves the AAC is worth 6-8 million.  My point is that these old Big East schools looking at a pay cut arent likely to take a low ball offer without at least checking out their open market offers.  Heck, the exclusive negotiating period isnt even over yet.  There simply isnt any incentive to just fold this early in the process---unless your basically getting what you asked for.  What I am suggesting is thats exactly what happened---the AAC is getting exactly what they asked for (or close enough that the added benefit of ESPN exposure makes the offer on the table the preferred option---even if they might get slightly more in the open market).    Given that Aresco has stated that the value of the AAC is several multiples of what it is now and one of the presidents on the negotiatiing teams has publicly stated the value range expectation as 6-8 million per team---it seems unlikely they would pull the plug on the negotiations this early in the process to accept 4 million a team.

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The reality is that since the deal has come during the exclusive negotiating period that the AAC must be content with the outcome.  The next step is to see what some of the AAC power brokers have gone public with as it relates to their expectations to get a sense of what's realistic.  All I can find is when the UM AD said he wanted at least 8m/team.  This number has come up before so I think that's more realistic than ~4m/team.  

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17 minutes ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

 

I think you're absolutely right.  An employee wouldnt ask a boss for a raise and cite his house payment as the reason why he's worth more.  However, an employee who believes he is worth more than he is offered by his boss AND has a high house payment wont typically just take "no" from his employer as the last word on his value.  That employee will get on Linked In and Indeed and see what his value is on the open market before giving up his quest for more revenue.  So my point isnt that it proves the AAC is worth 6-8 million.  My point is that these old Big East schools looking at a pay cut arent likely to take a low ball offer without at least checking out their open market offers.  Heck, the exclusive negotiating period isnt even over yet.  There simply isnt any incentive to just fold this early in the process---unless your basically getting what you asked for.  What I am suggesting is thats exactly what happened---the AAC is getting exactly what they asked for (or close enough that the added benefit of ESPN exposure makes the offer on the table the preferred option---even if they might get slightly more in the open market).    Given that Aresco has stated that the value of the AAC is several multiples of what it is now and one of the presidents on the negotiatiing teams has publicly stated the value range expectation as 6-8 million per team---it seems unlikely they would pull the plug on the negotiations this early in the process to accept 4 million a team.

Aren't the "old Big East schools" doing this anyway?

The new deal, regardless of the numbers, isn't going to have any affect on the motivation of any particular school to do what is in their best interest.

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45 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

Deja Vu from February 11?

Bowen calls the new deal a "game changer" for the conference and membership.  He says its "amazing what is happening in our favor".   IMHO---I dont see how anyone could term 4 million a year is a "game changer"---makes me think the deal is more lucrative than that.  He says it will be announced within a week to a week and half---so it sounds like we will find out pretty soon what the definition of "game changer" is to Tom Bowen.  

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6-8 million a year aint a game changer either.  Not the game the AAC is trying to play.  But Aresco will try and sell it as 'P6' proof, because in this war he's the Iraqi Minister of Information.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

Bowen calls the new deal a "game changer" for the conference and membership.  He says its "amazing what is happening in our favor".   IMHO---I dont see how anyone could term 4 million a year is a "game changer"---makes me think the deal is more lucrative than that.  He says it will be announced within a week to a week and half---so it sounds like we will find out pretty soon what the definition of "game changer" is to Tom Bowen.  

This is getting interesting.  Thanks for sharing the info.

If they AAC gets ~8M, that  would be a large increase and big deal.   We'll see....

 

ESPN PROPERTIES:

AAC

BYU

BOISE

PAC12 (shared with FOX)

 

I think ESPN also possibly buys a few games from the MWC---maybe more?.   We'll see. Hair Thompson was trying to move to streaming platforms---Facebook being the big one.

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35 minutes ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

Bowen calls the new deal a "game changer" for the conference and membership.  He says its "amazing what is happening in our favor".   IMHO---I dont see how anyone could term 4 million a year is a "game changer"---makes me think the deal is more lucrative than that.  He says it will be announced within a week to a week and half---so it sounds like we will find out pretty soon what the definition of "game changer" is to Tom Bowen.  

This is the only place I've heard people mention ~4m/team for the AAC.  The numbers running in the eastern media is at least double that.  

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50 minutes ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

Bowen calls the new deal a "game changer" for the conference and membership.  He says its "amazing what is happening in our favor".   IMHO---I dont see how anyone could term 4 million a year is a "game changer"---makes me think the deal is more lucrative than that.  He says it will be announced within a week to a week and half---so it sounds like we will find out pretty soon what the definition of "game changer" is to Tom Bowen.  

'The Heir' told the Memphis media the same thing he did weeks ago and desperation makes this into breaking news.  Good PR is making the same ol' shit sound brand spanking new and TB really polished that turd well.

I have not heard the quote 'game-changer' attributed to TB - I didn't listen or read a transcript of the interview but I have seen no reports where TB appears to be off talking points or breaking any news.  

The next commissioner of the MW shouldn't let a morning radio talk show host trap him into blowing the conference's tv deal.

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3 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

This is getting interesting.  Thanks for sharing the info.

If they AAC gets ~8M, that  would be a large increase and big deal.   We'll see....

 

ESPN PROPERTIES:

AAC

BYU

BOISE

PAC12 (shared with FOX)

 

I think ESPN also possibly buys a few games from the MWC---maybe more?.   We'll see. Hair Thompson was trying to move to streaming platforms---Facebook being the big one.

If the AAC ends up getting $6M-$8M per school (which I don't believe will happen but then I'm not brainwashed from reading the AAC board) AND if King Craig moves MWC broadcasts to the Zuckerburg Network for just half that amount, there had better be some defections from the Molehill Worst.

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16 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

If the AAC ends up getting $6M-$8M per school (which I don't believe will happen but then I'm not brainwashed from reading the AAC board) AND if King Craig moves MWC broadcasts to the Zuckerburg Network for just half that amount, there had better be some defections from the Molehill Worst.

SDSU and BOISE join the AAC as "football only" again?

Maybe join the WCC for all other sports???

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1 minute ago, #1Stunner said:

SDSU and BOISE join the AAC as "football only" again?

Maybe join the WCC for all other sports???

I think it's more likely that SDSU and Fresno State would join the AAC for football only and the Big West for Olys.

By doing so we would raise our national visibility in football while saving a bunch on travel expenses for our Olys and gain Tier 3 broadcast rights which would neutralize the pittance made from MWC membership.

Boise with its great recruiting classes can remain in the MWC and bleed everybody else dry.

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Why not just have the entire Mountain West as a football only conference with the West division schools in the Big West and the Mountain division schools in the Big Sky?

Each conference would play a single round for most olympic sports season, although you'd probably want to add home and home series for the rivalries

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