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Bruininthebay

American Athletic and ESPN do not reach agreement during exclusive negotiations for new TV deal

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Guest #1Stunner
21 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I think it would significantly raise the MWC’s basketball profile to be the premier west coast basketball conference.  

Fan attendance would be far superior to the PAC12, even.

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9 hours ago, Joe from WY said:

Is that some kind of AOC/Democrat math? 

My high school chemistry teacher taught us that many moons ago - I think as a lesson on significant digits and/or rounding.

Anything from 1.5 - 2.4 could be considered "2".  As such 2 + 2 could be 3 (1.5 + 1.5), 4 (2.0 + 2.0) or even 5 (2.4 + 2.4).

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2 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

Fan attendance would be far superior to the PAC12, even.

No.  Byu and Gonzaga would raise the MWC by 400 per game (last years numbers).  Still below Pac12.  Even if you assume a bump in attendance for one game for each of 8 conf opponents, it would be a small one.  Because of arena size, The Zags would actually bring the average down.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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and the numbers are out...no one said anything about an official press release.

as I've already stated in 2013 the numbers started coming out the last week of February but there wasn't an official announcement from the AAC/ESPN until 3/19

but if you want to try holding your breath I won't stop you :-)

mem skyline sig.jpeg

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Guest #1Stunner
17 minutes ago, Scooter said:

They do??  When are those games on?  I never see BYU on TV anymore. 

In fact I never see BYU except when they play Utah.

You'll need to somehow get access to ESPN

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50 minutes ago, Scooter said:

They do??  When are those games on?  I never see BYU on TV anymore. 

In fact I never see BYU except when they play Utah.

Looks like there are lots of opportunities to watch BYU on TV.  I would like to see AAC games replace McNeese State, NIU, and UMass.  BYU could play 3 MWC teams (Utah State and Boise State annually plus 1 more MWC team) and 3 AAC teams.  Surely BYU and AAC could work something out, especially for late season games for BYU.

BYU HOME GAMES:

California, ESPN2

McNeese State, BYUtv

Utah State, ESPN2

Hawaii, ESPN2

Northern Illinois, ESPNU

New Mexico State, ESPN2

BYU AWAY GAMES:

Arizona, ESPN

Wisconsin, ABC

Washington, FOX

Boise State, ESPN2

UMass, ES/NESN

Utah, FS1

 

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42 minutes ago, Scooter said:

They do??  When are those games on?  I never see BYU on TV anymore. 

In fact I never see BYU except when they play Utah.

2018 BYU home games: ESPN2 - 4 games, ESPNU - 1 game, BYUtv - 1 game

2018 BYU road/neutral games: ABC - 1 game, Fox - 1 game, ESPN - 2 games, ESPN2 - 1 game, FS1 - 1 game, BYUtv - 1 game

Friday games - 2

Saturday kickoff by 4 pm MT - 4

Saturday kickoff between 4 and 8 pm MT - 2

Saturday kickoff after 8 pm MT - 5

https://byucougars.com/schedule/football/2018

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Guest #1Stunner
12 minutes ago, Tulsa Guy said:

Looks like there are lots of opportunities to watch BYU on TV.  I would like to see AAC games replace McNeese State, NIU, and UMass.  BYU could play 3 MWC teams (Utah State and Boise State annually plus 1 more MWC team) and 3 AAC teams.  Surely BYU and AAC could work something out, especially for late season games for BYU.

BYU HOME GAMES:

California, ESPN2

McNeese State, BYUtv

Utah State, ESPN2

Hawaii, ESPN2

Northern Illinois, ESPNU

New Mexico State, ESPN2

BYU AWAY GAMES:

Arizona, ESPN

Wisconsin, ABC

Washington, FOX

Boise State, ESPN2

UMass, ES/NESN

Utah, FS1

 

BYU has quite a few AAC games lined up for future seasons.

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/byu/

 

I'd like to see BYU and Tulsa schedule a series.   That would be fun.

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Tom Bowen's contract as athletic director at Memphis has been extended ...  but only until the end of the year.  Perhaps his record as athletic director isn't so stellar in the eyes of senior administration? The contract is "through the end of the calendar year until our new AAC conference media rights deal is finalized and the overall financial picture of the University of Memphis Athletic Department for the next several years is clear” per University of Memphis President M. David Rudd. 

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/columnists/mark-giannotto/2019/03/11/memphis-ad-tom-bowen-agrees-six-month-contract-extension/3136191002/

In the printed quotation of the Univ of Memphis president I can't tell if the condition is the end of the year or the completion of the media rights deal, but the use of the phrase 'media rights' sticks out.  

There is a lot of uncertainty about the value of sports media rights caused by the tepid bidding for 21 regional sports networks (mostly not in the western half of the United States) Disney has for sale that it must sell to get regulators approval.  If the American is seeking to get money for 'third tier' media rights, the regional sports networks whom broadcast professional baseball and other sports are the likely purchasers but if there isn't a present owner of that RSN then no one can decide to purchase the rights for a particular university's athletic program.  The Disney/Fox sale revealed that rather than the $20 billion or so they sought, bidders were only offering bids in the $10 billion range.  If the value of RSNs in markets where American Athletic Conference universities are located is half what the seller expected it to be, it does not bode well for the potential of AAC universities to find as much revenue as they might expect for broadcasting games to viewers in those areas through media rights at those RSNs.

The MW is in a slightly different situation due to AT&T operating a RSN with an interest in broadcasting Mountain division content and that isn't held up by a sale directed by federal regulators. San Diego is where an RSN is included in the sale but the stadium situation is more immediate so hopefully by the time the owner of the new RSN can purchase Aztec media rights, the particulars of the stadium purchase and sale will be completed so that the full value of Aztec media sports in a market without the Chargers can be obtained by the university.

Finally, the Mountain West should wait and see about what happens regarding San Jose State's Football Operations Building fundraising April deadine.  If the Spartans don't meet the $40 million goal by the deadline, it's possible they'll have to make a decision like Humboldt State; the CSU Chancellor established a precedent so the Spartans may have to decide to compete in a conference where their athletic budget is competitive rather than continue in the Mountain West.

Personally I think that a competitive conference with games that deserve wider audiences is a selling point to potential media partners so an increased proportion of games that are competitive at a high level increases the value of the media property.  I guess the MW  remains at 11 without SJSU until 2026 when media rights come up again or expansion happens 2024ish.

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Tweet by USA Today Sports Writer Dan Wolken @Dan Wolken:

"By next year the AAC will surpass the Big East in basketball."

Wolken realizes that the recent strong recruiting classes of Wichita, Memphis, and UConn which led to their much improved play this year will provide steep competition to Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and Temple in 2020. 

RPI COLLEGE BASKETBALL RANKINGS:

1. Big 12

2. B1G

3. ACC

4. SEC

5. Big East

6. AAC

7. PAC 12

8. WCC

9. MAC.

10. Ivy

11. Southern

12. Atlantic 10

13. CUSA

14. MVC

15. WAC

16. Mountain West

17. Sun Belt

18. CAA

19. Patriot

20. Ohio Valley

 

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1 hour ago, Tulsa Guy said:

Tweet by USA Today Sports Writer Dan Wolken @Dan Wolken:

"By next year the AAC will surpass the Big East in basketball."

Wolken realizes that the recent strong recruiting classes of Wichita, Memphis, and UConn which led to their much improved play this year will provide steep competition to Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and Temple in 2020. 

RPI COLLEGE BASKETBALL RANKINGS:

1. Big 12

2. B1G

3. ACC

4. SEC

5. Big East

6. AAC

7. PAC 12

8. WCC

9. MAC.

10. Ivy

11. Southern

12. Atlantic 10

13. CUSA

14. MVC

15. WAC

16. Mountain West

17. Sun Belt

18. CAA

19. Patriot

20. Ohio Valley

 

Just another data point showing MWC and WAC play at a similar level top to bottom.  Nevada is obviously the best team in either league, but after that it's pretty even.

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20 hours ago, Bruininthebay said:

Tom Bowen's contract as athletic director at Memphis has been extended ...  but only until the end of the year.  Perhaps his record as athletic director isn't so stellar in the eyes of senior administration? The contract is "through the end of the calendar year until our new AAC conference media rights deal is finalized and the overall financial picture of the University of Memphis Athletic Department for the next several years is clear” per University of Memphis President M. David Rudd. 

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/columnists/mark-giannotto/2019/03/11/memphis-ad-tom-bowen-agrees-six-month-contract-extension/3136191002/

In the printed quotation of the Univ of Memphis president I can't tell if the condition is the end of the year or the completion of the media rights deal, but the use of the phrase 'media rights' sticks out.  

There is a lot of uncertainty about the value of sports media rights caused by the tepid bidding for 21 regional sports networks (mostly not in the western half of the United States) Disney has for sale that it must sell to get regulators approval.  If the American is seeking to get money for 'third tier' media rights, the regional sports networks whom broadcast professional baseball and other sports are the likely purchasers but if there isn't a present owner of that RSN then no one can decide to purchase the rights for a particular university's athletic program.  The Disney/Fox sale revealed that rather than the $20 billion or so they sought, bidders were only offering bids in the $10 billion range.  If the value of RSNs in markets where American Athletic Conference universities are located is half what the seller expected it to be, it does not bode well for the potential of AAC universities to find as much revenue as they might expect for broadcasting games to viewers in those areas through media rights at those RSNs.

The MW is in a slightly different situation due to AT&T operating a RSN with an interest in broadcasting Mountain division content and that isn't held up by a sale directed by federal regulators. San Diego is where an RSN is included in the sale but the stadium situation is more immediate so hopefully by the time the owner of the new RSN can purchase Aztec media rights, the particulars of the stadium purchase and sale will be completed so that the full value of Aztec media sports in a market without the Chargers can be obtained by the university.

Finally, the Mountain West should wait and see about what happens regarding San Jose State's Football Operations Building fundraising April deadine.  If the Spartans don't meet the $40 million goal by the deadline, it's possible they'll have to make a decision like Humboldt State; the CSU Chancellor established a precedent so the Spartans may have to decide to compete in a conference where their athletic budget is competitive rather than continue in the Mountain West.

Personally I think that a competitive conference with games that deserve wider audiences is a selling point to potential media partners so an increased proportion of games that are competitive at a high level increases the value of the media property.  I guess the MW  remains at 11 without SJSU until 2026 when media rights come up again or expansion happens 2024ish.

 

I dont think the Disney RSN's are even remotely related to the AAC deal.  First, these individual RSN's have very small contractually defined footprints and primarily make their money off carriage fees.  These carriage fees are almost entirely driven by the local sports franchise rights each RSN owns.  These RSN's buy additional third tier rights for filler.  There is little difference in the subscriber levels if the RSN has local college rights or does not.  So college rights are not driving the subscriber level or the bottom line.  College sports is simply filler for RSN's.  Basically, if you looking to the RSN to drive conference value---your conference is in huge trouble.  There is little money for college sports rights at the RSN level.  These networks spend their rights money on pro sports rights.   Thats their bread and butter.  If they dont have college rights, it's no big deal.  They just rerun some talking head show that costs them virtually nothing to produce.   

 

Honestly, I think the reason these RSN's are not bringing the expected value on the market is two fold. 

1)  These are RSN's are risky operations.  They are entirely dependent on one set of sports rights for value.  Lose the local sports team rights and the network is all but worthless. 

2)  They are essentially 21 freestanding independent operations who's primary value is locked up in pro sports rights that cannot be shared with the other networks.  There really is no economy of scale or synergism created by owning them all.  There is only one company that might benefit from buying them all--and Im not sure they have the money---STADIUM.  Having a dedicated outlet for their 24-7 sports programming and their live sports programming in 21 major media markets could be very valuable to STADIUM.       

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11 hours ago, Tulsa Guy said:

Tweet by USA Today Sports Writer Dan Wolken @Dan Wolken:

"By next year the AAC will surpass the Big East in basketball."

Wolken realizes that the recent strong recruiting classes of Wichita, Memphis, and UConn which led to their much improved play this year will provide steep competition to Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and Temple in 2020. 

RPI COLLEGE BASKETBALL RANKINGS:

1. Big 12

2. B1G

3. ACC

4. SEC

5. Big East

6. AAC

7. PAC 12

8. WCC

9. MAC.

10. Ivy

11. Southern

12. Atlantic 10

13. CUSA

14. MVC

15. WAC

16. Mountain West

17. Sun Belt

18. CAA

19. Patriot

20. Ohio Valley

 

Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. What we know is that this year The Big East will distribute more tourney credits then the AAC. This was with the Big East only drawing on 5 seasons of tourneys instead of the full 6, and this is also including (for the AAC) the last year of the old Big East, and that first year of the AAC when they had Louisville. Also have to take in to account the AAC has more schools. 

If you want to believe the AAC will pass the Big East, more power to you. But up to this point there has been no point comparing the two; the Big East has been a power conference, and the American has not.

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22 hours ago, Bruininthebay said:

Tom Bowen's contract as athletic director at Memphis has been extended ...  but only until the end of the year. 

yep, Bowen is a West Coast guy who graduated from San Francisco that we hired away from SJSU. He has made it known he wants to get back out West after 7 years in Memphis. He interviewed for the Cal AD position and was kinda pissed he didn't get.

but I'm sure our resident TV Contract Alex Jones will have a whole list of reasons about how this is related to the ongoing scheme by Memphis, Bowen, and Rudd to pull the wool over everyone's eyes lol

Memphis would immediately hire our former Asst Athletics Director Mark Alnutt who to the AD position at Buffalo a few years back. 

mem skyline sig.jpeg

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TulsaGuy was a straight C student throughout high school who, at his graduation ceremony, insisted on telling out-of-state relatives how his class had a B+ grade point average.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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3 hours ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

Honestly, I think the reason these RSN's are not bringing the expected value on the market is two fold. 

1)  These are RSN's are risky operations.  They are entirely dependent on one set of sports rights for value.  Lose the local sports team rights and the network is all but worthless. 

2)  They are essentially 21 freestanding independent operations who's primary value is locked up in pro sports rights that cannot be shared with the other networks.  There really is no economy of scale or synergism created by owning them all.  There is only one company that might benefit from buying them all--and Im not sure they have the money---STADIUM.  Having a dedicated outlet for their 24-7 sports programming and their live sports programming in 21 major media markets could be very valuable to STADIUM.       

Please keep in mind that Houston has an existing relationship with an AT&T RSN so exactly what that means and what it is worth is included in your current media revenues somehow now and is not of negligible value (or why do the deal?).

The big revelation of these talks was that the sellers sought ~$20 billion and the bidders all offered ~$10 billion.  Amazon and Sinclair acquired a minority interest at the same time that the Yankees purchased a controlling interest in the YES network so it is clear that some RSNs do have value.  https://ballparkdigest.com/2019/03/11/yankees-amazon-sinclair-close-on-yes-network-deal-report/  It may not be the case that all of them have as much value as they were thought to.

RSNs are often the single most expensive channel on a cable company when rights fees are considered.  ESPN also has a high cable sub rights fee but not as high as most RSNs do.  Revenue is derived from advertising and cable subscription fees by both RSNs and by ESPN so if there is uncertainty about the value of the underlying business then it will muddy the waters until the sale is completed and probably delay when those businesses are ready to enter the market for new media rights.

The RSNs are 'upstream' from college football conferences and the value of a deal for these media rights are multiple orders of magnitude greater that of the media rights for football conferences.  A number of these RSNs would be potential purchasers of a conference's media rights so uncertainty about how well the overall sports media business in a particular media market is doing reduces the interest in the rights to the particular sports properties in those particular markets.  If there is uncertainty it is likely that buyers are fewer and offering lower prices than they might in the future.

 

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8 hours ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

 

I dont think the Disney RSN's are even remotely related to the AAC deal.  First, these individual RSN's have very small contractually defined footprints and primarily make their money off carriage fees.  These carriage fees are almost entirely driven by the local sports franchise rights each RSN owns.  These RSN's buy additional third tier rights for filler.  There is little difference in the subscriber levels if the RSN has local college rights or does not.  So college rights are not driving the subscriber level or the bottom line.  College sports is simply filler for RSN's.  Basically, if you looking to the RSN to drive conference value---your conference is in huge trouble.  There is little money for college sports rights at the RSN level.  These networks spend their rights money on pro sports rights.   Thats their bread and butter.  If they dont have college rights, it's no big deal.  They just rerun some talking head show that costs them virtually nothing to produce.   

 

Honestly, I think the reason these RSN's are not bringing the expected value on the market is two fold. 

1)  These are RSN's are risky operations.  They are entirely dependent on one set of sports rights for value.  Lose the local sports team rights and the network is all but worthless. 

2)  They are essentially 21 freestanding independent operations who's primary value is locked up in pro sports rights that cannot be shared with the other networks.  There really is no economy of scale or synergism created by owning them all.  There is only one company that might benefit from buying them all--and Im not sure they have the money---STADIUM.  Having a dedicated outlet for their 24-7 sports programming and their live sports programming in 21 major media markets could be very valuable to STADIUM.       

There are two other broadcast platforms in addition to ESPN and ESPN2 where most AAC games are telecast.  ACC network starts in 2019 and that will open up 2 slots for AAC.  The BiG, and SEC Networks carry 2 football games each Saturday so I am assuming ACC Network will also carry 2 games on Saturday. Given the ACC Network, my guess it is the Thursday and Friday night games on ESPN that may get involved in the AAC TV contract negotiations and give AAC additional exposure.  The ACC has been the primary (but not the only conference) competitor for those Thursday and Friday night TV slots.  The second platform is ESPN+. 

I have no clue regarding RSN.  The Southwest network does carry mostly professional games as you say.  The Oklahoma network mostly carries what is already on Southwest Network.  The Oklahoma RSN will throw in mostly Olympic college sports, especially women, and some high school games.  I don't watch either channel because I don't follow professional sports and the college teams I follow are generally on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and CBSS.  My guess is that AAC Commissioner Aresco has the goal of trying to move as many AAC games telecast on ESPNU and CBSSN to ESPN and ESPN2...but who really knows what is going on?

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6 hours ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

TulsaGuy was a straight C student throughout high school who, at his graduation ceremony, insisted on telling out-of-state relatives how his class had a B+ grade point average.

1991 Freedom Bowl:  Itty Bitty Tulsa 28, Sleeping Giant 17

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5 hours ago, Tulsa Guy said:

There are two other broadcast platforms in addition to ESPN and ESPN2 where most AAC games are telecast.  ACC network starts in 2019 and that will open up 2 slots for AAC.  The BiG, and SEC Networks carry 2 football games each Saturday so I am assuming ACC Network will also carry 2 games on Saturday. Given the ACC Network, my guess it is the Thursday and Friday night games on ESPN that may get involved in the AAC TV contract negotiations and give AAC additional exposure.  The ACC has been the primary (but not the only conference) competitor for those Thursday and Friday night TV slots.  The second platform is ESPN+. 

I have no clue regarding RSN.  The Southwest network does carry mostly professional games as you say.  The Oklahoma network mostly carries what is already on Southwest Network.  The Oklahoma RSN will throw in mostly Olympic college sports, especially women, and some high school games.  I don't watch either channel because I don't follow professional sports and the college teams I follow are generally on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and CBSS.  My guess is that AAC Commissioner Aresco has the goal of trying to move as many AAC games telecast on ESPNU and CBSSN to ESPN and ESPN2...but who really knows what is going on?

 

I doubt the first season of the ACC Network will have much affect on the current availability of broadcast windows on the Disney Networks.  Most of the inventory slated to fill the ACC Network is third tier ACC content obtained from Raycom (that's why Raycom is pretty much history after this year).   ESPN may slide a few better games from their 1rst/2nd tier inventory to make the network easier to sell to cable operators--but these limited moves are NOT going to leave ESPN scrambling to fill 2 or 3  vacant broadcast windows each Saturday.  Im guessing Disney will have less than ten vacant slots to fill all season as a result of the ACC Network---and that number is probably way high.  The real number could  just 3 or 4...or even zero.    

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