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retrofade

Democrat Thunderdome - 2020 Democratic Candidate Thread

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48 minutes ago, Orange said:

You sure are positive about who to disqualify with 15 months to go.

History is a thing. If you look at Trump 2016, Clinton 2016, Romney 2012, Obama 2008, and McCain 2008 Obama was the only one not leading the polls with 15 months to go, and he was in second. Don’t feel like going back farther then that, but I imagine you would see more of the same. Sure, the fourth highest person in the polls that is over 20 points behind the leader COULD win the nomination.... but it’s incredibly unlikely. 

 

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7 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

History is a thing. If you look at Trump 2016, Clinton 2016, Romney 2012, Obama 2008, and McCain 2008 Obama was the only one not leading the polls with 15 months to go, and he was in second. Don’t feel like going back farther then that, but I imagine you would see more of the same. Sure, the fourth highest person in the polls that is over 20 points behind the leader COULD win the nomination.... but it’s incredibly unlikely. 

 

Perhaps my knee is jerking because every Republican under the sun has told me that Dem candidates leading Trump in hypothetical election polls do not matter because, Hillary.

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5 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

History is a thing. If you look at Trump 2016, Clinton 2016, Romney 2012, Obama 2008, and McCain 2008 Obama was the only one not leading the polls with 15 months to go, and he was in second. Don’t feel like going back farther then that, but I imagine you would see more of the same. Sure, the fourth highest person in the polls that is over 20 points behind the leader COULD win the nomination.... but it’s incredibly unlikely. 

 

Those are good points but history also tells us Biden has been a failed candidate several times. Weird election season. Might buck historical norms.

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5 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

History is a thing. If you look at Trump 2016, Clinton 2016, Romney 2012, Obama 2008, and McCain 2008 Obama was the only one not leading the polls with 15 months to go, and he was in second. Don’t feel like going back farther then that, but I imagine you would see more of the same. Sure, the fourth highest person in the polls that is over 20 points behind the leader COULD win the nomination.... but it’s incredibly unlikely. 

 

McCain had slipped and was on the verge of having to close out his campaign until late fall/early winter in 2007. Clinton looked dead in the water in 91 and then pulled off a miracle comeback. 

Here's how I see the race right now... we have ~12 candidates that are going to last past mid-September, after the third debate. Some may drop out between now and then as well. There are currently 10 candidates who have qualified for the 3rd debate, which I enumerated above. The only two others that I could see getting in are Steyer and possibly Gabbard. That leaves Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Inslee, and others who were getting ~1% of the polls by and large. We'll say that equates out to be about 2-3%, and then you combine that with the 15-20% who say they have no clue who they're going to vote for, and you have somewhere around ~15-20% of the potential voting electorate that hasn't made up their minds or whose preferred candidate dropped out. 

Additionally, Biden is scuffling again, and a bad debate performance may be a death nail for his campaign. Harris keeps changing her mind on things, and had a lackluster 2nd debate. A lackluster 3rd combined with overall negative opinions of her, particularly among African American men may spell the end for her. Buttigieg is sinking like a stone right now, and I think all but his diehard supporters are going to fall off of the Pete wagon by mid-October unless he can score another huge fundraising haul for Q3, which is doubtful because I think all of his biggest donors maxed out already. Sanders and Warren are going to cannabalize each other, but I don't think Bernie will drop out regardless of his polling numbers. 

Now, we look at who might be best equipped to take a chunk of the ~-15-20% undecideds + support from candidates that dropped out, and you're really only left with a couple. Yang can't win, though he's made the next debates. Klobuchar, barring some breakout moment, is doubtful to pick them up despite being one of the few moderate candidates left in the race. Booker is charismatic and has some good plans, and appeals to African-American voters among others. Beto's numbers are on the rise right now, and a return to his unorthodox campaign style plus willingness to keep going after Trump more than anyone else and propensity to create viral moments (2-3 of them in the last 10 days alone) could propel him as both a pseudo-moderate and most importantly to the undecideds according to crosstabs, the candidate who can beat Trump. Bernie has both a ceiling and a floor. Warren is likeable to a lot of people, but has a lot of baggage, and she let the native American/Pocahontas thing go on for far too long so it's an easy target for Trump in a general. 

Barring a debate flop, I think Beto can capture a lot of those undecideds, and I think that Booker if he performs well can do the same. I don't think any of the other candidates that are going to be in the fall debates stand much of a chance. The real wild-card, especially for the voters whose top priority is beating Trump, is going to be Steyer. His "Need to Impeach" movement was a masterstroke because it set himself up as a huge Trump threat, he's willing to spend a ton of money, and he was able to --- I'd argue in bad faith --- gain a HUGE email list for grassroots fundraising. 

I'll be interesting to see how this all plays out, but there's a lot left to see before it's over, and this campaign is more national than any other has been in my life.... and that could help both Beto and Steyer before all is said and done. 

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4 hours ago, retrofade said:

Shapiro's logic leaves a lot to be desired in some instances...

Yes, the video is smarmy as hell, but it should be. If the sea levels were to rise, there wouldn't be a way to sell those houses, I guess except to climate change deniers or something... but good luck getting a mortgage company to sign off on that one. 

That's easy, they'll be "selling" their houses to all of us.

This will may make the 2008 bailout look like pitching pennies.

Middle America climate change deniers are going to love it!

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We're really not that far away from actual voting, Iowa is only about 5 months away and the primaries come quickly after that. Almost every poll has Biden nearly doubling his closest competitor. 

 

I think The Warren/Sanders wing will put up a fight, but splitting the vote with each other isn't helpful. I think Biden becomes the fairly clear winner by Super Tuesday 

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15 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Shapiro is the conservative voice of 20 years ago.  I respect the fact you listen to him.  I wish more in the GOP would.

Shapiro is not only much more intelligent than the average FoxNews doofus, unlike Sean Hannity he doesn't have his head fully up Donald Trump's rectum.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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3 hours ago, toonkee said:

Those are good points but history also tells us Biden has been a failed candidate several times. Weird election season. Might buck historical norms.

Biden could definitely come up short, I  just don’t see Harris getting the nom. I mean how would she pass him? She is an establishment candidate just like he is, so it’s not like she is going to suddenly get a ton of support from the farther left voters, they are firmly in the camps of Bernie and Warren. She already crushed Biden in a debate over a racial issue, and after that she not only couldn’t pass him in the general polls, she still lags behind him among black voters. Just doesn’t seem to be a path to victory for her.

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Another thing to note about Biden is that his favorables have dropped over 20 points in the last two months while he attempts to gaffe his way out of the race or simply ignores as many appearances as he can so that he doesn't keep saying stupid shit in front of cameras.

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15 hours ago, retrofade said:

 

"Hi, my name is Bill de Blasio. Polls show that just like Donald Trump, more people dislike me than like me. So I'm gonna make a great president!"

Boom goes the dynamite.

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15 hours ago, retrofade said:

In wake of Kamala's change on healthcare (again), and her refusal to take part in the CNN Climate forum... it looks like the media is starting to turn her into their new target. 

Harris was also off-base on the school busing thing. Making busing a requirement statewide is not the reason she attended better schools because there was already voluntary busing in Berkeley where she grew up.

For me, Harris is the roller coaster candidate with the most peaks but also the most valleys. As examples, on the one hand, she's very intelligent and has the feistiness necessary to defeat the fake president. OTOH, there's the busing thing plus she took some ludicrous and probably hypocritical positions as California's AG like prosecuting weed users to the max despite having consumed the substance herself for many years and now her healthcare position changes with the wind.

To return to Ben Shapiro, as he points out, although Sanders's position on the economy is too far left, you have to give the guy credit for being far more transparent than people like Harris, Warren and Gillibrand, all of whom seem to be taking their candidacy from the playbook of Hillary Clinton.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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2 hours ago, Orange said:

I'm not necessarily a rabid supporter, but I honestly think she has the best shot at putting Trump in his place in general election debates.  She's guaranteed to scare him shitless.

Okay I would not mind seeing that at all.

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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4 hours ago, sebasour said:

We're really not that far away from actual voting, Iowa is only about 5 months away and the primaries come quickly after that. Almost every poll has Biden nearly doubling his closest competitor. 

 

I think The Warren/Sanders wing will put up a fight, but splitting the vote with each other isn't helpful. I think Biden becomes the fairly clear winner by Super Tuesday 

Exactly. And once voting starts those results influence voters in other states. If Harris does poorly in the first few states then a decent amount of people that like her may start to see her as having no chance and vote for their second (or third) choice so they don’t “waste” their vote.

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3 hours ago, toonkee said:

Smart dude, but there's just too much "I've got it figured out at 19 years old" attitude. He reminds me of a younger me.  Technically correct isn't always the human answer. In fact it's almost always not.  We are computers but emotion based ones. Not sure Ben appreciates that enough yet to get the whole picture in my estimation.

As Happy said, it’s an act and the audience is got it all figured out 19 year olds. It’s tough to sell Edmund Burke to teenagers so I’ll always give him his due credit. But adults are better off listening to the editors podcast from national review to get thoughtful conservative takes. 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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Obama never had a "base" like Trump's. In fact, even this far into his first term a large percentage of Democrats still hated him for denying the nomination to Hillary. Let's call them Hillary's "base."

How many Republicans who voted for president in 2016 have that kind of animosity toward him? To put it another way, how many of the Republicans who lost in the primary actually had any base to speak of? Or if they did before then, how many of such bases still existed after the Republican convention? I'd say none. Ted Cruz had the evangelicals but once the convention occurred, they all threw their support behind Trump. Lock, stock and barrel despite what a despicable alleged "Christian" he was and still is.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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45 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

Obama never had a "base" like Trump's. In fact, even this far into his first term a large percentage of Democrats still hated him for denying the nomination to Hillary. Let's call them Hillary's "base."

How many Republicans who voted for president in 2016 have that kind of animosity toward him? To put it another way, how many of the Republicans who lost in the primary actually had any base to speak of? Or if they did before then, how many of such bases still existed after the Republican convention? I'd say none. Ted Cruz had the evangelicals but once the convention occurred, they all threw their support behind Trump. Lock, stock and barrel despite what a despicable alleged "Christian" he was and still is.

The "base" in the GOP is code for "Pro life."

That's really it.  Abortion has been wagging the GOP dog for about 40 years.  

I feel like the Dems could make marijuana its wedge-issue "base" and do very well, scooping up all libertarian and independent/moderate GOP votes, but, as usual, primary candidates are too stuck on kissing Grandma-the-Jay-Leno-fan's ass in Iowa to actually put forth some real change on an issue that almost ALL reasonable Americans agree on.

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2 hours ago, Orange said:

The "base" in the GOP is code for "Pro life."

That's really it.  Abortion has been wagging the GOP dog for about 40 years.  

I feel like the Dems could make marijuana its wedge-issue "base" and do very well, scooping up all libertarian and independent/moderate GOP votes, but, as usual, primary candidates are too stuck on kissing Grandma-the-Jay-Leno-fan's ass in Iowa to actually put forth some real change on an issue that almost ALL reasonable Americans agree on.

You might have something there. Evangelicals hate the Devil weed but other than cops they're about the only large group I can think of who view marijuana as being such a black and white issue and no cop or Evangelical is going to vote for a Democrat anyway. Maybe some old people too but I'm talking REALLY old like over 80 and given how many states have had medicinal Mary Jane for a decade or so, I'll bet even a bunch of them have changed their opinion of it.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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1 hour ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

You might have something there. Evangelicals hate the Devil weed but other than cops they're about the only large group I can think of who view marijuana as being such a black and white issue and no cop or Evangelical is going to vote for a Democrat anyway. Maybe some old people too but I'm talking REALLY old like over 80 and given how many states have had medicinal Mary Jane for a decade or so, I'll bet even a bunch of them have changed their opinion of it.

I'm not sure a large majority of cops really give a shit about legal weed.

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Inslee is out...

Quote

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is dropping out of the 2020 Democratic presidential race, he announced Wednesday night on MSNBC's "The Rachel Maddow Show."

Inslee plans to send an email to supporters on Thursday announcing that he will run for a third term as governor, two sources close to Inslee told NBC News on condition of anonymity.

"It's become clear that I'm not going to be carrying the ball. I'm not going to be the president, so I'm withdrawing tonight from the race," he told Maddow, vowing he'd help keep the other 2020 candidates focused on issue of climate change, the centerpiece of his campaign. "I've been fighting climate change for 25 years, and I've never been so confident of the ability of America now to reach critical mass to move the ball."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/jay-inslee-drops-out-2020-presidential-race-n1045066

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