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Democrat Thunderdome - 2020 Democratic Candidate Thread

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36 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

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The thing I find intriguing is what if Bernie pulls it off and is the dem nominee.  Is he really going to be able to stay "grass roots" and compete or will he sell his soul to the DNC and their PACs?

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On 2/19/2020 at 3:53 AM, sebasour said:

Latest poll from ABC and WaPo has Bernie up 15 points. 

 

It's starting to become inevitable.

Exactly how are they conducting those polls?  Are they polls of Democratic voters only?  If so, how do they handle voters in states like South Carolina where there is no Republican presidential primary and Republicans are reregistering as Democrats in order to vote for Sanders in the Democratic primary?

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A new California poll is showing Biden barely cracking viability at 17%, that contrasts a poll from a few days ago that every other non Bernie candidate below 15%

 

If Bernie gets every single delegate in California (something that's unlikely but definitely possible) this race is over.

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4 hours ago, toonkee said:

The thing I find intriguing is what if Bernie pulls it off and is the dem nominee.  Is he really going to be able to stay "grass roots" and compete or will he sell his soul to the DNC and their PACs?

Of course he’ll take the money. And he should. There’s no award for second place. 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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23 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Of course he’ll take the money. And he should. There’s no award for second place. 

But the political revolution will be compromised!

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10 minutes ago, toonkee said:

But the political revolution will be compromised!

It is the duty of the revolution to put an end to compromise, and to put an end to compromise means taking the path of socialist revolution.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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On 2/19/2020 at 8:25 AM, thelawlorfaithful said:

 

 

Cheer up fellas. It could always get worse. And it will.

It will get worse, it always does.

The states like CA moving their primaries up, has changed everything.  It has minimized south Carolina too.  Bubba would have been in trouble with the 2020 calendar in 1992.

What I didn't foresee, was Biden not raising money.

I think Bernie is going to get throttled if he is nominated, but what do I know.  I haven't guessed right on a nomination or election in a couple cycles.

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4 hours ago, sebasour said:

A new California poll is showing Biden barely cracking viability at 17%, that contrasts a poll from a few days ago that every other non Bernie candidate below 15%

 

If Bernie gets every single delegate in California (something that's unlikely but definitely possible) this race is over.

Nevada is going to be yuge; a big win by Bernie here will probably turn out even more early votes for Bernie in California. That could lead to the results already being too baked in for a surprisingly strong showing by Biden in South Carolina to change much. A big win in California and a win period in Texas probably either puts Bernie on a path to the majority of the delegates, or puts him so far ahead of the runner up that the DNC pulling some shenanigans would ensure the party would be too fractured to actually win the election. 

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13 hours ago, CPslograd said:

It will get worse, it always does.

The states like CA moving their primaries up, has changed everything.  It has minimized south Carolina too.  Bubba would have been in trouble with the 2020 calendar in 1992.

What I didn't foresee, was Biden not raising money.

I think Bernie is going to get throttled if he is nominated, but what do I know.  I haven't guessed right on a nomination or election in a couple cycles.

Here are the only incumbents who ran for reelection and lost:

Taft lost to Woodrow Wilson in 1912

Hoover lost to FDR in 1932

Carter lost to Reagan in 1980

George HW Bush lost to Clinton in 1992

Taft is irrelevant here because he sealed his own fate by hating on Teddy Roosevelt who most Republicans adored so many of them sat out the 1912 election or voted for Wilson. Hoover is irrelevant here because his sitting on his hands and doing nothing was a big reason why the country was in its worst-ever depression in 1932. Carter is irrelevant because he was a Democrat and not a Republican.

So the most relevant election to this one is 1992. Granted, the Dems' motto was "it's the economy, stupid" but although the economy wasn't strong, neither was it weak and a big reason the Dems were able to regain the White House is that they nominated a moderate. Bernie Sanders is as far from being moderate as any Democrat in memory. So I'm with those who say he will be a disaster candidate. Not George McGovern disasterous but I think if Bernie is the nominee, Trump won't just get reelected, this time he will win the popular vote too.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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3 hours ago, retrofade said:

Peter's campaign is on its last legs...

 

In the post debate “analysis” on CNN, Yang said one of his donors told him Bloomberg is convincing rich donors to save their money, he’s got this. If it’s true, they seem to be listening.

True or not, a stop Bernie campaign doesn’t seem to be developing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/democrat-megadonors-bernie-sanders-116556

 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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3 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

In the post debate “analysis” on CNN, Yang said one of his donors told him Bloomberg is convincing rich donors to save their money, he’s got this. If it’s true, they seem to be listening.

True or not, a stop Bernie campaign doesn’t seem to be developing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/democrat-megadonors-bernie-sanders-116556

 

Biden's donors have been doing much the same thing. Both Peter and Biden started to see a massive dry up of their donations after Bloomy got into the race. 

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14 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Biden's donors have been doing much the same thing. Both Peter and Biden started to see a massive dry up of their donations after Bloomy got into the race. 

It would certainly help "stop Bernie" if Biden and Pete got out.

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37 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

Here are the only incumbents who ran for reelection and lost:

Taft lost to Woodrow Wilson in 1912

Hoover lost to FDR in 1932

Carter lost to Reagan in 1980

George HW Bush lost to Clinton in 1992

Taft is irrelevant here because he sealed his own fate by hating on Teddy Roosevelt who most Republicans adored so many of them sat out the 1912 election or voted for Wilson. Hoover is irrelevant here because his sitting on his hands and doing nothing was a big reason why the country was in its worst-ever depression in 1932. Carter is irrelevant because he was a Democrat and not a Republican.

So the most relevant election to this one is 1992. Granted, the Dems' motto was "it's the economy, stupid" but although the economy wasn't strong, neither was it weak and a big reason the Dems were able to regain the White House is that they nominated a moderate. Bernie Sanders is as far from being moderate as any Democrat in memory. So I'm with those who say he will be a disaster candidate. Not George McGovern disasterous but I think if Bernie is the nominee, Trump won't just get reelected, this time he will win the popular vote too.

Cleveland, Van Buren, John Quincy; all lost as well, though Cleveland won again 4 years later.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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9 minutes ago, renoskier said:

It would certainly help "stop Bernie" if Biden and Pete got out.

It’s tough to tell the delegate leader in the clubhouse and the former front runner who still has a chance to be the delegate leader heading into Super Tuesday to pack it in.

I’m sympathetic though. John Kasich can kiss my ass forever.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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24 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

It’s tough to tell the delegate leader in the clubhouse and the former front runner who still has a chance to be the delegate leader heading into Super Tuesday to pack it in.

I’m sympathetic though. John Kasich can kiss my ass forever.

Who should Kasich have stepped out of the way for? Ted Cruz? I'm almost happier with Trump.

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1 minute ago, renoskier said:

Who should Kasich have stepped out of the way for? Ted Cruz? I'm almost happier with Trump.

Almost.

Who should Pete and Biden get out of the way for? 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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